Trump Hurt by Misconduct Claims as Clinton Lead Widens
Source: Monmouth University
West Long Branch, NJ - Hillary Clinton is currently ahead of Donald Trump by 12 points among voters likely to cast ballots in November. This is up from the 4 point lead she had last month and marks a return to the large advantage Clinton held shortly after the Democratic convention. The latest Monmouth University Poll finds more than 6-in-10 voters believe claims of unwanted sexual advances by Trump are likely to be true. Voters differ on whether language used by Trump in an Access Hollywood video is typical "guy talk" or not - mainly depending on which candidate they support. At the same time, recently leaked information about Clinton's speeches to Wall Street makes some voters less likely to support her, but has had a negligible impact on the race overall.
Currently, 50% of likely voters support Clinton and 38% back Trump, with 5% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Clinton held a much slimmer 46% to 42% lead just three weeks ago.
The vote choice among all registered voters is 47% Clinton and 38% Trump. Clinton has a larger likely voter lead because only 5% of her potential supporters are considered unlikely to vote while twice as many possible Trump voters (10%) are unlikely to cast a ballot next month. This marks a change from Monmouth's prior poll when 10% of registered voters supporting Clinton and 7% of registered voters supporting Trump were deemed unlikely to cast ballots.
"Clinton has increased her lead among all registered voters, but the main difference between this month and last month is that her supporters have become more enthusiastic, and thus more likely to turn out while Trump backers have become less likely to vote," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
Read more: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_101716/
Correct me if I'm wrong: Trump will ignore polls where he'd doing badly and spin crappy polls where he's ahead, but he's never claimed the polls were biased or "rigged", like Republicans did in 2012.
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This from a week ago: The House is so much more in play this week than last, it is really remarkable. This was the swiftest shift in political fortunes I've witnessed, a concession of the Presidency race for all practical purposes. But a Clinton victory was going to happen anyway. What has really shifted is the overall picture for the Republican party. Now every candidate has to declare their position on Trump. For Republicans, there is no winning that inevitablity.
Cook Report: Summary
Solid Seats: 202 Rep, 177 Dem
Likely/Lean Seats: 25 Rep, 7 Dem
Toss Up or Worse: 20 Rep, 4 Dem
2016 National House Race
Asked of 1778 Likely Voters
Democratic candidate 46%
Republican candidate 37%
Don't Know/No Opinion 17%
