House Rating Changes: Five More Races Move Towards Democrats

[brooklynite]

Source: Cook Political Report

Six weeks out, Republican ads aiming to disqualify Democrats early don't appear to be sticking. House polling — both public and private — was already tenuous for the GOP, but has become noticeably more dire since Labor Day. Independent polls in the last two weeks show Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45), Leonard Lance (NJ-07) and Dave Brat (VA-07) trailing. Not long ago, they were in the Lean Republican column.

There are a few notable exceptions. Rep. Andy Barr (KY-06) has erased his deficit, in part thanks to GOP ads hitting Democrat Amy McGrath for bragging at an out-of-state fundraiser that "I am further left than anybody in the state of Kentucky." And, Republicans continue to see better-than-expected numbers in significantly Hispanic districts like California's 39th CD, Florida's 26th and 27th CDs and Texas's 23rd CD.

But both parties are seeing Republicans' numbers continuing to erode in professional suburbs, and some in the GOP fear they still haven't hit "rock bottom." This week, five more districts move towards Democrats. Overall, 13 GOP seats now lean to Democrats and another 29 are Toss Ups. Right now the likeliest outcome is a Democratic gain in the 25 to 40 seat range (Democrats need 23 for a majority). View our full ratings here.

Rating Changes:
CO-06: Mike Coffman (R) - Toss Up to Lean D ←
NY-02: Peter King (R) - Solid R to Likely R ←
NC-13: Ted Budd (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Lean R to Toss Up ←
TX-31: John Carter (R) - Likely R to Lean R ←

Read more: https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/house-rating-changes-five-more-races-move-towards-democrats

[PearliePoo2]

1. "some in the GOP fear they still haven't hit "rock bottom."

May your fucking fears come true!

K&R

[Stuart G]

2. Thank You for posting this..The election will come down to one word, "Trump"

Many Republicans will vote for Democrats for the first time in their lives. It is all about "Trump" and his total incompetence in representing the U.S.A. Now, just for comparison on total incompetence in representing people, and running a campaign...let's look back at 1972. McGovern ran a lousy campaign. He was thought by the general public to be "incompetent." There was a "tank ad", replacement of a VP running mate, some other mistakes that make him look "incompetent." He got about 20 electoral votes compared to Nixon's over 500 ...
........Trump has created the same kind feeling. Not only incompetence, but a constant liar and HUGE BIG MOUTH!!!!! So, I think we will see a similar result in this election. But the Democrats will win as the Republicans won in 72. Yes, because it really is about Trump. But we will all see in about 40 days..I hope I am correct.

[BumRushDaShow]

3. "PA-01: Brian Fitzpatrick (R) - Lean R to Toss Up"

Before the gerrymandering here in PA was thrown out, this was PA-08 and had been a (D) seat after the 2006 blue wave (Patrick Murphy) but was lost in the 2010 teabagger massacre. The lines for this district were generally left intact (primarily Bucks County, an immediate Northern suburb of Philly) except that there was a small shift westward into more bluish Montgomery County. So with enough GOTV, this seat really SHOULD be (D) (close).

[winstars]

4. Peter King gone, that would be sweet!!!

[DBoon]

5. puzzled about this

"And, Republicans continue to see better-than-expected numbers in significantly Hispanic districts like California's 39th CD, Florida's 26th and 27th CDs and Texas's 23rd CD"

Why?