Hillary Clinton leading Bernie Sanders in California by 18 points, poll finds

[Cali_Democrat]

Source: LA Daily News

Presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders is making a major campaign push in California in hopes of gaining ground on Democratic nomination frontrunner Hillary Clinton, but faces an 18-percentage-point gap among the state’s voters likely to participate in the Democratic primary, according to an ABC7-Southern California News Group poll released Monday.

Vermont Sen. Sanders, who on Saturday started a series of eight Southern California rallies over four-day period, is favored by 39 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, while former Secretary of State Clinton is preferred by 57 percent. The numbers are virtually identical to a poll by the same group released three weeks ago.

Read more: http://www.dailynews.com/government-and-politics/20160523/hillary-clinton-leading-bernie-sanders-in-california-poll-finds

[Gomez163]

1. BUT BUTT BERNIES CROWDS ARE SO YOOOOOUUUUGEEEE!!!!!!!

[tonyt53]

2. Only because their mothers know how to carpool.

[Stuckinthebush]

60. Duzy!

You win!

[riversedge]

3. umm. Interesting. Bernie did not get a bump from Oregon!! No MoJO!

[pnwmom]

8. Demographically, California is nothing like Oregon.

And so far demographics alone have predicted most of the races.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

14. Yup

[stopbush]

11. It's the famous Sanders "no-mentum!™

[RiverNoord]

46. I keep hearing from Hillary Clinton supporters about how negative

Sanders supporters are about her, 'haters,' and gleeful they supposedly are when discussing any setbacks she might be experiencing.

Well, I don't do anything like of that, and I'm a Sanders supporter.

However, in this thread I've seen:

1) Mockery of the value of Sanders's rally crowds.

2) An implication that Sanders supporters live with their mothers, who drive them to Sanders rallies. (I'm 45 and left that nest at 17. I do, however, ensure that, although I live 3 hours away, I'm available to assist my parents should any health issues require my prompt attention.)

3) An inference that Sanders supporters aren't like Clinton supporters in not having jobs or 'actual responsibilities in life.' (I'm an IT manager for an American manufacturing firm and non-practicing attorney. I typically work around 70 hours per week.)

4) Your plainly mocking glee with a pun of the word 'momentum' ('no-mentum') you apply as a description of Sanders's campaign, presumably based on the subject of the OP.

5) An argument made that Democrats should 'come together,' as it is time for 'Don Quixote Sanders' to stop 'tilting at Clinton Windmills.' (That person seems to have a gross conceptual disconnect between the act of people coming together and the various ways in which people can be motivated to do so.)

I've also read quite a lot of posts explicitly directed against Sanders supporters indicating that they exhibit negative behavior which reflects badly on the question of the merit of his candidacy.

So... Is Sanders unique in that respect?

[AntiBank]

48. + 100000, very well stated nt

[IthinkThereforeIAM]

59. Cool, calm and collected...

... great post! PS: It drives them nuts when you can pick apart their statements.

[RiverNoord]

66. It wasn't my intent to 'drive them nuts.'

I wrote it as an attempt to communicate on the subject of 'practice what you preach.'

I can't say that I see your response as anything better that the things I wrote about.

[FailureToCommunicate]

80. Says the person who has NINE posts hidden recently...

Did Bernie or some supporter cross you personally? Why the anger?

[Cryptoad]

45. a bump?

Bern fell behind 2 more delgates after OR and WV ....... and they called it a win? lmao

[LiberalFighter]

69. They make up their own narrative. They learned from the master.

[riversedge]

83. I really thought Sanders might have soem mojo to give him a bump in any CA polls. but

I was mistaken.

[Roy Rolling]

5. Good for you

Snark and smugness are such admirable qualities among a candidate's supporters. Especially should Sanders lose, taunting a defeated opponent is such a class act.

