Poll: Democrat O'Rourke trails Ted Cruz by just 4 percentage points in Texas

[herding cats]

Source: NBC

WASHINGTON — As Texas Democrats attempt to win a major statewide contest for the first time in almost three decades, a new NBC News/Marist poll finds Democrat Beto O’Rourke trailing Republican Sen. Ted Cruz by just 4 percentage points.

O’Rourke, a congressman from El Paso who has ignited Democratic hopes with his impressive fundraising, has 45 percent support among registered voters compared with Cruz’s 49 percent. Six percent of voters remain undecided.

While both candidates have largely consolidated their bases — with O’Rourke capturing the support of 90 percent of Democrats and Cruz securing 91 percent of Republicans — independents in the state are equally split: Forty-six percent of them back O’Rourke, while 45 percent support Cruz.



Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/poll-democrat-o-rourke-trails-ted-cruz-just-four-percentage-n902946

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This is so close!

[Dopers_Greed]

1. A wingnut friend of mine was posting about this race earlier on social media

Seems he's worried about Texas flipping blue.

"Beto would ruin Texas"

I didn't have the heart to tell him that the Senate is part of the Federal government, so there's not much Beto could personally do to ruin Texas.

[Gregory Peccary]

4. You should ask him....

.... how specifically Beto would ruin Texas? Wingnuts usually get flustered quickly when confronted with simple questions and can't even answer logically.

[RhodeIslandOne]

11. Heez a dirty librul!!!!

That's all these asswipes can come up with.

[Cha]

27. lol!

[Cha]

26. I bet he meant

metaphorically.. as in Texas would have one Democratic Senator!!

When in reality Beto would be a badge of honor for Texas.

[hlthe2b]

2. Margin of error is +/- 3.8 points.... Texas, you can do this!

[Snellius]

3. Surprised Cruz has 42% of Latino vote

Moderates are staying away. Voter enthusiasm, which is harder to measure, will make a big difference. Right in Texas seems fairly predictable but interest may wane. Trump intervention may backfire here. Even if he will.

[Gregory Peccary]

5. Yep....

The only poll I saw that correctly predicted a Trump victory vs Hillary weighed voter enthusiasm heavily in their formula.

[JCMach1]

6. Trump is not popular in the same way here as other 'red' states

Republicans for the most part were very unenthusiastic about Trump...

However, it has been a long, long drought for any Dem to win statewide office. Beto can do it, but it's going to take a HUGE wave behind his back.

Right now, DEAD HEAT.

BETO signs are everywhere and have been for months. I have yet to see a single sign for Cruz. Note, I live in a very red Dallas suburb (Dallas proper is Blue).

[Snellius]

7. Thanks. Know little about Texas. They don't seem to play politics by the usual rules

Curious why there is less enthusiasm for Trump down there. Texans seem stubborn but far from stupid. Home of Molly Ivins and Ann Richards after all. Do the Bushes or Bush types still hold any sway?

[JCMach1]

10. They voted against Clinton as much as anything

... there were quite a few local stories about this during 2016. Yard signs and bumper stickers were few and far between down here. In fact, I have seen more BETO signs that I ever saw Trump signs, or Clinton signs for that matter. I think, where I live at least, suburban educated Republicans were just not that excited about Trump.

Cruz has made powerful enemies in Texas. For an example of how poorly he's doing, our current Gov. (who is running for reelection) is up by +19 in the Same poll that has Cruz up by only +4.

If there is a Republican enthusiasm/turnout gap in TX, that will likely sink Cruz. The Gov. would probably survive, but not Cruz.

Another reason it isn't so easy to change things here is STRAIGHT PARTY VOTING. You can walk in and tell the machine to automatically, only vote for one party. Are Republicans going to SPLIT their vote??? If no, BETO's votes have to come from elsewhere.

[Snellius]

13. The one-party, one-click voting machines are unreal.

Interesting too how its rival, CA, has gone in the opposite direction of encouraging no parties at all. Also impressive how Repubs, especially in south have been so devilishly clever at subverting free and fair democracy with electoral tricks. Maybe they have to. Feel their backs are against the demographic wall.

[summer_in_TX]

20. Last year for any straight-party voting in Texas.

A new law takes effect for 2020 eliminating the straight party option.

[RogueTrooper]

36. Interesting

What (or who) was behind this change in the law?

[summer_in_TX]

41. Surprisingly I believe it was a GOP push

I have a feeling Dem legislators were using Brer Rabbit’s strategy. ‘Please oh please don’t pass that ole individual vote requirement!’ Didn’t follow it closely however.

[herding cats]

42. It takes longer which makes lines longer and causes it to take longer to vote.

Which harms working people in minority/Dem areas. Often these places have fewer polling places already, and this was just one more bit of annoyance to repress voting in Democratic districts.

Their ultimate goal is to keep Texas a non-voting state.

[summer_in_TX]

43. Makes sense.

Sure hope it is a tool to help break the lock the Repugs have on the state.

[summer_in_TX]

18. Yeah, big uphill push though.

The campaigns probably didn't feel an equal need to invest in signs. Beto's name recognition is much lower and R's in Texas have often not used that all that much.

I'm thrilled Beto is as close as he is, but not overly optimistic. He still has a ways to go as far as name recognition. Big state, and many don't watch the news any more. He is criss-crossing the state trying to get everywhere though.

