U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

[BumRushDaShow]

Last edited Fri Jul 6, 2018, 11:06 AM - Edit history (2)

Source: New York Times

The Labor Department released its monthly hiring and unemployment figures on Friday morning, providing one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy.
The Numbers

■ 213,000 jobs were added last month. Economists had expected a gain of about 200,000.

■ The unemployment rate rose to 4 percent, from 3.8 percent.

■ Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2 percent after growing by 0.3 percent in May. The year-over-year gain is now 2.7 percent.

The Takeaway

Arriving on the ninth anniversary of the recession's end, the latest jobs numbers cap a string of encouraging economic reports. Many estimates for growth in the second quarter are bouncing above 4 percent. The manufacturing sector buzzed with activity last month, and spending on construction rose. New jobless claims are dragging along at historically low levels. And many consumers displayed their confidence in the economy by kicking off the summer with a new car purchase.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/06/business/economy/jobs-report.html

---

Am guessing my buddy is running late but will update...

Edit to add - for all the juicy details see these -

https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142102789#post6
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142102789#post8
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142102789#post11
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142102789#post15

[Bengus81]

1. Pretty big jump in unemployment in one month.........

Watch for more and more of that. Wages are up 2.7% from a year ago?!?! You make 10.00 per hour you now make 10.27?? Hell,that wouldn't pay for increases in gas prices around here.

Where's the big KICK from those zillion $$$ tax cuts for Corporations??

[raccoon]

2. But how many of those are jobs that pay a living wage? NT

[B2G]

4. Probably a lot.

"Hiring in the manufacturing sector was particularly strong at 36,000, while the retail sector slumped, losing 22,000 jobs. Business and professional services as well as health care also had strong showings."

It's also reported that there is a shortage of workers in just about every sector. This presents opportunities for those who are already employed to move into a better job.

[Jimbo S]

34. Exhibit A

I start my new job on the 16th!

[B2G]

36. Congrats!!

😊

[Jimbo S]

37. Thank you! eom

[TheFrenchRazor]

39. yeah... not likely. nt

[B2G]

40. Why? nt

[mountain grammy]

3. A crash is coming and we all know it.

[B2G]

5. I certainly hope not. NT

[yallerdawg]

12. You didn't know Republicans crash the economy?

Clinton won when Bush/Reagan did.

Obama won when Bush 2.0 did.

Now, we got the deficit-busting tax break behind us...and now it's time for a D to clean up the mess.

[mountain grammy]

22. I believe it's inevitable..get ready.

[CountAllVotes]

13. Major crash ...

Bigger than 2008 as a lot more $ is involved in this faux economy.

Thanks for nothing dumpy.

[kurtcagle]

27. Crash Signs

* Yield curve is heading negative
* Oil prices are up 25% YOY.
* DJIA hit peak in Jan, down 10%, trading range bound. Behavior looks a lot like mid 2007
* Tax "jolt" had surprisingly little apparent effect.
* Retail is in a mess, and many large retail mall bond notes come due this year.
* Number of startups are down (usually a good indicator that early stage capital is drying up.
* Finally, tariffs are already leaving a lot of farmers stranded with a good crop yield and no buyers.

Also worth noting - the low unemployment numbers have more to do with the growing number of retiring boomers (Baby Boom peaked in 1954, which means that nearly half of all boomers are retiring this year or next). Participation rate is dropping pretty dramatically.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

28. Thanks for those additional stats and perspectives.

I'm also wondering what the effect will be of running so many of our migrant labor force out of the country (or into hiding) will be on our economy. Haven't seen any thoughtful analysis on that huge issue. We just don't have labor available to replace them.

..........

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. "Am guessing my buddy is running late but will update..."

Good morning. You are correct. I got up at 5:30, but I had clothes on the line. With rain in the forecast, I had chores to do this morning before leaving for work. Besides, you did such a great job last month that I knew the thread would be in good hands. I made my trip in worry-free, not arriving until 9:15.

Thank you.

I guess I should point to the BLS, just because.

Unemployment up, you say? Who can we find to blame for this change from 3.94 percent to 3.95 percent? Obama holdovers; I'm sure of it.

Payroll employment increases by 213,000 in June; unemployment rate rises to 4.0%

Economic News Release USDL-18-1110

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, July 6, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- JUNE 2018


Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while retail trade lost jobs.

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage point to 4.0 percent in June, and the number of unemployed persons increased by 499,000 to 6.6 million. A year earlier, the jobless rate was 4.3 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 7.0 million. (See table A-1.)
....

In June, the civilian labor force grew by 601,000. The labor force participation rate edged up by 0.2 percentage point over the month to 62.9 percent but has shown no clear trend thus far this year. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 213,000 in June and has grown by 2.4 million over the last 12 months. Over the month, job gains occurred in professional and business services, manufacturing, and health care, while employment in retail trade declined. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 50,000 in June and has risen by 521,000 over the year.

Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs in June. Durable goods manufacturing accounted for nearly all of the increase, including job gains in fabricated metal products (+7,000), computer and electronic products (+5,000), and primary metals (+3,000). Motor vehicles and parts also added jobs over the month (+12,000), after declining by 8,000 in May. Over the past year, manufacturing has added 285,000 jobs.
....

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.98. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 72 cents, or 2.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $22.62 in June. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised up from +159,000 to +175,000, and the change for May was revised up from +223,000 to +244,000. With these revisions, employment gains in April and May combined were 37,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 211,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for July is scheduled to be released on Friday, August 3, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

[BumRushDaShow]

18. There you are!

Just got done doing a few chores myself. Had a little rain this morning but supposedly some more on the way here shortly (missed some earlier in the week and the plants need a good soaking after our 7-day heatwave)!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. Additional links:

Last edited Fri Jul 6, 2018, 12:58 PM - Edit history (3)

Sometimes you can read articles in The Wall Street Journal. without a subscription, and sometimes you can't. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

The June Jobs Report in 8 Charts

{It's not loading right now. Maybe later.}

U.S. Adds 213,000 Jobs in June

Last Updated Jul 6, 2018 at 9:57 am ET

The U.S. added 213,000 jobs in June, topping economist forecasts of 195,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4% from 3.8%, and average hourly earnings rose 2.7% from a year earlier. Follow along as we dig into the numbers.

{snip}

June Jobs Report - The Numbers - Briefly - WSJ

8:47 AM EST JUL 6, 2018 By Sarah Chaney

The U.S. economy added 213,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate increased to 4.0%. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected 195,000 new jobs and a 3.8% unemployment rate. Here are some key figures from Friday’s Labor Department report.

{snip}

People often wonder how in the world the BLS comes up with all this information. This article from three months ago will help explain things:

Monthly Labor Review

JANUARY 2018

The Current Population Survey—tracking unemployment in the United States for over 75 years

For more than three-quarters of a century, the Current Population Survey has been a vital tool for providing information on U.S. unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article highlights major developments in the survey’s history.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) has been conducted for more than three-quarters of a century.1 From the outset, the main purpose of the survey has been to gather information on the employment status of the U.S. population, with an emphasis on the measurement of unemployment. CPS data have been used by policymakers and others to gauge both the degree of labor market weakness during recessions and the strength of the job market in economic expansions. More than 900 monthly reports on national employment and unemployment have been issued since the survey began in March 1940.

The survey also has been used to provide a wealth of information on a wide range of other subjects—some related to the labor market and some unrelated—through supplemental questions to the basic survey instrument. Over the years, supplements to the CPS have been used to collect data on topics ranging from income and worker displacement to tobacco use and participation in the arts.

The main objective of the CPS, however, has always been to measure unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article summarizes some of the major developments in achieving this goal over the past three-quarters of a century.
....

-- -- -- --

Other useful links:

From the BLS Twitter account:

More charts and analysis on the June nonfarm payroll employment numbers http://go.usa.gov/4UqY #JobsReport #BLSdata

Link to tweet

See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz

Link to tweet

* * * * *

We still don't have a BLS commissioner. The acting commissioner has been in that position for, gee, at least 16 months. Here's his statement, which is the fast and dirty thing that the TV news anchors can recite:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

Statement of

William J. Wiatrowski
Acting Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, July 6, 2018

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

* * * * *

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/10141767325#post6

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts:

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ‎@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

* * * * *

Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

[e-mail]
* * * * *

Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna

Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

* * * * *

Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

[e-mail]

I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. [e-mail]

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

* * * * *

[videohead5]

9. I still don't see it's better now

Then when Obama was president...in fact job growth was better when Obama was president. I thought they wanted 3% growth? if we were getting 3% growth you would see 250,000 to 350,000 jobs being created.that is not happening.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. Job growth over the last few years:

From ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Historical Trend



[CHART] Historical Trend - Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment

[Jimbo S]

35. Is there a significant difference?

From where I sit, I'd say not. No better/worse than Obama's second term.

[Yavin4]

41. It's not better, and it won't get better. It's all hype.

We've come out of the era of "free" money, and now we're in the era of rising interest rates to head off inflation which will only get worse. The Fed will tighten the money supply and send us into a recession probably mid-2020.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. Links to earlier reports

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2018:

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2018:

Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 200,000 in January; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2018:

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2017:

I didn't get around to it.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 261,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2017:

ADP says 235,000 private-sector jobs added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2017:

Unemployment rate falls to 4.2% in September; payroll employment changes little (-33,000)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2017:

Companies Add Fewest U.S. Workers in Nearly a Year, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in August; unemployment rate changes little (4.4%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2017:

Private-sector job growth surges in August with a little Amazon assist, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 209,000 in July; unemployment rate changes little at 4.3%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 178,000 jobs in July: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 222,000 in June; unemployment rate changes little at 4.4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2017:

ADP Data on Private Hiring Suggest U.S. Job Market Is Moderating

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 138,000 in May; unemployment rate changes little (4.3%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2017:

U.S. companies add 253,000 jobs in May: ADP

[irisblue]

14. Is there a citation for wages, listed in dollars & cents in these reports?

Thank you for doing all this work. I'm valuing this so much.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. Second paragraph from the last:

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Establishment Data Survey
....