[Andy823]

30. Take a look at the threads on this board

90% are trash and bash on Clinton, and that's been going on since this board opened up to post in. Now tell me, do you think that all that trashing and bashing has helped in any way to unit people? The funny thing is a huge number of those claiming to be supporting Bernie have come out, some from day one, and said they would NOT vote for her is she wins the nomination. On the other side I have only seen one, maybe two Clinton supporters who have made such a statement. Now why is that? Seems to me that when it comes to alienating other voters, the Bernie bunch have done a far better job, and yet those they try an alienate still would vote for him if he were the nominee. Amazing isn't it

[cstanleytech]

38. To be fair I believe that the problem is coming from a small but vocal minority of Bernie

supporters causing problems just like there is a small minority of Clinton supporters doing the same assuming of course that none of them are Republican shills here just to try and stir the pot in which case they really arent supporters for either of the two.

[SCantiGOP]

55. We know there are Trump trolls here

We shouldn't be attacking other Democrats. We are going to have a race to win in November.

[billhicks76]

58. Barely Any Bernie Posts...Guess You Dont Read

And have your statements preprepared. Its all Hillary supporters and their constant insults just like they did to Obama. At least he got over it unlike venemous Clintonites. Keep digging.

[LanternWaste]

105. Not that you yourself have ever insulated a poster

"Its all Hillary supporters and their constant insults..."

Not that you yourself have ever insulted a poster.

That would be nothing more than holding others to a higher standard than you hold yourself to, sanctimonious piety, in fact. Keep digging, indeed...

[RiverNoord]

107. I'm a Sanders supporter

and I agree with you completely.

There are maybe 100 legitimate DUers, fairly evenly distributed among both Sanders and Clinton supporters, I believe, who seem to treat virtually all their activity on DU as a kind of sport. In their minds, the winners are the ones who perceive that they've successfully insulted the greatest numbers of supporters of the other candidate.

I think, among those people, substantive differences between the candidates are irrelevant and pointless to discuss. They simply use the perceived strengths of their chosen playing piece and the perceived weaknesses of the other players' piece to insult and annoy as many of the 'other side' as possible.

Not cool. I know I've insulted a number of Clinton and Sanders supporters, but the intent was never to insult, but rather make a substantive point about a person's (or candidate's or campaign's) behavior that I felt should be made under a given set of circumstances. If there was an insult, it was an undesirable side effect (well, around 90% of time, I suppose - I definitely won't claim to be perfect...), and if I had perceived a different route to take to make the point another way, I'd have taken it.

The trolls are another matter altogether, but it sure would be nice to have a 'civil discourse only forum' where all of us who wish to discuss issues pertaining to the election in a substantive manner, without being dragged down by pointless insults.

Hm... Thinking.....

[billhicks76]

108. I Believe She Should Drop Out

Because it's not her turn... It's the American People's turn.

[bluestateguy]

25. I, for one, don't have time to go to campaign rallies

Not for anyone.

I have a job, and actual responsibilities in life.

And I don't much care for noise either.

[wallyworld2]

81. Don't

Worry, this doesn't mean Senator Sanders won't be going to the convention and don't worry about this changing the fact hillary won't have the pledged delegates needed to secure the nomination without super delegates voting.

And don't go throwing chairs before the primary happens two weeks from now.

Watch your tone and consider party unity.

Just think how many voters would give up and not vote if you got your wish and Senator Sanders, the only candidate speaking for working people, were to drop out.

Besides it's only one poll and not the end of the world, there's gonna be a lot more in the upcoming days

Celebrate in July

[liberal N proud]

82. He just needs more time for people to get to know him

The more I know him, the less I like him.

[Plucketeer]

4. From the link....

"As with nationwide polls, there is a strong dislike in California for both parties presidential frontrunners. Among all state voters polled, 48 percent had an “extremely negative” view of presumed GOP nominee Trump and 30 percent had an “extremely negative” view of Clinton. Just 13 percent had that view of Sanders."

I've always favored common sense. Disheartening that it's in such short supply these days.

[ReRe]

16. Hang in there...

There's a stripe of silver lining for Bernie in this poll report. Need I say any more than "Orange County?" There's no way that things like this can have a baring on the Sanders campaign. They are going full-barrel and will keep doing so right up to the day. They will not be stopping to check any Orange Co, CA polls, I guarantee you.

As a matter of fact, I'm going to add these, in case anyone has the urge to keep the old gasoline in the tank for Bernie:

http://www.BernieSanders.com

https://secure.actblue.com/contribute/page/duforbernie

[MyNameGoesHere]

21. They really trust Sanders

just not enough to let him lead the country. I guess that's trust you can't believe in.

