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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 08:57 AM Jun 2018

Flooding from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes - study

Source: The Guardian



Climate change study predicts ‘staggering impact’ of swelling oceans on coastal communities within next 30 years

Oliver Milman in New York
@olliemilman

Mon 18 Jun 2018 01.00 EDT

Sea level rise driven by climate change is set to pose an existential crisis to many US coastal communities, with new research finding that as many as 311,000 homes face being flooded every two weeks within the next 30 years.

The swelling oceans are forecast repeatedly to soak coastal residences collectively worth $120bn by 2045 if greenhouse gas emissions are not severely curtailed, experts warn. This will potentially inflict a huge financial and emotional toll on the half a million Americans who live in the properties at risk of having their basements, backyards, garages or living rooms inundated every other week.

“The impact could well be staggering,” said Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). “This level of flooding would be a tipping point where people in these communities would think it’s unsustainable.

“Even homes along the Gulf coast that are elevated would be affected, as they’d have to drive through salt water to get to work or face their kids’ school being cut off. You can imagine people walking away from mortgages, away from their homes.”

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change

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Flooding from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes - study (Original Post) DonViejo Jun 2018 OP
Wonder how much this will cost American taxpayers. We supplement flood insurance sinkingfeeling Jun 2018 #1
Good thing global warming doesn't exist angrychair Jun 2018 #2
Personally bucolic_frolic Jun 2018 #3
When idiots are in charge and have a short life expectancy: yallerdawg Jun 2018 #4
My nasty side wishes this would happen TODAY! riversedge Jun 2018 #6
Unfortunately, we all know.... Wuddles440 Jun 2018 #7
uga. probably so!! riversedge Jun 2018 #13
My concerned side wishes this would happen today! Mountain Mule Jun 2018 #9
Ditto! BigmanPigman Jun 2018 #14
Something tells e they all know this and the money grab is to wall themselves off....INLAND. Crutchez_CuiBono Jun 2018 #26
It is happening, yet so many are sleeping. so many. No leadership around in the US. riversedge Jun 2018 #5
Wow! Jedi Guy Jun 2018 #8
So many rocks falling into the water . . . tclambert Jun 2018 #10
Those dastardly Chinese! Jedi Guy Jun 2018 #15
Oh well. maxsolomon Jun 2018 #11
I've read relatively little land is expected to be lost because Hortensis Jun 2018 #12
The rich will have to hire water taxis to get back and forth csziggy Jun 2018 #17
You're missing it completely. A sea level rise of 4', 9' Hortensis Jun 2018 #18
None of the estimates are for four to nine feet in the next hundred years csziggy Jun 2018 #20
it's the next 10, 20, 30 years that investors will look at Hortensis Jun 2018 #21
I doubt 2 inches sea level rise in the next hundred years will worry investors csziggy Jun 2018 #22
Well, in the past 5 years on the gulf coast of Florida Hortensis Jun 2018 #23
As a native Floridian I will never understand the desire to live on the coast csziggy Jun 2018 #24
:) That is exactly why we purchased a mobile home Hortensis Jun 2018 #27
2 inches is an average VMA131Marine Jun 2018 #28
Two inches of vertical sea level rise can mean miles of horizontal land lost. yardwork Jun 2018 #25
If only the Republikkkans homes were destroyed??? NOMOGOP Jun 2018 #16
Missing point in this: Seal level rise is NOT going to stop at 4-9 feet.. mackdaddy Jun 2018 #19
Should I be looking at buying ocean waterfront property in Nevada? dhol82 Jun 2018 #29

sinkingfeeling

(51,474 posts)
1. Wonder how much this will cost American taxpayers. We supplement flood insurance
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 09:13 AM
Jun 2018

and pay for FEMA. Everyone's home owners' insurance will rise. Just the beginning of the results of climate change....what a hoax.

Wuddles440

(1,127 posts)
7. Unfortunately, we all know....
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 10:16 AM
Jun 2018

that "Donnie Two Scoops" would find a way to have the taxpayers and other insureds pay for any losses that he incurred. In fact, he'd probably find a way to profit from such an event.

Mountain Mule

(1,002 posts)
9. My concerned side wishes this would happen today!
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 10:52 AM
Jun 2018

I hate the idea of people losing their homes, but this nation needs a wake-up call to get us all off the path of business as usual. The longer we wait, the more people will be adversely impacted - not just in the US either - think Bangladesh and the small island nations in the south Pacific. We are charging full speed ahead into a global catastrophe that we are ill prepared to deal with. If it takes thousands of Americans having to abandon their homes then so be it (and I'm the kindest person around - but the sorrow I feel over what's happening to our planet can overwhelm me).

Jedi Guy

(3,259 posts)
8. Wow!
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 10:20 AM
Jun 2018

That's a whole lot of land eroding into the ocean and raising sea levels! That is what's causing this, according to some GOP Congress-critter. And he'd certainly know better than actual climate scientists, right?

tclambert

(11,087 posts)
10. So many rocks falling into the water . . .
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 12:41 PM
Jun 2018

The Chinese must be pushing them in to keep their hoax going.

