Bad news for Trump: Rising GOP chance of losing House

[riversedge]

Source: axios.com



Alexi McCammond 7 hours ago

Democrats now have their best shot at winning the House, according to Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball that just shifted 17 races in their favor.

Why it matters: It's the first time this cycle that the analysts at the University of Virginia Center for Politics are giving Democrats better than a 50% chance of winning the House. "[T]he Democrats now look like soft favorites to win a House majority with a little more than 100 days to go."

Data: University of Virginia Center for Politics; Chart: Chris Canipe/Axios

Sabato, along with his Crystal Ball team at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, has been among the most conservative analysts, repeatedly telling us that House control was a coin flip, despite widespread projections of a Democratic takeover.

"This president is not popular, and no one believes there is any chance the GOP comes out of this election with more seats than they hold now," the Crystal Ball's Kyle Kondik writes.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/2018-midterms-democrats-house-respresentatives-trump-76cb45e9-e4f5-424e-b251-62cdb373475e.html

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well, count me skeptical. He predicted Hillary would win also.


Alexi McCammond
‏Verified account @alexi

Democrats now have their best shot at winning the House — Sabato’s Crystal Ball just moved 17 races in their favor.

Link to tweet

[louis-t]

1. Well, she did win the popular vote, so....

And it's hard to predict how much cheating went on. Pootie did have his boney fingers on the buttons.

[The Hitman]

3. No

Emphatically no. Where did you get this information? You can't just say things like that.

[lagomorph777]

4. My apology - got the wrong impression back on the day after the election.

[titaniumsalute]

7. Sabato is NOT pro Putin or GOP

He is an exceptional data analyst and researcher. Please don't spread BS. He calls the data as he sees it even if we don't agree with it.

[Liberalagogo]

5. PLEASE....nobody get cocky....

just GOTV!!!!!

[FakeNoose]

14. We must be prepared and keep our eyes on the prize

Even small victories count. The GOP figured this out long ago.

[Liberalagogo]

15. In other words....

[dalton99a]

6. GOTV and throw their asses to the curb

[backtoblue]

8. + 1 GOTV!!!!

[Firestorm49]

9. I'll believe it when I see it.

Polls are shit.

If a poll is in your favor, you jump for joy. When its not, you boo boo all day. We all learned from the last presidential election the accuracy of polls. Of course, there was outside influence. Do you really think that that outside influence has tucked its tail between it’s legs and hobbled away? Hardly.

Fact; Republicans want to hold onto to absolute power beyond all else. So do Democrats, by the way. It’s just the historic devious manner by which Republicans win that so typically stereotypes their party. (Example; hanging chads) As has been shown, they will even resort to colluding with communists if necessary just to retain control and finally get the chance to turn their dream (and Ayn Rand’s) America into a fascist state. And, they’re doing pretty good so far.

Right now we have a party still obsessing about Hillary as much as the Republicans, lacking strong decisive leadership, and despite its failings, it has managed to turn numerous local and state seats from red to blue. Nice work. It sounds like strength by accident; the resentment of David Dennison, or John Baron, or John Smith, or whatever the hell his name is today.

So, yippee ! A poll shows that Dems might take control. I myself will be thrilled to see the actual outcome, but I’m no longer basing any sort of optimism on polls.

[LanternWaste]

10. Polls are a wonderful tool for social snapshots in a wide variety of disciplines.

You appear to use them as nothing more than a way to insult everyone who thinks differently than you. However, if you do you want to discount valid science, realize it's a reflection of your you... not of anyone else.

[CreekDog]

28. +1

[WinstonSmith4740]

17. Here's a reason for optimism.

I feel the same way about polls. But read this article. It puts a whole different light on it, and goes beyond raw numbers.

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/14/politics/poll-of-the-week-partisan-polls/index.html

[durablend]

18. Not believing it either

Republicans are going to CHEAT their asses off. This you can count on. No way they're going to risk going to jail.

[BigmanPigman]

23. DITTO!

[2naSalit]

27. Helsinki was the face-to-face

where pootie TELLS dipshit that he's manipulating the next election to get rid of all those pesky disloyals.

[LanternWaste]

11. The various indicators lead me to be more hopeful about Nov than I've been in a long time.

Not that the data, one way or the other, would force our complacency... anymore than a strong day on Wall Street would compel anyone to quit their job.

[zentrum]

12. Now if only they can

...delay the Kavanaugh confirmation until Nov. I know the Senate confirms but a losing GOP might help the weak ones stand up to Trump. A sqoash more.

[StevieM]

13. Hillary would have won had it not been for the Comey intervention.

And it would have been decisive.

[BigmanPigman]

24. He is the main reason and

I will never, ever forgive him. He is the reason we are in this fucking nightmare. Fuck Comey 100%!!!

[Hortensis]

29. AND the NYT, AP, Russia, voter suppression interventions,

etc. This is a lot bigger than just Comey.

I really can't believe Comey just woke up one morning and decided to betray his country and see if he could get away with it. He and McCabe both put their careers on the line and both were both fired for cause after certain of their actions immediately triggered ethics investigations.

Nor do I believe the NYT's agreement with an unnamed authority to bury coverage of the FBI's investigation into Trump-Russia was just more of its biased coverage against Democrats in 2016. Interestingly, the MSM, including all networks, has virtually never connected its coverages of the #1 and #2 at the FBI. Both were fired for actions expected to influence the election in one direction only, but seemingly any connection is just coincidence not worth mentioning. As for investigating the possibility of this being part of a larger conspiracy involving some in their own organizations, ridiculous.

Rant over. Until next time.

Sure, this pollster was wrong in 2016. ALL the major polling services were dead wrong, an enormous shock to them as nothing even approaching this had happened before...

[mehrrh]

16. passing the blame

Pre-empting a Democratic win in November, Trump is already claiming that Russia hates him because he is "tough" on Russia, so the Russians will help Democrats win in November.
Ignoring that only Republicans encourage foreign meddling in our elections, ignoring that the Russians were absolutely a large factor in Trump's victory, Trump is presenting the argument to be used by his sycophants and Trumpeteers to use when they lose congress -- it's because the Russians helped Democrats win.
It's a two-fer for him -- he accuses Democrats, and his base believes the election results are illegitimate.

[Hayduke Bomgarte]

19. "He predicted Hillary would win also."

She DID win...

[Scurrilous]

20. K&R

[SunSeeker]

21. Bad news for Trump is good news for America. nt

[DeminPennswoods]

22. Wasserman/Cook Political Report just shifted

PA-17 from toss up to lean D based on the latest Monmouth polling.

[SkatmanRoth]

25. Blue Wave

No polls are needed where I am; you can just feel it.

[Raster]

26. TAKE. NOTHING. FOR. GRANTED...

...WE need to turn out and vote like we are 10 points down and we are throwing a "Hail Mary."

[metalbot]

30. Predictive markets have Democrats with 1.5-1 odds right now

Though that has been consistent for a while.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/2704/Which-party-will-control-the-House-after-2018-midterms

For those not familiar with predictive markets, they are essentially futures contracts that allow you to bet on future events. What the current spread represents is that you would pay $66 to buy a contract worth $100 if the Democrats win, and $38 to buy a contract worth $100 if the Republicans win.

I realize that the predictive markets aren't large enough to give a true sample, but they are potentially a better barometer of who people _think_ will win, which is different from a poll in which you simply ask people.