[Andy823]

31. You need to give Bernie some time

His popularity is really going to hell in a hand basket since he started taking advice from Weaver and Devine.

[OnDoutside]

51. It's less Devine and more Weaver & Jane Sanders, two embittered lefties from the hard road......nt

[spinbaby]

68. Wow

You broke some kind of a land speed record from signup to ignore.

[LanternWaste]

106. It's fun to pretend that those who disagree with our own established opinions do so only due to...

It's fun to pretend that those who disagree with our own established opinions do so only due to a lack of common sense. Allows us to feel much more clever than reality dictates.

[Vogon_Glory]

6. I Hope These Numbers Hold Up Thru CA's Election Day

I hope these polling numbers hold up through California's Election Day. It's time for Don Bernie Quixote to stop tilting at Clinton windmills and for Democrats to come together to fight a real ogre--Donald Trump and his Party.

[a kennedy]

18. Double yup.

CAN NOT EVER HAVE A tRump Presidency.

[Andy823]

34. I agree

We have come to far under a President Obama to allow someone like Trump to gain the office and destroy everything that was accomplished. George W. Bush was the worst president in history, but I think Trump could be even worse, and that should scare the crap out of anyone.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

15. Yup

[R B Garr]

7. Great news. Looks like California is going to go for the winner.

[riversedge]

84. I like your thinking.

[R B Garr]

86. I like yours, too. Your posts/threads have been very informative and helpful!

[retrowire]

10. thats a damn shame. nt

[dorkzilla]

12. Maybe, but remember...

PORTLAND — A new poll shows that with a week left before the Oregon Democratic primary, the state’s voters are favoring Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders by 48-33%.

DHM Research surveyed 901 likely Democratic Party voters between May 6-9 for Oregon Public Broadcasting and FOX12 Oregon (KPTV/Portland). Among those Democrats — Oregon’s Democratic primary is a closed election in which only registered Democrats can vote — Clinton led Sanders 48% to 33%.

http://q13fox.com/2016/05/10/new-polls-shows-likely-voters-favoring-clinton-over-sanders-in-oregon-week-before-democratic-primary/

[litlbilly]

41. tells us all we need to know. Gonna be a blowout by Bernie in CA. Im sure they dont poll

millennials or true indies. Mostly they poll a few people over 65 and in red areas just to get the numbers they want. The polls are run by the same people that own the media etc. When the numbers are finalized in OR, Bernie will be closer to 60% than the 56% at 95.5 of the voting done.

[rjsquirrel]

52. A perfect parody of what a Bernie dead ender would say!!!

Well played, sir! Unskew the polls!

[McKim]

87. Polls in Oregon Were Not Accurate--Sanders Won

In Portland we had a similar poll like in California. They must have polled all the retirement homes. This poll's effect is to discourage voter turn out among Sanders supporters. Don't pay attention to it and be sure to vote!

[litlbilly]

90. the polls said Hill by 15, Bernie is gonna win by close to that, that is a 30 point fuck up by those

so called expert polls. I'm in Beaverton Oregon and our county went huge for Bernie. Hillary one a single county, by 1 vote. They are all in it against Bernie and its not gonna work. When theres a blowout in CA, it is on...

[La Lioness Priyanka]

13. I can't wait for this primary to end, please California make this end

Vote for her. She's the better candidate

[pnwmom]

17. At this point it feels right to me that D.C. will be on June 14th

and they will get to put the exclamation point at the end of her win.

[Raster]

22. You think Clinton is the better candidate.

There are many that do not agree, myself included.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

33. And many more who do agree.

[Cryptoad]

42. Over 15 million on record say they do!

[jtuck004]

62. Eugene Debs got 3%. From prison. Her 4% ain't exactly groundbreaking. lol. n/t

[bravenak]

54. Me too. It's been over, imo.

[Herman4747]

63. The better candidate?

Which candidate voted with ALL the Republicans AND AGAINST OBAMA in support of cluster bombs?

Which candidate has HENRY KISSINGER as a mentor for foreign policy advice?

Which candidate, having Henry Kissinger as a mentor, took actions in favor of the overthrow of the democratically elected president of Honduras?

