U.S. Soybean Prices Crumble as Trade War Sparks Brazil Rally

[brooklynite]

Source: Bloomberg

Soybean prices in the U.S. and Brazil, the nations that account for roughly 80 percent of global exports, have taken drastically different paths thanks to Donald Trump’s trade war.

In the U.S., average cash prices fell to about $7.79 a bushel this week, the lowest in almost a decade, according to an index compiled by the Minneapolis Grain Exchange. China’s tariffs on American goods including farm products have now taken effect after the U.S. implemented a raft of duties earlier in the day Friday and President Trump threatened more action.

Meanwhile in Brazil, exporters have been handed high times. Soybeans to be loaded in August at the nation’s Paranagua port fetched $2.21 a bushel more than Chicago futures as of Friday, the widest gap since data starts in 2014. The premium has more than tripled since the end of May, according to data from Commodity 3.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-05/u-s-soy-prices-are-crumbling-as-trade-war-sparks-brazil-rally

---

Didn't see THAT coming...

[Maxheader]

1. Amazing the ignorance..

of some farmers on ag sites I visit..they are willing to suffer
the tariffs impact because it will lead to better things!!
Make cheetoz look good...oh brother...

[Wellstone ruled]

5. Their Congressmen have promised them

a cash bailout for their votes.

[PearliePoo2]

9. Do you think that a bailout is likely to happen?

Would a bailout be subject to a vote by the entire Congress?

Thanks for your opinion!

[Wellstone ruled]

18. Yes,several Dems will vote for this.

We have seen this before. Key Companies to watch for are some of these, Farm Bureau Insurance(Farmers),RFD TV,Titian Financial,(largest writer of Farm Machine Leasing)Ag Reports on the Largest AM midwest Radio Stations,and of course the Letters to the Editors of local and County newspapers.

Bottom line is this,the Mega Ag Companies are at the ready to snap up any decent Ag Land at rock bottom prices if this Bill does fail.

[Dopers_Greed]

20. I wonder if that is an objective of the trade wars

Destroying land values, so that small farmers will be forced to sell.

Basically a big giveaway for corporate ag.

[Wellstone ruled]

22. If you know anything about the Demographics of

the so called Farm Belt. In that you will find a glaring stat. Most are older White People who rely on Migrant workers for the most part. Trump is rounding this segment up and deporting them. Most importantly is the Commodities Infrastructure and if the Farm Economy crashes,this Infrastructure seems to be leveraged up to the max,that means Elevators who are stressed and loaded with Grains they have zero buyers for and with markets moving south on a daily basis,one can see the disaster wave coming at them.


Have two Corn Grower acquaintances in Western Minnesota,and if it was not for their Contracts with the local Ethanol Plants,they would be in real dire money straights. Both are sitting with their Bean Harvest still in the Bins and no buyers and now the Weather is their big enemy. Heat and Humidity,mold,and deteriorating Oil content will no doubt cost them dearly if they do find buyers. Remember,last years planting was forty percent greater for beans than the previous year.

But,these two families are dyed in the wool Trumper's to the hilt.

[stuffmatters]

24. I view the Republican 2008 Crash similarly:Homeowners lost, Wall Street hoovered up the firesales

So this is probably Phase 2 of the decimation of middle & working class security by the "we want everything"class.

[Blue_Tires]

8. Those farmers only really cared about kicking the Mexicans out anyway.

[luvtheGWN]

17. A couple of things to consider:

First, farmers of all stripes have to think positive thoughts, since so much of their livelihood depends on the weather.
Second, CROP INSURANCE.

Yes, if these tariffs hang around for the next two years, many of them will fold, but others will sell their land to developers and the US will have to import more and more food items.

[Maxheader]

30. Yes, it has always been a thought in the back of my mind..

Farmers having to sell out to the big ag boys..Who can
manipulate the prices through supply and demand..
Those guys can let land lay idle...Drive up the prices so
a loaf of bread is 5$...All the products that use soybeans,
same deal..The nightmare for me is low production here
in the states and a reliance on other countries to take up
the slack...IF they aren't mad and decide to place embargo's
on any export to americu..

[NickB79]

42. Not sure if crop insurance covers tariff damage

Plus, crops are generally really good this year, meaning large harvests, which ironically could be bad as farmers are still selling last year's beans.

[pbmus]

25. Take the chemicals out.....look like real food....

Wouldn’t sell....and the seedmasters would not be hoppy....

