Former NATO military chief: there's a 10% chance of nuclear war with North Korea
Source: Vox
And a 20-30% chance of a conventional one.
Updated by Yochi Dreazen Sep 28, 2017, 9:00am EDT
Retired Navy Adm. James Stavridis spent 37 years in the military, including four years as the supreme allied commander of NATO. Hillary Clinton vetted him as a possible running mate. President-elect Donald Trump considered naming him secretary of state. He is a serious man, and about as far from an armchair pundit as its possible to be.
And thats precisely what makes his assessment of the escalating standoff with North Korea so jarring. Stavridis believes theres at least a 10 percent chance of a nuclear war between the US and North Korea, and a 20 to 30 percent chance of a conventional, but still bloody, conflict.
I think we are closer to a significant exchange of ordnance than we have been since the end of the Cold War on the Korean peninsula, he said during a panel I moderated Tuesday at the University of Pennsylvanias Perry World House. His estimate of the potential death toll from even a nonnuclear war with North Korea is just as striking. North Korea has at least 11,000 artillery pieces trained on Seoul, South Koreas capital of 25 million people, and would be certain to use them during any conflict. The US would be just as certain to mount a sustained bombing campaign to destroy those artillery pieces as quickly as possible.
The result? Its hard for me to see less than 500,000 to 1 million people, and I think thats a conservative estimate, he said.
Read more: https://www.vox.com/2017/9/28/16375158/north-korea-nuclear-war-trump-kim-jong-un
Girard442
(6,084 posts)Response to DonViejo (Original post)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Tobin S.
(10,418 posts)We have two real life cartoon characters with the fate of the world in their pudgy hands. At least in the U.S., there is a chance that some sane voices could intervene, but that is unlikely in North Korea.
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,364 posts)Even that would be tough on Seoul, and might require many more soldiers than we have available.