Donald Trump's colossal error on jobs during his press conference
Source: CNBC
Trump said that there "are 96 million wanting a job and they can't get (one). You know that story. The real number. That's the real number."
It is unfortunately very far from the real number. There are in fact 96 million Americans age 16 and older who are not in the labor force. Of this, just 5.4 million, or 91 million fewer than the number cited by Trump, say they want a job. The rest are retired, sick, disabled, running their households or going to school. (This number is 256,000 fewer than last year and 1.7 million fewer than the all-time high for the series in 2013.)
Read more: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/11/donald-trumps-colossal-error-on-jobs-during-his-presser.html
This piss ant's lies are hard to keep up with. Come on God, do something about this. We're waiting.
HAB911
(8,911 posts)Generator
(7,770 posts)Trump is a sociopath.
Pacifist Patriot
(24,654 posts)machoneman
(4,007 posts)Think: stroke, stroke, stroke, stroke! And we ain't talking rowing machines here either pal!
Thor_MN
(11,843 posts)I fully expect unemployment to go up under Trumplethinskin, but we should make 96 million jobs the metric to judge his failure on.
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)His supporters don't want truth. They want lies for both reassurance and ammunition.
Jacob Boehme
(789 posts)They_Live
(3,239 posts)"It's just "fake news". Who knows where these numbers come from, the internet probably.."
Leghorn21
(13,526 posts)we should know that some kind of way - !!?
anarch
(6,535 posts)Hell, I have a job, but I wouldn't say I want that job, per se. I like to eat and have a roof over my head and stuff, but do I actually want to toil away most of my waking hours for someone else's profit? Nope, can't say as I do.
SunSeeker
(51,662 posts)wishstar
(5,271 posts)Tens of millions of brainwashed Americans believe unemployment has gotten worse under Obama and believe the birther lies about Obama. Trump knows his support depends on keeping these people misinformed and duped.
mobeau69
(11,156 posts)Dems better play this repeal/replace bullshit right.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,586 posts)He's referring to the "civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force." What he needs to consider is the number of "{persons not in the labor force} who currently want a job."
The huge commentary, copied from the DU thread for the September jobs report, posted October 7, 2016
1) A gain of 161,000 is more than Wednesday's estimate by ADP® of a gain of 147,000 jobs. It is below estimates I heard earlier this week of a gain of 170,000 - 175,000 and earlier this week.1 ;
2) "In October, both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.7 percent, changed little. These measures have shown little movement in recent months, although both are up over the year."2 ;
3) "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised up from +167,000 to +176,000, and the change for September was revised up from +156,000 to +191,000. With these revisions, employment gains in August and September combined were 44,000 more than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 176,000 per month." ;
4) "In October, average hourly earnings for all employees on private payrolls rose by 10 cents to $25.92, following an 8-cent increase in September. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.8 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $21.72 in October." ;
5) The civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force went from 94,184,000 in September to 94,609,000 in October, an increase of 425,000.3 ; and
6) The number of "{persons not in the labor force} who currently want a job" went from 6,088,000 in September to 5,912,000 in October, a decrease of 176,000. Therefore, the percentage of those not in the labor force who want a job now is (5,912,000/94,609,000) times 100%, or 6.2%, down from 6.5% in September.4[/font]
1ADP Private Payrolls Add 147,000 Workers in October
2 I've added mention of the employment-population ratio, aka the employment to population ratio, as progree argues that it is more worthy of attention than the labor force participation rate (LFPR). See: Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010
3 The datum "civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force" is in Table A-1. It's also at Not in Labor Force. (Hat tip, progree: Only 6.3% of those 94 million "unemployed" people want a job now.) Some people make a big deal out of this number, so to keep them happy, here it is.
4 The figure is also found in or derived from Table A-1. Once again, I'm indebted to progree for pointing out the significance of these data: Only 6.3% of those 94 million "unemployed" people want a job now).[/font]
Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in September; unemployment rate little changed...
The Large Print Giveth, and the Fine Print Taketh Away.[/center]
Long ago, a DUer pointed out that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here is that link:
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization
Also, hat tip, Recursion: How the Government Measures Unemployment
[font color="red"]New material, added August 8, 2016:[/font]
This appeared at the top of page A2 in the Wednesday, July 27, 2016, print edition of The Wall Street Journal. as "Jobless Picture is Open to Interpretation."
Gauges used to measure unemployment vary in how they define who is out of work {title online: "Political campaigns clash over different ways of measuring unemployment"}
By Josh Zumbrun
josh.zumbrun@wsj.com
http://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun
July 26, 2016 7:56 p.m. ET
Because political campaigns can rise and fall on the health of the economy, spats often flare over the gauges used to measure growth and unemployment.
The latest dust-up, raised by the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, focuses on the monthly employment numbers. A long streak of hiring has nudged the jobless rate down to 4.9%. ... Donald Trump Jr., the nominees son, recently criticized the official statistics as artificial numbers massaged to make the existing economy look good.
The nominee himself has said unemployment is far higher than the Labor Departments headline 4.9% rate would suggest, part of his message that the economy is in a dire state. After he won the New Hampshire primary in February, Mr. Trump called the official jobless figures phony and said the real number could be as high as 42%.
This isnt the first time people have cast aspersions on the jobs numbers in an election year, but the Trump claim is also part of a larger discussion over how best to assess the health of the labor market.
The following link to Barron's might not work for everyone. See progree's tips.[/font] From the July 20, 2015, issue of Barron's:
Refresher Course: Inside the Jobless Numbers
By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015
The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.
Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But thats just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.
To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of labor underutilization.
In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.
[font color="red"]New material:[/font] In August 2015, DUers whatthehey and progree got into a 1995 report from economists John E. Bregger and Steven E. Haugen. The .pdf is unfortunately an image and thus challenging as a source of quotes. Trying to find it in a format that does make for easy copying, I was led to this:
Alternative Unemployment Rates: Their Meaning and Their Measure March 12, 2014
Dark n Stormy Knight
(9,771 posts)do not care about factually representing anything.
BumRushDaShow
(129,376 posts)that will always be set to run at the bottom of the screen during any "comments" that he makes in whatever forum. They should also consider close-captioning that includes a correction with the facts for every lie he utters.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,586 posts)the existing grid can't produce the energy required.
BumRushDaShow
(129,376 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(57,586 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,376 posts)... even if it leads to "the end".
RussBLib
(9,032 posts)the lies spew forth as often as this chump breathes
I'm glad I'm not employed as a fact-checker!!
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,586 posts)job sector in the entire economy.
progree
(10,911 posts)the fact checkers pointing out that only 6% of those 94 million say they want a job. But it doesn't stop the pathological-liar-elect-in-chief.
onenote
(42,747 posts)Not surprised that he's too stupid to see the hole he's digging for himself.
TexasBushwhacker
(20,210 posts)1. I would hope most 16 to 19 year olds still enrolled in high school would NOT be part of the labor force. The same could be said for 19+ young people enrolled full time in college or trade school. School is their full time job. Having more young people in school full time instead of the workforce is a good thing.
2. Baby Boomers started turning 65 five years ago at a rate of 10K A DAY and will continue to for another 13 years. If seniors can enjoy their retirement without working, that's supposed to be a good thing.
3. The labor participation rate hit a low of 58.1% in 1954. Most consider the 50s as a strong economic period. If families were able to survive on a single income, it was considered a good thing. Has that standard changed?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/labor-force-participation-rate