GOP nervous ahead of Kavanaugh vote: "We don't have 50 right now"

[brooklynite]

Source: Axios

Sources involved with Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation are nervous going into today's 10:30 a.m. test vote.

Four senators are undecideds: Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), Susan Collins (R-Maine), Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.).

A senior source involved in the process told me fairly late last night:"We’re going into this vote and we don’t have 50 right now."

"There’s been a lot of work that was done today, by members wading through this material. I don’t want to put my thumb on the scale. Things keep moving — so much, it feels like we’re walking on quicksand. So I don’t even want to say confidence or not confidence."

Read more: https://www.axios.com/gop-nervous-ahead-of-brett-kavanaugh-vote-c8162287-2dc3-4b83-b59c-4f5cbf6fd2d2.html

[Scarsdale]

1. Oh, puleeze!

Does anyone honestly believe Collins would vote "NO"? Give me a break.

[ArizonaLib]

4. When they really want her vote, they get it

There was a vote, I think it was on health care, where she was opposed, opposed, opposed, then voted to kill Obamacare, I believe. I think it was the time McCain voted to 'save' it. At the very last, she voted to kill it along with all the protections for women. She might have been using McCain's 'no' vote as cover. I think she is going to do the right thing. She does not want to vote for him. McConnell is an animal. If he has a way, he will use it. He is not human.

[pangaia]

5. Or Flake, the flake ?

[irresistable]

2. what are you hearing personally?

What about this cherry picking from the supposed "secret" FBI file to question the credibility of Dr. Ford at the 11th hour? I'm sure that Dr. Ford's lawyers will have something to say about this.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

23. Cornyn on KLBJ yesterday, "danced around" calling

Her a liar. To me, trying to make people think FBI proved that and it was in secret report for the low-info's who don't know that she wasn't even interviewed.

[SummerSnow]

3. Those 4 are not undecided. They just don't want to reveal their decisions. They'll vote in his favor

[mn9driver]

22. This is the way it usually goes with close votes.

The GOP “undecided” senators are bullshit. If Kavanaugh fails confirmation due to these tools actually voting against him, it will be a first.

[They_Live]

6. "test vote"?

What the fuck?

[ArizonaLib]

7. They are trying to get the 4 to provide something

so the base can put pressure on whoever holds out. Also, behind the scenes they can threaten, I mean discuss it more with them.

[They_Live]

11. Right.

"We'll keep voting until we get the results that we want."

[BumRushDaShow]

16. It is referencing the "cloture" vote

which doesn't always align with the final vote because some will say they agree to move to the final phase of the confirmation (debate/final vote) and agree that the final phase should not held up due to a filibuster.

[cstanleytech]

8. Dont be fooled they probably have the votes they are just trying to figure a way to polish

a giant piece of shit into a nice red shiny apple so the voters do not vote them out of office.

[ewagner]

15. Agree n/t

[Iliyah]

9. Test vote part of the Colture?

I mean McTurtle and crew aren't even following the rues.

[DownriverDem]

12. It follows the rules.

It's part of the parliamentary procedure and is done all the time. It's a vote to end discussion so that the final vote can be taken. Not always, but most often, the senators who vote yes today will vote yes on Saturday. I'm pretty sure that's how it's done. Then it goes to the full senate for the vote to confirm on Saturday.

[ewagner]

18. A slight ray of hope...

I worked with legislators many years ago...

There is a game that they play called "getting a vote in each pocket"

The can vote "for Kavanaugh" by voting to end debate and then vote against him for confirmation...

they then refer their constituents to the vote to end debate as proof that they voted "for" Kavanaugh and if challenged otherwise they also have a vote "against" Kavanaugh.

Using one procedural vote or another to put a vote "in the other pocket" is common.

[DownriverDem]

10. Montana repub Senator

He won't be there Saturday. His daughter is getting married. He told the turtleman months ago. Let's hope it makes a difference for our side.

[Calista241]

13. I heard he rearranged his flights so he could vote.

[Calista241]

14. I don't believe Collins or Murkowski will vote no

They basically can’t be re-elected without their base conservative support, and McConnell seem certain to force them to cast a vote.

Flake is a wildcard since he’s not running, but all 3 of these Senators were consulted by the White House and all 3 signed off on Kavanaugh. This was before Ford came forward, but still, they’ve already committed to Trump and to McConnell, and for them to back out will be a big step.

The wrath of Trump in the Repub primaries will be terrible to behold.

[catbyte]

17. If Murkowski votes yes she'll be in deep shit. The only way she was re-elected in the

first place was because of the write-in campaign from the Native Alaskan community & they're vehemently opposed to Kavanaugh. She'd better watch her step because she was primaried last time. TrumpCultists despise her.

[TruckFump]

28. Agree.

If she wants to stay in the Senate, she has to vote NO on Kavanaugh.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. Murkowski was a "write-in" candidte so her "base" is not the same as it was before

I.e., Native Alaskan/Aleuts are a big part of her "base" because the GOP already had their own candidate who won the primary. She made a decision to vote (R) and with (R)s (generally) afterwards, but with the caveats of moderation.

[ewagner]

21. Murkoswki is the most likely

to vote against Kavanaugh...

Remember she won against the wishes of the party...one her own...

and

Her native American constituency knows Kavanaugh is against them and have been very, very vocal about it.

But she's only one of the two votes we need.

[MiniMe]

34. Murkowski voted No on cloture

[bluestarone]

19. It's a SHAME there is only 4 undecided votes!!

How can this be? Where are all the rest of these fucking REPUBS????

[Rizen]

24. Remember what happened with Net Neutrality.

A few Senate Republicans flipped on that. It's possible, however unlikely, the rapist won't be confirmed.

[Baclava]

25. This is a procedural vote, not the final vote for confirmation.

Things can still change

[OliverQ]

26. I don't buy it.

They will vote for this guy no matter what. There isn't a shared spine between all 51 of them.

[samnsara]

27. we will vote out or primary ALL those who are up for re election...

..and forever publicly relentlessly shame the rest

[Iliyah]

29. Final vote today at 3:00 p.m.?

Because of Danies?

[Nitram]

30. Got every toe and finger crossed and I'm holding my breath.

[zentrum]

31. I don't believe them.

I think they do have 50.

They are saying this just to highly activate their base---to get donations, anger, demonstrations, turn-out. The Repugs specialize in the tactics of fear and anger.

BTW--what is with the FBI? How did they allow themselves to be so limited without some kind of push-back? Why are they seemingly in on the cover-up?

[Nasruddin]

32. Baloney

Manipulating us suckers in the news feeds to keep the senatorial beauty contest rolling.

[Izzy Blue]

33. BREAKING: Collins a yes today

But she said that doesn't mean a yes for the full senate vote.

[Bayard]

35. Does't this still have to be debated on the full Senate floor?

McTurtle/Grassley/Graham will scream and pound their chests, but a few other Pugs might be turned. Maybe.