Jedi Guy

(3,259 posts)
15. Those dastardly Chinese!
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 02:57 PM
Jun 2018

First they steal our intellectual property, and now they're perpetuating their climate change hoax. You know what'd fix their little red (Communist) wagon? That's right, tariffs! I'm so glad we've got a President who knows the score. He'll show 'em! Now if you'll excuse me, I just lost my healthcare and I need to figure out if my tax cut will pay for it.

(for the sarcasm impaired)

maxsolomon

(33,400 posts)
11. Oh well.
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 01:21 PM
Jun 2018

to paraphrase George Harrison: All things must pass. All beachfront second homes of the 1% must pass away.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
12. I've read relatively little land is expected to be lost because
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 02:02 PM
Jun 2018

so much of it is very desirable and has been expensively developed. Most is amenable to protection by sea walls, which will be built. Much of the development along our coasts is at or near the end of its economic life and thus also amendable to redevelopment. Middle-class people are already being pushed inland, coastal properties increasingly for the well to do only, and sea level rise will pretty much finish off the remnants of the old life.

Those imagining their tax dollars will somehow pay for what's happening on the coasts are undoubtedly correct. But much of it'll be spent protecting private investments. Probably some state and local governments will use sea rise to "remove" lower-tax neighborhoods from desirable stretches, which will then be redeveloped. That's pretty negative, of course. It can be different in a lot of ways if enough of us insist. Most people building on the coast these days can afford to rebuild out of their own pockets and should.

We own a share in an old, little mobile home coop on an estuary right off Tampa Bay, an increasing anomaly where people of comparatively modest means can still live on the water (they've always been vacation homes for most of us, but the number of owners who choose to live there year-round is increasing.). Every storm swamps our dock now, and it's unlikely large-scale government assistance to our stretch of coast, including tax breaks and laws, will happen in time to help us save our park. The newer high-rise condos on the water across a nearby highway were built elevated. They'll be fine. Eventually one of those will be built where we are, even if the land is technically under water at that point.

csziggy

(34,138 posts)
17. The rich will have to hire water taxis to get back and forth
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 05:16 PM
Jun 2018

And to bring their staff back and forth from the new mainland!

They will probably claim those are new jobs...

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
18. You're missing it completely. A sea level rise of 4', 9'
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 05:23 PM
Jun 2018

mean increased construction costs. But many can afford that and will. Oceanfront property will remain desirable. Even in worst case, those who can afford it will retrench to new coastline that existing residents cann't afford to redevelop to sustainability and build there.

And, of course, the exclusivity of islands can boost real estate prices very nicely.

csziggy

(34,138 posts)
20. None of the estimates are for four to nine feet in the next hundred years
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 05:45 PM
Jun 2018

Most are for millimeters a year:


Sea Level News | June 13, 2018
Ramp-up in Antarctic ice loss speeds sea level rise


Changes in the Antarctic ice sheet’s contribution to global sea level, 1992 to 2017. Credit: IMBIE/Planetary Visions


Ice losses from Antarctica have tripled since 2012, increasing global sea levels by 0.12 inch (3 millimeters) in that timeframe alone, according to a major new international climate assessment funded by NASA and ESA (European Space Agency).

<SNIP>

The team looked at the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from 1992 to 2017 and found ice losses from Antarctica raised global sea levels by 0.3 inches (7.6 millimeters), with a sharp uptick in ice loss in recent years. They attribute the threefold increase in ice loss from the continent since 2012 to a combination of increased rates of ice melt in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula, and reduced growth of the East Antarctic ice sheet.

Prior to 2012, ice was lost at a steady rate of about 83.8 billion tons (76 billion metric tons) per year, contributing about 0.008 inches (0.2 millimeters) a year to sea level rise. Since 2012, the amount of ice loss per year has tripled to 241.4 billion tons (219 billion metric tonnes) – equivalent to about 0.02 inches per year (0.6 millimeters) of sea level rise.

West Antarctica experienced the greatest recent change, with ice loss rising from 58.4 billion tons (53 billion metric tons) per year in the 1990s, to 175.3 billion tons (159 billion metric tons) a year since 2012. Most of this loss came from the huge Pine Island and Thwaites Glaciers, which are retreating rapidly due to ocean-induced melting.

<SNIP>

At the northern tip of the continent, ice-shelf collapse at the Antarctic Peninsula has driven an increase of 27.6 billion tons (25 billion metric tons) in ice loss per year since the early 2000s. Meanwhile, the team found the East Antarctic ice sheet has remained relatively balanced during the past 25 years, gaining an average of 5.5 billion tons (5 billion metric tons) of ice per year.
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/129/ramp-up-in-antarctic-ice-loss-speeds-sea-level-rise


Worst case scenario is that the Antarctic ice loss is complete but as stated in the last paragraph I quotedabove right now it is holding steady. If all the ice on the continent of Antarctica melted that would give a sea level rise of 190 feet but no one is currently predicting that in the next hundred years.

