No bounce for Romney in Florida

[highplainsdem]

Source: Public Policy Polling

PPP's newest Florida poll, conducted completely after the Republican convention, finds no change in the Presidential race there. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 48-47, exactly as he did on our last poll of the state five weeks ago.

The Republican convention being held in Tampa appears to have been a wash. 33% of voters say it made them more likely to vote for Republicans, 33% said it made them less likely to vote for Republicans, and 34% said it didn't make a difference to them either way.

Romney did see a slight bump in his favorability numbers. 49% of voters have a positive opinion of him to 47% with a negative one. That +2 spread is up a net 5 points from late July when his breakdown was 46/49.

-snip-

Clint Eastwood's speech may have drawn more attention than anything else that happened at the convention and it didn't go over particularly well with voters. 36% say they have a favorable opinion of his remarks to 41% with a negative opinion. While Eastwood's speech didn't do much to help Romney it doesn't seem to have hurt his own reputation either. 72% of Floridians have a favorable opinion of him to 11% with a negative one and even with Democrats the spread is 58/20. Those are certainly numbers any politician would die for.

-snip-

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/09/no-bounce-for-romney-in-florida.html

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More poll findings:

Romney's favorability rating is worse than any other person who spoke at the RNC in prime time (PPP polled on all of them).

Obama's lead in Florida is due to independents (51-39), non-white voters (63-33), and voters under 45 (54-40). (I'm making a correction of the current PPP report here because there's an obvious typo, with them showing both Obama and Romney ahead with voters over 45. PPP's Twitter feed has the correct information, that Obama leads with voters under 45.) Romney's support comes from whites (54-42) and voters over 45 (53-44).

PPP asked whether Romney should release 12 years of tax returns. 49% thought he should, 41% thought he shouldn't. (IMO, they would have had more people in favor of releasing more tax returns if they hadn't specified 12 years and had instead mentioned a lower number or not specified a number.)

They found, unsurprisingly, that voters in Florida consider Obama a better speaker than Romney, 58-32.

[aaaaaa5a]

1. Question? If Romney doesn't lead in FL now... when does he?

In the last 3 weeks, he has picked his VP and held a stand alone convention. And he still trails!

[mucifer]

2. Yeah, but come November will any of us be allowed to vote?

[elleng]

7. or will our votes be counted? Correctly?

(Not concerned, as I vote in Maryland. Elsewhere, that's another story.)

[tomm2thumbs]

3. The GOP has poisoned their own wells

After spending literally hundreds of millions of dollars in (false) advertising, and trying to get America to swallow a terrible product, the voters are starting to realize that this 'nectar' being spoon-fed to them by the obscenely rich corporate elite is coming from the poisoned groundwater wells, made toxic by the Tea-Bagged Republican Party.

No amount of advertising is going to get people to buy the poisoned 'medicine' of the GOP and have them sprinkle it over their family's future as if it were an April shower.

No amount.

[RT_Fanatic]

4. The sad fact of the matter

for Rmoney is that nobody likes him. He's not the tiniest bit empathetic. He isn't fit to be president and Republicans are pissed off to be stuck with him. They're going to have to hold their noses and vote for him, because they're terrified of having to eat their words when PBO is re-elected and gets down in his second term to the business of finishing what he started, and maybe, just maybe getting another Dem elected in 16. Sane people look at these teabaggers and see how nuts they are. They're out of ideas (not that they ever really had any).

[SunSeeker]

5. In your face, Robme and Lyin Ryan!

[AtheistCrusader]

6. Not even a dead cat bounce. Ouchie.

Ha hah haaaa

[adigal]

8. Old whites support Romney, and they say race has nothing

To do with it. Right.

[djean111]

9. Old white here. Please don't slap me around with that broad brush.

Matter of fact, I live in Florida, and was contacted by PPP, and answered all questions concerning Romney/GOP negatively.
There were also a lot of questions feeling out who I would support in 2016 - Hillary or Elizabeth Warren.
Anyway, since I have a lot of friends and neighbors who are also old and white, I can assure you we all do not think the same.
In fact, with the internet, I am starting to believe dividing us all up by age groups is becoming a bit pointless.
Or slapping people around by state, when their next door neighbor is on the other end of the political spectrum.
Any time I read a sentence that states all old whites or all Floridians or all atheists or whatever, I sort of roll my eyes. I am trying to teach my 17 YO grandson not to do that; I told him it makes his opinions sound immature.

[DonCoquixote]

10. true

Many in Florida hate the creep, it is just that the assholes down here have a megaphone.

[adigal]

12. I think you misunderstood me

I was not saying all old whites are racist. I was saying the ones who hate Obama are racist.i can't claim that those who support Obama are racist, because they are not.

[HockeyMom]

11. Our Space Alien Governor should campaign

for Romney! That would change the polls very quickly!!!!

[Spitfire of ATJ]

13. Who are these 41% that think Romney shouldn't show his taxes?

Is that the anti-tax crowd?

[Odd Won Out]

14. I think I read somewhere that with so few undecideds this election,

that neither party should expect much of a bounce. Obama should get a small bounce, and when compared to Romney, he will end up with a net gain, IMHO.

[jobycom]

15. Basically, this is a different election than past ones.

Two points--one, the lack of changing numbers shows that people already know how they are going to vote. They aren't listening to messages.

Two, elections have changed since 2000. There's a great article floating around explaining how candidates now target very specific audiences, as opposed to the old days when they would target broad regions. The South, for instance, used to be targeted for its conservative, religious, blue-collar, agricultural, and racial voting habits. Now campaigns will target a group of people identified by specific beliefs, or buying practices, or maybe an intertwined mix of factors. Profilers can find people who bought Bibles and Starbucks coffee, for instance, and target a message to them. They can deliver these messages through social media, or even just through public broadcast by tailoring dog whistles to appeal to one group instead of others.

So, when you hear Ryan calling rape another means of conception, he's going after a certain demographic that no longer is defined regionally, and counting on that claim not hurting him with voters he actually has a chance of winning. Both parties do it--the whole corporate-personhood thing is our own dog-whistle, for instance.

So conventions now are meant to fire up the bases with bold position statements and lots of cheerleading, so the base will deliver the cash, that can then be used to target audiences. It also means polls will be less reliable, since the demographic assumptions of the polls may not work.

So while Romney getting no bounce is good in general, it may not matter in a close election.

Here's the article: http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/01/why-campaign-reporters-are-behind-the-curve/