The GOP is in a very tough fight to keep the Senate. These ad reservations prove it.

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

Republicans face a very difficult Senate map this year, and when you combine that with the fact that Donald Trump is their presidential nominee, it's clear that a Senate majority is very attainable for Democrats.

If you needed confirmation of that, here it is.

A key super PAC tasked with defending Republicans' Senate majority has reserved nearly $40 million in ad time in the fall. The Senate Leadership Fund announced the following ad buys in a press release Tuesday afternoon:
> New Hampshire – $15.8 million (four weeks in September; two weeks in October) (this buy is in concert with a New Hampshire super PAC)
> Ohio – $8.1 million (two weeks in September; two weeks in October)
> Nevada – $6 million (three weeks in September; three weeks in October)
> Pennsylvania – $6.2 million (three weeks in October)
> Missouri – $2.5 million (three weeks in September)

The group also said in the release that it plans to reserve ad time in the coming weeks in a sixth state, Florida, where Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) just opted to seek reelection, and possibly other states.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/28/the-gop-is-in-a-very-tough-fight-to-keep-the-senate-these-ad-reservations-prove-it/?postshare=4191467142208127&tid=ss_tw

[MFM008]

1. With the dumpster fire

At the top
I believe the entire gop is in danger,
even the house.
If we can't get it with that toad as the ticket...we
Never will.

[Scruffy1]

3. Dumpster fire is the best description yet.n/t

[0rganism]

13. we have to win back some state legislatures

otherwise we can't undo the gerrymandering in 2020 and retake the house in 2024

so the real trick is going to be making the state-level republicans as unpopular as the mangled apricot hellbeast

[JPZenger]

2. After a while, it just makes the rubble bounce

An air force officer one time said that the constant bombing had already destroyed all of the targets and all we are doing now with additional bombing is to "make the rubble bounce."

It is like that with large ad buys in one market. A PAC keeps running the same ad over and over. Even if people watch the ad, it loses any effectiveness after a person has watched it a couple times. After that, it just becomes irritating, and causes more people to avoid any broadcast TV close to the election date. I'm sure Netflix will see an increase in views.

[IronLionZion]

4. This is our chance to take back the senate in a big way

and of course the white house. We need good Democratic appointees and legislation to be approved without BS obstruction.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. Misery? 2.5 Mill? Wow.

15.8 Mill in New Hampshah? Double wow.

I am surprised that Illinois did not make the list. Captain Kirk's six year voyage on the USS Senatorprize may be coming to an end. The way he has been distancing himself from Teh Donald has been great. But, it may be all for naught. The RNC and RSCC may think of him as a lost cause. Or it could be punishment from the few Trumpistas who do work there. All I know is that I've gotten some pleas for money from his campaign, and a couple of robo-calls a month or two ago.

I sense that there will be some major changes in the Senate this season.

[BumRushDaShow]

8. The seats they chose to focus on should tell you those odds

and seems to suggest that Tammy has a good shot.

Here in PA, Toomey is vulnerable but would require a big turnout here in Philly to remove him. I can see OH with Strickland on the ballot, but the Nevada and Missouri races are curious (haven't followed them but the ad buy seems to suggest vulnerability for Blount and for Harry Reid's soon-to-be-open seat)...

[kimbutgar]

15. MSNBC has been giving Kirk a free ad every night

At first I thought it was a campaign ad, then I realized it was a commercial about Kirk.

Makes me sick that they are not giving equal time to Tammy Duckworth.

[asiliveandbreathe]

6. I wonder if they are leaving Ron Johnson WI.fending for himself..oops..

I suppose considering Feingold is up 50-40 (RCP) thru 6/23.....

[asiliveandbreathe]

7. Might explain NH Ad buys.....

From Boston.com

A day after Donald Trump became the presumptive nominee for the Republican party, New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, reaffirmed her plan to support him in a general election.

We watch NESN (Red Sox Broadcasting) from AZ - (retired from Mass) and Ayotte Ads play a couple times throughout the game....now in June....no mention of trump in the AD -

Oh gee..wonder why - considering a recent poll demonstrates NH voters have a 75% disapproval of the dumpster...

https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2016/05/04/new-hampshire-kelly-ayotte-support-gop-nominee

[ffr]

9. Redistricting back to sanity begins with the 2016 election

I believe the next census is 2019.

PACK THE HOUSE & SENATE with as many democrats as possible. It is time.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

10. If Democrats don't Get Out The Vote .... . . . nt

[Bernardo de La Paz]

11. Money they spend on the Senate is money Trump is depending on. He's begging for money for his self

Trump is begging for money for his "self-funding" campaign that is "beholden to nobody" (so he says). Sucker FReaks and Ts will pony up.

[apnu]

12. So no funds for Kirk in IL. Good.

Let's go Tammy!

[Yupster]

14. My predictions

Kirk (IL) is a dead man walking. He has no chance at all.

Johnson (WIS) is almost at that point too. He probably has a 25 % chance at best of holding that seat.

That means just two more seats to take the Senate.

The possibilities? My made up percentages.

New Hampshire (Ayotte 45 % taking seat)

Pennsylvania (Toomey 35 %)

Ohio (Portman 40 %)

North Carolina (Burr 35 % chance)

Missouri (Blount 35 % chance)

Florida (Rubio 25 %)

Arizona (McCain 25 %)

Indiana (20 % chance but don't know who's running)

Not bad. Just need tow of those eight. If it's a wave election, may get 6 of them.

Only one Democratic seat really at risk (Nevada) and I'd say no more than 25 % chance of losing it.

Should be a good year. Maybe a great one.

[Feeling the Bern]

17. My predictions

TOSS UP SEATS (11)
Their vulnerable: (10)
Kirk (IL) - out
Johnson (WI) - out
Ayotte (NH) - out
Toomey (PA) - out
Portman (OH) - out
Burr (NC) - stays
Blount (MO) - stays
Rubio (FL) - out
McCain AZ - maybe
Open Seat (IN) Todd Hill (R) v. Barron Young (D) - leans Republican at this point

Our vulnerable (1):
Open Seat (CO) Catherine Masto (D) v. Joe Heck (R) - leans Republican at this point

Democrats have 47 seats (46 soons because Melendez of NJ might be wearing international orange soon). Based on this prediction, Democrats take the Senate 51-47 with two independents caucusing with them (Angus King of ME, Bernie Sanders of VT). That makes it 53-47.

Safe Democratic seats (8):
CA, OR, WA, HI, NY, VT, MD, CT

Safe Republican seats (14)
ID, UT, ND, SD, OK, KS, IA, AR, LA, KY, GA, AL, SC, AK

[Mc Mike]

16. The anti-McGinty chamber of commerce ads have been omnipresent in PA,

at least for me. I've seen them 50 times, no exaggeration.