In June, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 5 cents to $26.98. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 72 cents, or 2.7 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 4 cents to $22.62 in June. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

[irisblue]

20. Oh thank you so much

..

[mahatmakanejeeves]

15. "Unemployment of African Americans rose from 5.9% to 6.5% illustrating two things--"

This is an inconvenient fact:

Link to tweet

Unemployment of African Americans rose from 5.9% to 6.5% illustrating two things--(1) last months 5.9% was likely a measurement fluke as the previous 3 months were 6.6-6.9% and (2) we have real problems accurately measuring unemployment among African Americans.

Link to tweet

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t02.htm

[yuiyoshida]

17. I wonder about the people who are out of work and have

given up looking...

[Igel]

29. That's the uptick in unemployment

More jobs created than lost, but 200k people rejoined the workforce by simply beginning to actively look for work.

(As for AfAm unemployment, it's clear what the breakdown of those 200k are, so that puts some uncertainty in that particular uptick; perhaps it's 6.5%, perhaps it's less once the unattached workers rejoining the job search 'gig' are subtracted out.)

[duforsure]

19. Huge jump in unemployment

And it'll get a lot worse now that he's using tariffs as a weapon against others now. Add to that all the companies now looking at moving out of the reach of trump , the numbers will go up dramatically, that is if he lets them use the real numbers, which I doubt he will. He'll promote it by putting out phony numbers then claim he's helping us, when in reality he's doing the opposite , again. He's destroying American, for putin.

[BumRushDaShow]

21. He'll just omit talking about the bad stats

notably like those cited in post #15, where he has been running around making false claims about AA unemployment.

Once the effects of the multi-country trade war kick in, you won't hear about the economy anymore. He'll go on to something else like how great it is destroying immigrant families or how poor people need to get off food stamps since he gets by on KFC... and other things.....

[Igel]

30. This particular uptick is a good thing.

It's not people being fired. It's people who weren't counted because they'd joined the mass of workers no longer in the workface rejoining the workforce.

"The workforce" isn't just those with jobs; it includes those actively looking for work.

In other words, 200k people who weren't counted because they weren't looking are now either employed or seeking employment. If everybody who could work joined the workforce, unemployment would skyrocket. This is as true now as it was 5 or 15 years ago, but it's a worse problem since 2010.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

23. Thanks guys, for publishing these stats. Great work!

Last edited Fri Jul 6, 2018, 02:21 PM - Edit history (1)

One stat I would like to see is a rating system on the quality of the new jobs and how it compares to the past. By "quality", I mean long-term job stability and good terms of employment such as healthcare, retirement plans, etc.

Corporations use recessions to wring-out employee benefits in order to re-hire at lower costs with fewer perks....

..........

[BumRushDaShow]

26. You have to thank mahatmakanejeeves

and usually progree pops in occasionally to add more.

I just created the placeholder thread!

[modrepub]

24. Anyone Know How Immigrant Labor Shortage Works In These #s?

Been hearing lots of smaller businesses that use migrant labor are missing jobs because guess what, not rolling out the red carpet for these people means ( since no American will take this job) that work gets delayed or canceled. My brother had a retaining wall project that the contractor delayed a few months because he couldn't find anyone to hire to do the work. Am assuming its happening all over (and didn't Trump get all his quota filled for Mara Largo?!?). Does migrant labor pay payroll taxes? If they do I'd think the state/local tax receipts are also showing the effects of migrant labor shortages. Happy Friday!

[BumRushDaShow]

25. Be prepared for a whole lot of delays in stuff

Food harvesting and processing (including seasonal produce, meat, and eggs/dairy), landscaping, and more recently, multi-family rental unit clean-outs and interior re-construction/painting, etc.

But...

[manicdem]

31. Stronger economy

Looks like the economy is stronger and there's more confidence in it. Better jobs and more people getting in the workforce. Opportunities are growing.

[Louis1981]

32. Cause for concern or nah?

Should we be worried about these numbers at all?
Along with the economy right now, how can we ensure large voter turnout in November and in 2020 to regain leadership?

[BumRushDaShow]

33. Wages are still generally stagnant

and big corporations have taken their tax breaks and used them to give investors bigger dividends and buy back stock rather than raise wages as was supposedly "promised".

[FSogol]

38. WTF? You actually think Democrats want the unemployment rate to increase?