Which candidate sought to export FRACKING (GLOBAL WARMING INDUCING FRACKING) to Europe?

Which candidate voted to give George W. Bush the right to invade Iraq? REPEAT: GEORGE W. BUSH!!

Which candidate calls 78 million Iranians "enemies"?

Which candidate WILL REFUSE TO BREAK UP THE TOO BIG TO FAIL BANKS SINCE THEY ARE THE ONES PAYING HER OFF? Your beloved candidate is as corrupt as hell.

Which candidate was firmly against GAY MARRIAGE for years, and only changed her position when she thought it might cost her the presidency?

Which candidate LIES WITH A FREQUENCY THAT WOULD MAKE RICHARD NIXON PROUD?

Which candidate actually voted with the Republicans for the Patriot Act, and which candidate voted against the Patriot Act?

Which candidate sat on the WalMart Board of Directors and DID NOTHING TO PROMOTE UNIONIZATION WITHIN THAT COMPANY FOR SIX LONG YEARS? Indeed, actually praised the company & had stock in the company!!!

Which candidate declared that Republican John McCain had more relevant experience than did Democrat Barack Obama?

Which candidate was a "Goldwater Girl" as a teenager, THEN AS AN ADULT DECADES LATER DECLARES SHE WAS "PROUD TO HAVE BEEN A GOLDWATER GIRL"? (NOT ASHAMED, MIND YOU, BUT PROUD, GOLDWATER HAVING STRONGLY OPPOSED CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION). Do we need a reminder of Bernie's actions during the 1960s Civil Rights Era for comparison?

But do know that someone out there agrees with you that Hillary is the better candidate:

?quality=90&strip=all&w=664&h=441&crop=1

[Stardust]

67. 👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏

[SammyWinstonJack]

78. That messy stuff doesn't matter to Clinton's supporters. ALL they care about is "winning".

[McKim]

89. Beautiful!

Never forget about her evil foreign policy plans.

[King_Klonopin]

96. What is this? A cogent, factual argument regarding HRC vs BS posted on a DU thread ?!

This is only my opinion and my perception on the matter:

I have no personal animosity towards Hillary -- fairly neutral, in fact.

I see her as being as politically close to "center-right" as one can be without being a Republican.

I think Sanders would fare better against Trump in the GE.
Trump personifies every issue Sanders espouses, and there is a much clearer contrast between the two of them.

I think Hillary stands a good chance of losing to Trump. She is losing ground every day. (God help us!)

In the polling, Hillary's "negatives" are a huge disadvantage to overcome, and they are unlikely to change.
This is her Achilles Heel, and Trump is clever enough to exploit it.

The GE will be an ugly, negative-rhetoric, political brawl -- focused on personal attacks and character assassination.

Trump has no shame. He will resurrect every slimy story about the Clintons (both of them) in a constant stream of mud.

Trump has the debating skills of a 13 year old boy, but Hillary is no verbal ace. She does not do well when she goes
"off script"; and his message is purely ego-driven and unpredictable.

Hillary will be at a disadvantage to Trumps vulgar, sexist, misogynistic rhetoric because
1) he is salivating at any chance to unleash the "B" word when she is forced to get tough, and
2) being the stereotypical bully, Trump benefits from the double-standard that men have regarding "tough talk".


Here is the Low Down on the Primary thus far:

Pledged delegates: Clinton 1,768 Sanders 1,497
Superdelegates: Clinton 537 Sanders 42

Total: Clinton 2,305 Sanders 1,539

# of contests won: Clinton 27 Sanders 21

number of votes: Clinton 13,193,000 Sanders 10,159,000

percentage: Clinton 56% Sanders 43%


Take away the Superdelegates (the "thumb on the scale&quot and Hillary leads by 271
According to the HRC camp, she is trouncing BS and he should quit the race. Really?? In other words,
"Down by a touchdown with 1 minute remaining ?... just quit, already, so we can get our trophy !"

Sanders has to win California and run the table, BUT even when Sanders wins, he loses.

[Iggo]

19. I will always vote blue and never ever under any circumstances vote red.

I promise.

