U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Reuters

JANUARY 4, 2018 / 8:26 AM / UPDATED 3 HOURS AGO

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Reuters Staff 1 MIN READ

(Reuters) - U.S. private employers added 250,000 jobs in December, marking the biggest monthly increase since March, a report by ADP Research Institute showed on Thursday.

Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast the ADP National Employment Report would show a gain of 190,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 165,000 to 225,000.

Private payroll gains in the month earlier were revised down to 185,000 from an originally reported 190,000 increase. ... The report is jointly developed with Moody’s Analytics.

The ADP figures come ahead of the U.S. Labor Department’s more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which includes both public and private-sector employment.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-adp/u-s-private-sector-adds-250000-jobs-in-december-biggest-rise-since-march-idUSKBN1ET1H6

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I had that a gain of 189,000 was expected.

ADP National Employment Report

December 2017

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 250,000 Jobs in December

Private-sector employment increased by 250,000 from November to December, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

https://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2017/December/NER/NER-December-2017.aspx

[George II]

1. I wonder how many of those are seasonal, holiday jobs.

[FBaggins]

2. The numbers are already seasonally adjusted

However - this is the ADP jobs report, not the one from the government. It has a long track record of variability compared to the official numbers. The graphical shape of their data over long periods is consistent with the official figure... but month-to-month can be way off.

I think the "real" number comes out tomorrow.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. Well, the numbers from the BLS come out tomorrow. From last month:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

Links to earlier reports

[George II]

9. Counting this 250K, which is likely going to be lower, trump's average is 177K per month...

...From January 2010 (including the end of the recession he inherited) through the end of his Presidency, Obama's average was 185K.

Thanks Obama!

[heaven05]

3. yeah, sure

5$ an hour, no healthcare or benefits. What fucking misleading BS. Yet no surprise this is typical of ameriKKKa to tout some kind of plus....while in reality it has ALWAYS been super negative in it's reality of genocide, racism and lies about it's greatness, ESPECIALLY, lately.

[George II]

4. That's reminiscent of Reagan's "jobs reports" - 100,000* skilled $20 an hour lost overseas, but....

....200,000* $8 an hour jobs "created". Net was a loss of income overall.

*rough numbers for illustrative purposes.

[Igel]

5. 10% or so in "goods production."

Mostly services, but not all services pay below minimum wage. I'm holding out for the BLS' report. There's often a discrepancy between them, and the BLS, IIRC, has two different metrics that they use.

It's a bit early in the month, esp. given the holidays, but one other report to look for is the BLS' 'real earnings' notice. Take, for example, October to November '17. Wages were up 0.2%, but given the CPI was up 0.4% the 'real earnings' amount was -0.2%. You need all three numbers, by the way, because of the way the CPI can change from month to month. One sector has plunging prices, real wages can incease even if there's no change in the average paycheck. Just citing the "real wages" can be misleading.


As for the claimed 250k increase in jobs being a plus, let's say it's not. In that case, employment going down by 250k isn't a negative.

Personally, I find this kind of data the most telling. https://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm (yeah, it's for 2016, but the pattern's pretty much unchanged since I was a kid). There are patterns that link in with this one, there are patterns that overlay it, but pretty much education is the link between them all, whether it's the degree, the institution, or the discipline chosen.

[heaven05]

6. hmmmmm, thank you

clarifying as to 'real' numbers

[StevieM]

7. The Obama economy is still doing well.

Trump's policies are just now going into effect. We'll see if he can do as well.

[George II]

10. Lousy format, but here are bush's last two years, Obama's eight years, and 2017.

2007 240 89 190 80 143 75 -34 -20 88 84 114 98
2008 17 -84 -78 -210 -186 -162 -213 -267 -450 -474 -766 -694
2009 -793 -702 -823 -687 -349 -471 -329 -213 -220 -204 -2 -275
2010 23 -68 164 243 524 -137 -68 -36 -52 262 119 87
2011 43 189 225 346 77 225 69 110 248 209 141 209
2012 358 237 233 78 115 76 143 177 203 146 132 244
2013 211 286 130 197 226 162 122 261 190 212 258 47
2014 190 151 272 329 246 304 202 230 280 227 312 255
2015 234 238 86 262 344 206 254 157 100 321 272 239
2016 126 237 225 153 43 297 291 176 249 124 164 155
2017 216 232 50 207 145 210 138 208 38 244 228 250

Including the 4.2 million LOST in his first year (thanks to bush), more than 13 million were created during Obama's 8 years (17 million if you take that 4.2 million out)

You won't hear any kudos from republicans for that.

[George II]

11. The official number just came out, it's only 148,000, way below the 2017 average of 170,000.

[D_Master81]

12. I'm confused

how did it go from 250,000 to 148k?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. You're looking at two different reports.

The report in this thread is the ADP Employment report. It usually comes out on the Wednesday two days ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics payroll employment report.

The BLS payroll employment report is another report.

They measure things that are similar but are not the same. They usually track each other, but the numbers need not be the same.

This month, there's a thread in LBN and another in Economy for the BLS report:

U.S. added 148,000 jobs in December, in lagging finish to year of strong growth

Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP Employment Report

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