A Democrat getting outspent 17-1 is now neck and neck in deep-red Pennsylvania

[UpInArms]

Source: Vox

For the first time in nearly 15 years, Republicans in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District are starting to get nervous.

On its face, the March 13 special congressional election in the southwest corner of Pennsylvania should be a breeze for the GOP. The Cook Political Report rates the district R+11 (due in part to partisan gerrymandering that the state Supreme Court recently ruled unconstitutional).

The newly open seat was held by former Rep. Tim Murphy (R-PA) since 2003, who was so secure in his seat that he often failed to attract a Democratic challenger. Murphy suddenly resigned in October amid revelations that he had pressured a woman with whom he was having an extramarital affair to have an abortion. But even after he stepped down, national Democrats didn’t think they could compete in the special election, a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee operative told Vox.

...snip...

Saccone is also benefiting from a deluge of outside spending. The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel and Michael Scherer estimated Republican-allied groups have so far spent about $4.7 million in television and radio ads compared to the approximately $300,000 Democratic groups have raised for Lamb.

Read more: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/2/23/17013730/conor-lamb-rick-saccone-pennsylvania-special-election

[Pachamama]

1. Congressman Conor Lamb (D) sounds great....

A Marine and local boy.....

[Freedomofspeech]

6. We got to meet him at a fundraiser... Great guy!

[Eyeball_Kid]

2. Trumpy is the Dems' best friend.

More than money and campaign contributions, it's Trumpy's brand that's poisoned the entire GOP. When it's a 17-1 ratio of GOP to Dems on dollars donated to a political race, and the Dem is neck-and-neck, it's obvious that a nonmaterial factor is at play. And that factor is Trumpy himself. His own disgraced brand has now infected the entire GOP. And Trumpy can't stop being a negative factor because he demands that he's front and center on every news cycle with his caustic, insulting, miserable displays of narcissism.

Let him and all of the GOP rot. They all bought into Trumpy and Putin (which now appears to be one and the same). Now their brand has turned to shit. More shit, every day.

[red dog 1]

19. + 1

[Pacifist Patriot]

3. Brilliant!

[PunksMom]

4. Hes more of a

conservative liberal. That’s why he is doing better than expected in that area.

[lagomorph777]

7. I'll take a conserva-liberal any day,

over bat-shit crazy.

[PunksMom]

11. Im totally with you on that!

[LBM20]

22. GOOD! That is just the kind of Democrat we need in those areas. I JUST SENT HIM A DONATION!

Ideological purity is DEATH to the Dem Party. You run the kind of candidates who can WIN. And a moderate Dem sure as hell is better than a right wing RePUKElican.

[PunksMom]

26. Couldnt agree more!

[BumRushDaShow]

5. I think the problem with the media analysis is

that they keep basing this all on districts that voted for Drumpf vs which ones actually HAVE County/local elected officials who are Democrats. I.e., several of the Counties in that currently (convoluted) district have a majority Democratic Party advantage in terms of registration. But in their case, they vote (R) for national (at least the last couple Presidential elections) but (D) locally. In fact, if I'm not mistaken, they voted for Clinton vs Obama during the 2008 primary and thus she won the PA primary, able to overcome the Philly effect.

[Fred Sanders]

9. Since much of the millions in ads were bought by the NRA, or they did a direct contribution, maybe

those conservative Democrats will see the light.

[Doitnow]

28. Let's make their money worthless.

(Love the grumpy kitty. Have to smile every time I see it.)

[FakeNoose]

15. Yes it's not "deep red" like they're saying on the Vox blog

My sister lives in the 18th district (Irwin/Norwin Hills/Manor area) plus I have many other friends who live in the far suburbs that became the 18th. This district is one of the worst gerrymanders by the way, and it was done to help Tim Murphy get re-elected in a skate.

So the 18th is not deep red, it's more like 45/55 but it could easily go to 55/45 in this March election. I've seen many yard signs for Lamb but nothing for Saccone while driving around my sister's area. On TV (Pittsburgh market) there have been tons of Saccone TV ads, and only occasional ones for Lamb. My guess is that Conor Lamb has a limited advertising budget and he's trying to save it for the last week before the election.

I sure hope Conor Lamb wins this, and it doesn't need to be a landslide either. Just squeaking by is all it takes.

[BumRushDaShow]

16. Hoping for the best

and if the new map holds through court challenges, it seems they will need to go through this again in the reconfigured districts there.