[Gene Debs]

23. What if you get a candidate that calls herself blue but pushes red policy?

[Iggo]

61. Like I said: Always blue, never red.

[Gene Debs]

93. So the only thing you take into consideration is labels. That's sad.

[Iggo]

100. Your assumption is incorrect.

And I'll leave it at that.

[NastyRiffraff]

20. Great news!

I know polls can change, but that lead looks good!

[LenaBaby61]

72. The polling looks very good for Hillary Clinton .....

Here in California.

Here is a link to the polling. Unlike the obvious outlier poll in Oregon which showed Hillary Clinton beating Sanders by whatever that large number was which I never believed, this particular poll is pretty solid, plus they've polled MANY times since early Spring and regularly lately:

http://abc7.com/politics/poll-clinton-poised-to-defeat-sanders-in-california-primary/1351808/

Not saying I see her beating Bernie by such a "big" number, but she is poised to win by a good number IMO.

[Gene Debs]

24. If Trump feels magnanimous, maybe he'll find a spot for Hillary in his administration.

[Robbins]

26. if true

why do they have to commit voter fraud for clinton to win.giving wrong information to poll workers and changing people's registation to keep bernie supporters from being able to vote.nice try though.

[Duval]

39. And that is the $64 million dollar question!

Go Bernie Go!!

[Cryptoad]

40. Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!

[ffr]

27. Loved and respected by all my relatives there.

HRC is a shoe-in.

I don't get the impression that anyone knows as much about Bernie Sanders and haven't heard what they have to say about him. I have a very favorable opinion about both he and Hillary, so they may be the same. Two newly registered white male voters in that block too. First time voters. Voting HRC, because they like her.

[Tiggeroshii]

28. Polls are always right.

That's why Hillary won Oregon by 15%, right?

[litlbilly]

35. my thoughts exactly:)

[litlbilly]

36. and it looks like Bernie may have actually won Oregon by closer to 60/40, since 23% Of multnoma co

were never fully counted.

[Equinox Moon]

29. Unfortunate

[olddad56]

32. California isn't winner take all.

[litlbilly]

37. I can find a poll that has cali_D leading in Ca if you want. thats about how much

this bogus poll means.

[Duval]

43. Heard on MSNBC that Hillary's unfavorable rating has increased.

Interesting.

[litlbilly]

44. they will never post those polls. interesting indeed.

[dorkzilla]

47. Yup...that's where I found the poll I linked in #12

[LibDemAlways]

56. Completely ridiculous. Interesting that this was released on

the last day voters can register in Calif. before the primary. Some corporate media meddling to quell enthusiasm for Bernie. It's bullshit.

[litlbilly]

75. another trick to try and keep people from voting. wont work. Just look at Oregon:)

[rury]

49. Hillary will win the nomination

and then I will write someone in because my conscience will not allow me to vote for a Clinton.

[StevieM]

65. Well then I guess that means that your conscience can allow you to let the Republicans take control

of the Supreme Court for the next 30 years.

It's a shame you feel that way because this is a chance we almost never get. It's a chance to reclaim the 5th seat on the court and make it a relatively liberal institution for at least the next 20 years.

[Feeling the Bern]

71. Americans love their super rich oligarchy masters. Evil vs. Lesser Evil

or as South Park called it "Giant Douche v. Turd Sandwich."

[olddad56]

73. at least you have a conscience which means that you won't be voting for Trump.

[alp227]

50. Still marking Sanders in MY ballot nt

[mcar]

53. K&R

[onehandle]

57. And they've been in early voting for two weeks.

Hillary will own California. She'll be up 4 million+ votes over Sanders after that.

[frylock]

64. What chance does Nate the Great give her? 91% of victory? 92%

18 point lead my ass. Bernie will sweep the west coast.

[RichVRichV]

70. I wouldn't put much faith in the polling. They obviously have bad sampling.

Sanders has a 5-percentage point lead among voters 18-34......

According to CNN exit polls, Bernie won 18-29 year olds in New York by 30 points, won the same in Texas by 19 points, won the same in North Carolina by 44 points, won the same in Pennsylvania by 71 points.


He's not winning the 18-34 demographic by only 5 points. That hasn't happened anywhere in this country. That alone vastly skews this poll's results. Not to mention the fact that the majority of new registrations are coming from the sub-35 crowd according to reports.