[paleotn]

27. Many farmers are leveraged out the kazoo....

They can't wait until things get better. Without government subsidies of some sort, they will lose their farms.

[Sherman A1]

2. And so it begins

Hang on, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.

[DemoTex]

3. "Trouble in the Fields"

"Baby I know that we've got trouble in the fields
When the bankers swarm like locust out there turning away our yield
The trains roll by our silos, silver in the rain
They leave our pockets full of nothing
But our dreams and the golden grain .."

Nanci Griffith/Rick West

[duforsure]

4. Farmers even with their assurances

Will be screwed, along with cutbacks in many other businesses. This has already backfired on them , and the consequences will be dramatic as they lose their farms and businesses have to fold up. The American people also will pay dearly from what the imbecile has done to this country , and its people. He'll claim the opposite them blame them all for HIS actions.

[hibbing]

6. Nebraska

Yet my idiot inherited gazillionaire governor will still praise the orange one, my two idiot senators will still praise him, and the vast majority of my neighboring farmers will still vote for that rotting putrid party. Although Benny Sasse may tweet out some luke warm criticism, but will vote with the party regardless.

Peace

[Achilleaze]

10. Your idiot governor HATED the republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief

before he submissively fell to his knees before the republican Draft-Dodger-in-Chief.

Peetee Rickets another Weird Silver-spoon Multi-millionaire republican Whackjob (R)

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. It's a bad time to open up a John Deere dealership. NT

[olegramps]

12. On the other hand it might provided an excellent opportunity to get some good equipment cheap.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. Not to mention some farms that have been in the family for generations. NT

[enid602]

34. A new Great Depression

The plight of the farmers is tragic, but remember that the real significance of declining agricultural exports is widening trade deficits. Without Mexicans to buy corn and Chinese to buy soybeans, our trade deficits will double or triple. Remember these are also the people who invest so heavily in the US, especially the Chinese. Not any more. We're talking huge imbalance of payments. This no whim of a petty dictator, it is Putin's desire to see us crumble like the USSR.

[paleotn]

28. Bada bing!

[dembotoz]

40. Years ago I worked for a shopper in a more rural area

The implement dealers are gone.
The only remaining sold ford truck and farm stuff. Last time I was in there it was ford with a tiny farm
Repair counter
Feed stores if still around sell lawn and pet food...
I still know where some farm stores are, but it hasn't been a good time to be a Deere dealer around here for years

[SunSeeker]

11. Winning!

[forgotmylogin]

19. Ironically, Li'l Conman Don is making the rest of the world first again. (n/t)

[IronLionZion]

13. The US is the world's largest soy producer and exporter

and the biggest soybean states are Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio.

Dems need to pick up some states here. Maybe win back Iowa and Ohio and strengthen our hold on Minnesota.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

15. US soybean export market to China was $13 billion. That going to Brazil and elsewhere. . . . nt

[KY_EnviroGuy]

16. Thanks for posting the good Bloomberg article, brooklynite.

Here's some more perspectives from farm country:

Trade fight is on, threatening US agriculture
By Chris Kick - July 6, 2018
Link: https://www.farmanddairy.com/news/trade-fight-is-on-threatening-u-s-agriculture/498319.html

(snips)

During a news conference with reporters July 3, Purdue University experts said U.S. soybeans will face a $3 per bushel import tariff, which will encourage China to look elsewhere for most of its supply. “China is going to buy all the beans they can from non U.S. sources first,” said Chris Hurt, ag economics professor at Purdue.

Because China uses so much soybeans, the country will ultimately have to import some from the U.S., Hurt said, but our beans will be a last resort. “They’re (China) going to buy the minimum they can from us and that’s the residual supplier that we become,” he said.
-----
The American Soybean Association says the tariffs are hurting farms across the country, because China is the top market for U.S. soybeans, importing nearly a third of the U.S. crop in 2017.

“It is imperative that we maintain the robust market we have worked so hard for decades to establish with China,” said ASA President John Heisdorffer, a soybean producer from Iowa. “They (China) have a sizeable feed industry that’s dependent on soybeans, the largest swine herd in the world, the largest global aquaculture industry, and are rapidly modernizing their poultry, egg, dairy, and beef industries. They are a vital trading partner, and we need to continue to do business with China without the sting of these tariffs.”

In the long-term, these farmers will be hit with multiple whammies: tariffs, higher machinery costs, higher labor coast (few immigrants), higher healthcare costs and ultimately - higher taxes.