But the video of him skateboarding at a What-a-Burger got him some free publicity and I suspect its cool factor is helpful.

[IronLionZion]

21. 53% of Latinos are supporting the Irishman over the Latino

Cruz can barely even speak Spanish

[Cha]

28. I cannot really believe that "42% of Latinos" would

support that Stupid Perverted Asshole.

[onetexan]

34. they see the name Cruz and they click

thinking they're voting for one of their own who'd protect their interest. We know in reality they're voting against their own interests. Cruz is a lying snake and deceiving as hell.

From my conversations with Latinos here, my observation is the majority of Latinos are Catholic or Christian and are conservative. The younger Latinos are for the most part independent - but they don't vote. The older Latinos who do vote, vote conservatively.

[Roy Rolling]

8. He's Awesome

[Cha]

29. Beto is! I saw that last night and

it was the first time I've heard him speak. He's brilliant.. that's what it takes for a Dem to win in a red state. Someone like Beto who can speak out so eloquently from his heart like that.

[onetexan]

31. Went to one of his rallies earlier this year

He's as genuinely Dem & as good as it gets. A breath of fresh air & not corrupted by big $ and RW nonsense.

[BigmanPigman]

9. Chuck Todd just ran clips from 2016 of the GOP

reps in both chambers putting down the fucking moron (during the GOP primaries of course). Cruz was saying how tRump is a liar, insane, corrupt, etc. Beto should run with this...GOP hypocrisy and corruption.

[Trust Buster]

12. I think it is damning of Texans that Beto could be 4 points behind that creep.

[joshdawg]

25. Here in Texas, nobody likes Cruz,

BUT, he has that infamous R next to his name. When one has an R next to their name, chances are good one will get elected, no matter if they are an asshole to the nth degree, like cruz.

FWIW, my vote goes to Beto.

[NOMOGOP]

14. just can't figure it out.

White. NON college educated=67%. We MUST do something about Republikkkan radio/tv propaganda. BOYCOTT advertisers only way i guess but none of those people should be voting Republikkkan.

[summer_in_TX]

19. Lots of RW talk radio all over Texas.

Bound to be one of the factors.

[onetexan]

32. yeap, when i'm on a road trip heading outside of Dallas

the radio autoseek function starts to bleep red w/ RW talk show hosts spewing Christian conservative nonsense. There are small towns where i encounter ad nauseum crosses and billboards with Bible quotes and preachy messages.

You have to remember Tx was historically a Dem state (see the numbers here, 39 Democratic governors versus 10 other): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_Texas) and take into account the Repugs have worked on their Bible Belt/racist southern strategy for a long long time to turn Tx into a deeply red state for the last 50+ years.
Many Dems here feel overwhelmed and don't vote. We call Tx a Dem non-voting state...sigh. Furthermore, from my observation the state Dem leadership aren't strong and don't provide much support for their candidates - leaves alot to be desired.

That said, there are alot more Dems in the more populous cities - Austin (unabashedly liberal and love it), Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, & El Paso. You can see from the voting maps of the 2016 election the blue votes came from these big cities. Go outside of that into the rural/agricultural areas and it's deeply red. Tells you something doesn't it?

I'm hopeful with this blue wave and w/ candidates like Beto we can in some measure begin to turn the tide. Seeing Beto signs and bumper stickers in places like Amarillo (trump territory) is encouraging.

[True_Blue]

39. This!

RW propaganda is destroying our Country! There needs to be a standard implented for what can be called "News". Propaganda networks pushing disinformation under the guise of news should be shut down completely.

[beachbum bob]

15. It is a realistic race but everything has break Orourkes way

With out sufficient democratic presence in Texas, will be difficult. Not impossible.

[marble falls]

16. He's got to keep pouring it on. This is the first time I've seen big signs out for a Democratic ...

candidate for national office since I moved out here over ten years ago. He's at least really close. A big turnout will only help them.

[dalton99a]

17. I sure hope Beto wins.

[YOHABLO]

22. He's got my vote. But I'm not a Texan. He reminds me of a young Bobby Kennedy.

[Takket]

23. Who the fuck are the 6% of dems for Cruz

I would love to find one of these people and ask what the hell they like more about Cruz

[herding cats]

24. They're lying about their party affiliation.

It's a thing, maybe more in red states (?), to demoralize the opposition. You can ignore it as childish partisan games. They never were Democrats and never will be.

They also crossover vote for weak candidates in the primaries here in an attempt to keep our stronger candidates off the ballot.

[onetexan]

33. wolf in sheep's clothing

[IronLionZion]

37. Conservatives who haven't changed their party registration

Texas used to be more Dem back in the day much likes the South. Many people changed parties over the years

[cannabis_flower]

38. There is no..

party registration in Texas. You vote in whatever primary you want. If there is a runoff, you can only vote if you didn't vote in the opposite party's primary.

[Cha]

30. Gracias, herding cats!!

Best of Luck to Beto and Texas!

[Le Gaucher]

35. if the turn out favors us.. He might win

[Hortensis]

40. Beto's raised more than twice the donations Cruz has.

This in spite of the fact that, while Cruz is extremely well known, back in July 43% of voters said they were still forming opinions about newcomer Beto.

Since it's critical for the Republicans to keep control of the senate, it's likely that big-donor dark money will start pouring in. But still.