And I still want someone to point me to a link with the raw data for the poll (I've been looking). Without seeing demographic breakdowns the polling is meaningless to us. I have a feeling the sub-35 crowd was vastly under sampled, which is why the results for it are so far off every other state so far.

[tomm2thumbs]

74. GREAT NEWS!!! Oregon Had Clinton Up By 15 Points, and She Lost Every County (but one)

and THAT one county win was only by one single vote

________

ONE VOTE CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE!

From article:
So much for the only statewide poll, conducted by DHM Research for public broadcasting superstar OPB. It predicted Clinton would win by 15 percentage points. How wrong can a pollster be?



________






Link

[litlbilly]

77. Here's a nice poll for you cali_D while you're in the mood

http://www.alternet.org/election-2016/bernie-sanders-now-has-double-digit-lead-over-donald-trump-while-hillary-clintons-lead

[wisteria]

79. Go Hillary.

[Gene Debs]

94. Yeah. Away.

[Laser102]

85. According to 538 she has gone up from 93% to 98%. Nate Silver is usually on the money.🙂

[Gene Debs]

95. Are you kidding? One of the more surprise story lines from this whole primary season is

how spectacularly wrong Nate Silver has been in more than a few of these contests. You must have missed those.

[Laser102]

98. No. I didn't miss the couple he was off on. Nevertheless, he's 98% accurate. Geeks rule!

[Wibly]

88. Gimme a break

A poll of 800 people, with a 3.5 error margin.
Gimme a break!

[litlbilly]

91. I think they meant a 30.0 error margin:)

[wisteria]

92. I bet Bernie is saying it is rigged.

That is his excuse every time he isn't doing well.

[La Lioness Priyanka]

99. But things are always super fair when he does win

[L. Coyote]

109. Actually, the Trump trolls pretending to be Berners are the ones.

And, they are really working at inciting riotous sentiments in Dems. But hey, we are college educated and would never stoop to name calling or other ill will!

[Brother Joe Observes]

101. Nate the Great gives her a 98% chance of winning CA

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

[Brother Joe Observes]

102. Clinton Will Likely Clinch The Democratic Nomination In NJ

From fivethirtyeigh.com:

We’ve known for some time that Hillary Clinton will almost certainly be the Democratic nominee. But when will she clinch the nomination? If you look at the few remaining contests on the Democratic primary calendar, the major news outlets — barring something devastating happening to the Clinton campaign in the next few weeks — are likely to declare Clinton the nominee on June 7. More specifically, New Jersey will likely push Clinton across the finish line, and she may clinch the nomination even before the polls close in California.

If major news outlets declare Clinton the nominee on June 7, they will be counting superdelegates, as they did in 2008 when they declared Barack Obama the presumptive Democratic nominee on June 3. Now, you might ask “why include superdelegates?” It’s a fair question; superdelegates can change their minds, after all. For that reason, we haven’t included them in our delegate tracker — there was a chance that superdelegates backing Clinton might switch sides, particularly if Sanders was able to win a majority of elected delegates.

But that seems virtually impossible now. Sanders would need to win 68 percent of the remaining elected delegates to take a pledged delegate lead, and both the polls and demographics point to his defeat in the two largest delegate prizes remaining, California and New Jersey. Which is all to say there’s now a good argument for counting superdelegates.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-will-likely-clinch-the-democratic-nomination-in-new-jersey/

[apnu]

103. Probably, but she'll cinch the pledged delegate vote in Cali.

Which would put the kaboosh in Bernie Sanders supporters claims that Supers are deciding the nomination and not reflecting the will of the people.

At 1771 pledged delegates (as of now on Wikipedia) and 2026 needed to have over 50% of the 4051 available pledged delegates, Hillary needs 255 of them to meet that mark. New Jersey's 126 delegates isn't enough. But California's 475 is. Between the two, it should not be difficult for Hillary to get the 255 PDs she needs to silence critics.

Bernie's 1499 delegates means he needs 527 pledged delegates to reach 50% of 4051. That's a steep mountain to climb at this point. He needs blow out victories in all remaining states and territories to make up that deficit. 781 pledged delegates remain right now. (VI, PR, CA, MT, NJ, NM, ND, SD, and DC)

[basselope]

104. LOL