[awesomerwb1]

8. Great news.

This would be a nice pick up.

[winstars]

10. Send him $$$

https://conorlamb.com

[Honeycombe8]

12. Woo-hoo! Even if he doesn't win, he gets another chance in the mid-terms!

[NBachers]

13. Just donated again via ActBlue

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lamb-for-congress-1

[DeminPennswoods]

14. The ads Saccone is buying on MSNBC probably aren't

persuading anyone to vote for him. LOL!

[oberliner]

17. It's not "deep-red Pennsylvania"

There are thousands more Democrats in the district than Republicans.

[onetexan]

18. GOOD!! GET THEM OUT TO VOTE!!

[LBM20]

24. But MANY of those registered Dems have been voting for R's because of the cultural issues. We need

Dems who are social conservatives but economic populists who can win again in these areas.

It is like John Bell Edwards, Democratic Governor in Louisiana. He is a social conservative but progressive on healthcare, education, unions, and job creation. And GOOD! We need to be a big tent party that can win EVERYWHERE.

[Cha]

32. Right.. but it said.. Some Dems in that

District have been voting repub. I don't know how many but it's been Red for a long time

[DeminPennswoods]

33. Those Dems just haven't bothered to change

their registration to R.

[PA Democrat]

34. This district is crazy though.

Despite holding I believe a 6 point advantage over Republicans, voters here voted for Trump by almost 20 points. Tim Murphy ran unopposed in the last two election cycles.

The major local newspaper in Westmoreland County is the Tribune Review which was owned by Richard Mellon Scaife and is like a print version of FOX News. The Trib has bought up every other small local paper in the county and now is in direct competition in Allegheny County with the only other major paper, the unbiased Pittsburgh Post Gazette. Before he died, Scaife was subsidizing the Trib to the tune of MILLIONS a year to keep it afloat so that he could heavily skew the contents of the paper for the Republican party. Since Scaife died, the paper has laid off workers but continues to put out a right wing rag disguised as "news".

Additionally, the district has a lot of older Catholic voters and the church puts out voters' "guides" which urge people to vote based upon three issues: abortion, school prayer and school "choice".

[red dog 1]

21. "Focused on recapturing blue-collar workers, Lamb's campaign represents one school of thought -

-- going back to labor-liberal economic values and working with unions to retake territory in Midwest and Rust Belt states that voted for Donald Trump in 2016."

Sounds good to me!


Kick & Recommend!

[LBM20]

23. Just donated to him. This would be a great pickup.

[laserhaas]

25. Woo Hoo

[DinahMoeHum]

27. GROUND GAME, people. It's gonna boil down to the ground game.

The other side may outspend you, but never let them out-work you.

We must bust ours. . .to kick theirs.

[Archae]

29. Isn't Saccone one of those Jesus Freaks?

I think I read that somewhere.

[John1956PA]

30. Saccone sponsored the "Year of the Bible" Pennsylvania State House resolution in 2012.

The resolution was passed unanimously by the Pennsylvania House of Legislators.

[Cha]

31. He says if he wins he won't support Nancy

Pelosi for Speaker.. I don't think Nancy is worried.

And, this from Biden.. he forgets who the Democratic Base is.. It's African American Women and Men.. in that order.

Still others, including former Vice President Joe Biden, say Democrats can do both. At a recent speech in front of House Democrats, Biden said the notion that Democrats have to choose between blue-collar workers and their progressive base was a “false debate.”

“It’s a false debate we’re having among ourselves, in my opinion,” he said. “Let’s not rip ourselves apart in a debate that is irrelevant.”

[bucolic_frolic]

35. MAKE THEM PAY!!

[IronLionZion]

36. Sounds like his plan is to win back blue collar workers who fell for Trump's lies

and are wondering why it hasn't helped yet. All politics is local. This sounds doable. Lamb can win.

“He’s got local ties; he’s a local guy,” said Tim Waters, political director for the United Steelworkers Political Action Committee. “He’s a young guy with a lot of energy ... right down the line on issues that affect workers in this district.”

Focused almost exclusively on local issues, Lamb has nevertheless stumbled into a long-running debate about how the Democratic Party can claw its way back to the majority after 2016.

[markpkessinger]

37. Good to hear, but Pennsylvania has never been "deep red"

I was born and raised in a pretty conservative part of the state (Clinton County). And even there, it was decidedly purple.