Updated Obama versus Romney polls in 10 key battleground states

[trailmonkee]

Source: examiner.com

While Mitt Romney accepted the presidential nomination at the Republian National Convention, President Obama polled strong in a number of key swing states. Obama currently leads in nine out of the ten swing states listed below. Assuming Obama is able to keep those leads, he will certainly win re-election in November. However, Romney will probably see a small RNC bump in the polls in the coming week, and Romney only needs to gain a few percentage points in many states to be competitive once again.

As the November election draws near, pollsters will start releasing more frequent data on these key “battleground” states. Below are the updates for each state, including the most recent poll, a Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls, an average of polls from the last two weeks, and Nate Silver’s probabilities for who will win the state. Last week's update showed Romney gaining on President Obama in many key states, but that trend appears to have been reversed this week.

Florida

Electoral Votes: 29 Most Recent Poll: Obama 50%, Romney 46% (CNN/Time 8/26) RCP Average: Obama 47.3%, Romney 46.3% Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 49.5%, Romney 46.0% Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 54.6% chance of Obama win Changes Since Last Update: Florida continues to flip back and forth between Romney and Obama in the polls, and may continue to do so next week after new polls are released following Republican National Convention in Tampa. At the beginning of this week, CNN/Time had Obama with a four point lead in Florida, and the two-week average also favored Obama. Nate Silver gave Romney 56.4% chance of victory in Florida last week, but that has now changed to a 54.6% chance of an Obama victory.

Ohio

Electoral Votes: 18 Most Recent Poll:Obama 45%, Romney 45% (Columbus Dispatch 8/25) RCP Average: Obama 46.6%, Romney 45.2% Average of Polls from Last Two Weeks: Obama 48.0%, Romney 45.0% Nate Silver Probability Analysis: 69.4% chance of Obama win Changes Since Last Update: The most recent poll has Obama and Romney tied in the Buckeye State, but all the other polling indicators favor the President. Obama increased his lead in the two-week average of three polls, and Nate Silver increased Obama's chances of victory here by 5.2 percent.

Read more: http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-obama-versus-romney-polls-10-key-battleground-states-7

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Lots of detail at the link: http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-obama-versus-romney-polls-10-key-battleground-states-7

Last weeks here: http://www.examiner.com/article/updated-obama-versus-romney-polls-10-key-battleground-states-6

[zeemike]

1. And Women , blacks and Hispanics and the young go strongly for Obama

But it is too close to call...that says that old white men make up the electorate....amazing how that works.

[Panasonic]

3. And how many remaining old white men are out there?

And about 30% are going to go to Obama.

the 70% is probably around 12 million or so.

[sofa king]

8. A lot fewer than there were.

Since GWB was elected President, life expectancy for white males without insurance in southern states has dropped all the way down to 48 in some cases. For all white males in Republican states, life expectancy has dropped precipitously.

As the extreme example, statistics suggest that nearly half of the 54 year-old men in Holmes County, Mississippi who voted for George Bush in 2000 are already dead.

But of course that doesn't mean they won't vote.

[YellaDog1950]

5. And here's what Lindsey Graham has to say about that.

“The demographics race we’re losing badly,” said Sen. Lindsey O. Graham (S.C.). “We’re not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term.”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-republican-convention-emphasizes-diversity-racial-incidents-intrude/2012/08/29/b9023a52-f1ec-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html

[tomm2thumbs]

11. they need more chairs

it seemed to work for Clint

[Samantha]

2. Michigan is not a battleground state, according to Nate Silver

He says the polling there is skewed and believes the margins are much larger than those polls showed. Makes sense to me. I know Romney is from Michigan, along with three or four other states!, but Michigan knows who saved the auto industry and who insisted it be allowed to go bankrupt.

But thanks for providing this wealth of information. It generally agrees with what others says, and is very informative.

The DNC convention starts next week, and of course, I believe the Dems will get a huge bump from that. It will be an opportunity for a clearer picture to be drawn to voters as to the real differences in approach between the two parties.

Sam

[berni_mccoy]

4. Good article. Thorough inclusion of data, including Nate Silver's probabilities.

Obama leads or is tied in all 10. Big surprises: FL, NC, WI.

Obama is pulling ahead by wide margin in FL and is up by 1 in NC.

[rocktivity]

6. Yes -- it's very comprehensive and well done

Nate Silver's inclusion is a very pleasant surprise -- he, no doubt, is a pariah among the polling organizations.


rocktivity

[gateley]

10. I know! I LOVED reading those analyses!

[liberal N proud]

7. I believe the GOP will steal Ohio.

All the players are in place, voter restrictions in place and the are keeping the polls close.

[bucolic_frolic]

9. GOP owns Ohio

From Taft onward.

[liberal N proud]

12. Currently under managment of the Koch's.

[INdemo]

14. Not any more..The court ruling yesterday sited the early voting unfair and favorable to Republicans

As far as voter registrations? Well I think our grass roots canvasing gives us an advantage for registering voters.

[Panasonic]

15. Not anymore.

Federal judges has ordered the weekend put back, and Husted complied, but only for GOP-oriented percients. (I think they will go back to court on Tuesday and request uniformity on all percients, not just the GOP asshole ones - if I was SoS, I'd limit GOP-oriented areas to 6 hours weekend voting, MAXIMUM - if they miss, too fucking bad - and it'll be from 3am to 6am and again at 12am thru 3am for GOP only)


However, there is another lawsuit pending before another judge that will also remove the suppression of the minority and the Dems.

That is Jennifer Brunner's lawsuit as stated above.

[Iliyah]

13. If the truth comes out about Medicare, SSI, and the rest of Lying'Ryan's plan

it will be a landslide even tho Pres O is being out spent.

I find seniors jumping ship from their beloved GOP party either not voting or voting for O. If the GOP party loses the seniors, turn off lights, the party is over.

Even the suppression of voters and purging of legal US citizens and redistricting maps won't help the party of no.

Plus crazy and the crazier are out in full force from their party no which does not help one bit.

[Barry2012]

16. After the convention

My gut instint tells me after the convention, obama will start to widen the lead.but let's never underestimate the opponent, some people see the polls and say he's got it won already.polls can be manipulated votes can't,except in florida.lol. my point is regardless of what the polls say vote, vote, vote.there's nothing the Gop fears more than the vote of the people.

[CountAllVotes]

17. Lanslide Mr. President

LANDSLIDE!!!

[Crow73]

18. This is not helpful.

Saturday, September 01
General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Gallup
Obama 47, Romney 46

General Election: Romney vs. Obama
Rasmussen Reports
Obama 44, Romney 47
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If we don't want the return of Bush/Republican policies everyone needs to vote.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Left Coast2020]

19. Lets not get over confident now.

The scum of repug SOS offices will pull out stops to steal this thing. We have to stop that first before getting giggly over good polls results. Good news today is early voting goes on in Ohio thanks in part to a smart Fed Judge.

[nanabugg]

20. Remember Election 2000. They will do everything in their power to steal the election since

their voter suppression efforts may not work as planned.

[elleng]

21. Ignore Rasmussen.

According to Nate Silver, their methods result in unreliable results.

Everyone needs to vote, certainly.

[davidpdx]

22. To those in the thread yelling landslide

IT'S NOT OVER YET!!!!

(this wasn't meant for the OP, I'm appreciative of his/her information).