The figure they gave for the increased rate of sea level rise is about 0.02 inches a year. 0.02 inches x 100 years = 2 inches.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
21. it's the next 10, 20, 30 years that investors will look at
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 05:52 PM
Jun 2018

and a large number of government decisions will focus on., though. The average profitable economic life of a hotel is something like 25 years. After that, it's time for redevelopment. The average life for anchor stores in strip malls is about a decade. Then the supermarket moves out and Goodwill moves in.

Take a look at that nice building Kuschner made the horrible mistake of purchasing. It has many, many more years in it if enough people cared to rent, but as it is it's a tear-down. Business does change too easily in some respects. All they need is enough prospective profit and legal means and the wrecking balls are swinging.

But even homeowners who need to worry about retiring on the equity in their homes aren't concerned with 100 years from now.

csziggy

(34,138 posts)
22. I doubt 2 inches sea level rise in the next hundred years will worry investors
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 06:00 PM
Jun 2018

Or pretty much anyone else, even though that rise will affect the damage from storm surges especially as storms continue to be more intense than in the past.

Yes, the sea will rise, but it will not be severe in our lifetime or the lifetime of anyone alive at this time. The problem is that the only chance to stop the coming changes are needed NOW, not one hundred years from now.

The naysayers have enough difficulty accepting the science without our side exaggerating the sea level rise in the near future. We need to stick to facts such as are detailed in the NASA article I posted the link to.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
23. Well, in the past 5 years on the gulf coast of Florida
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 06:13 PM
Jun 2018

we have gone from the sea only topping our sea wall in bad storms to it routinely topping the sea wall and covering the floor of our dock in especially high tides. Big storms combined with high tide (not a rare combination) can bring it an additional 3+ feet up our lawn bank and over our lower patio slab.

Two inches without all the rest would have been nice.

csziggy

(34,138 posts)
24. As a native Floridian I will never understand the desire to live on the coast
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 07:54 PM
Jun 2018

Ever since 1960 when Hurricane Donna devastated the state, even in the interior, the allure of coastal property has evaded me.

Storm surges of ten to twenty feet have been known for over a hundred years - the 1900 Galveston hurricane, 1926 Miami hurricane, 1928 Okeechobee hurricane, 1935 Labor Day hurricane, and 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane all had storm surges over ten feet but people still live there and then complain about flooding.

As for your flooding - the streets of Miami Beach flood regularly and have for many years: https://www.quora.com/How-often-does-Miami-Beach-flood Most of the coast floods in high tides and with storm surges.

Hortensis

(58,785 posts)
27. :) That is exactly why we purchased a mobile home
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 08:26 PM
Jun 2018

in a coop as a second, snowbird residence. (Aha! ) We didn't even consider a stick-built home, much better investment or not, because we couldn't afford good insurance and didn't want to worry every year about water and other hurricane damage. Our MH is rather wonderful in its layout and comfort. It was good quality when built 60 years ago and is still nice. It's market value, though, is almost nothing; the value's in the land. IF the land remained (a big if when discussing this topic), we could replace it with another old MH for very little.

And we do notice that, of course, most Floridians are like you and choose to live and raise their families inland. Our park is full of winter transients from northern states and Canada.

Btw, we're very close to the mouth of Tampa Bay where it empties into the gulf. When Irma came up our coast, we assumed our MH would be totally lost. When Irma emptied the bay of billions of tons of water, with expectation of an 8-9 foot tsunami as the water returned, we said goodbye to the entire park, land and all. Then Irma took a small right turn inland directly south of us and the tsunami also failed to happen. Our old, very troublesome park sewers were fine, a handful of carports and palm trees damaged but no homes, our property totally unharmed, electricity back on in within 3 days. (It was out for over a week at our home in north Georgia, and we had 5 trees down.)

Go figure. Didn't expect that bizarre miracle and don't expect another.

Selfies of strolling in the bay.



yardwork

(61,712 posts)
25. Two inches of vertical sea level rise can mean miles of horizontal land lost.
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 08:24 PM
Jun 2018

It's a common misunderstanding. If the sea level rises even a millimeter, in flat coastal areas that can mean many feet of flooded land.

Think about it.

mackdaddy

(1,528 posts)
19. Missing point in this: Seal level rise is NOT going to stop at 4-9 feet..
Mon Jun 18, 2018, 05:42 PM
Jun 2018

Greenland and other Arctic Ice sheets have nearly 40 feet of sea level rise. Antarctic Ice sheets have over another 200 feet of sea level rise of water locked up but melting.

Every measurement shows the rate of melt of both north and south ice sheets increasing at terrifying rates.

Yes, it will probably take several centuries for a complete melting, but even if 10% is melted by the end of the century that is 24 feet of rise!

Global warming is NOT going to stop increasing anytime soon. Sea level rise is NOT going to stop anytime soon. At least on any human time scale of any of us or our grandchildren.

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