[Cold War Spook]

21. "I see the weary farmer"

"I see the weary farmer just plowing up the loam and I see the auction hammer a'selling off his home" Pete Seeger

[GulfCoast66]

23. Nice to see Brazil get a win. At something.

[sandensea]

36. Ouch!

[dembotoz]

38. should be remembered at least they made the tournement....us did not

[sandensea]

39. True - but don't forget that soccer is almost a way of life for Brazil

As five-time World Cup champions, they take their team's performance in these things very seriously.

It's like the way a Patriots fan feels after a Super Bowl loss - but times ten.

[marble falls]

26. So is this what winning is all about?

[BigmanPigman]

29. OK...who are we supposed to support as Dems?

Local, small farmers, larger mega farmers, who? No matter which group I side with I get tons of hate responses in return. Which farmers support the fucking moron now, a year ago, two years ago? Is this an "all or nothing" game or is there a difference when it comes to Dems V. GOP and red states, farmers, and tariffs? someone enlighten me without being nasty. Thanks.

[Maxheader]

31. Usually in the farm belt..

Local, small farmers, larger mega farmers, who? No matter which group I side with I get tons of hate responses in return. Which farmers support the fucking moron now, a year ago, two years ago? Is this an "all or nothing" game or is there a difference when it comes to Dems V. GOP and red states, farmers, and tariffs? someone enlighten me without being nasty. Thanks.

The state politicians will direct their fiery speeches towards the obvious issues..
Low prices..high expenses...Unsympathetic voters far removed from agriculture
haven't in the past listen to farmers complaints...If..when prices start to climb for
food, maybe they'll listen and we hope it won't be too late.

[BigmanPigman]

32. First of all, thank you for taking my sincere post seriously.

Secondly, are the local politicians supporting local farmers and their needs or are they supporting the moron and his policies (tariffs) which hurt the local framers? Also, are the local, smaller farmers pro-tRump due to his policies in the past, but now are not so sure when they see how his policies (tariffs) hurt them...along with higher taxes and more expensive health care?

[Maxheader]

37. Business Ag TV shows..

On the air channel that I get...Has some excellent
interviews with people from organizations like farm bureau,
and various agricultural businesses...big influential corporations.
The don't mince words when talking about the farm bill and
tariffs..Farmers watch these shows..and advertisers...Compare
what these guys say to what the state governors and reps are
saying...I'm highly critical of guys like bernie sanders that comes
out and say he thinks its great tRump is addressing the great
trade imbalance between americu and it trading partners...

I wonder about that..it is very complicated...Countries try
to regulate imports that might negatively affect their own
agriculture.

[BigmanPigman]

44. Is this listened to by both large and small farm owners?

Is there a different agenda or a same agenda that they seem to agree with as far as tariffs are concerned? The moron said that farmers will understand and accept the tariffs and the reasoning behind them and will be willing to sacrifice for the overall good for the GOP and country. He said that their loyalty towards him proves that they are the truly patriotic Americans for putting thier own farms and $ behind the necessary MAGA goals for the long term (these are HIS words, not mine). Do farmers, large and small, support his "grand plan" trade war?

[Maxheader]

45. They lick tRumps shoes...

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article214430269.html

[BigmanPigman]

46. Man, I would think that the Gov would be worried about

getting reelected with that pro-moron stance. He must be hiding money someplace to be able to have that attitude with his state's population and economy.

[jpak]

33. This is bad for Brazil's forests

More will be converted to soy fields.

A Trumpoian double victory.

Such a stale genius!

[cntrfthrs]

35. no sympathy here....

vote for that pissant again farmers....

[olddad56]

41. how many of Trump's friends bought Brazilian soybean futues prior to the annoucement

and sold US soybean futures. Someone is making millions over this.

[Bengus81]

43. We always tell Trump supporters....don't laugh,they're coming for YOU next. And...they have

They love their little snowflake BS,they love seeing Trump GUTTING everything including health care as if there is some magic cocoon around a Trump voter that spares them.

Well,now him and his ilk have come for these farmers and is SHAFTING them with this piss ant trade war. Thing is I have ZERO sympathy for anyone who voted for Trump. Anyone going to his Nazi style rallies in 2016 knew he was fucking nuts,but they pulled a lever for him anyway.

[Takket]

47. any country that thinks it can fight a trade war

against the rest of the world in today's highly mobile global community.... is lead by a fucking idiot

anywhere the US leaves a hole, someone else will fill it in. we are not unique in any way.