Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Economic News Release USDL-18-1586

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 5, 2018

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2018


The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.
....

Household Survey Data

The unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.7 percent in September, and the number of unemployed persons decreased by 270,000 to 6.0 million. Over the year, the unemployment rate and the number of unemployed persons declined by 0.5 percentage point and 795,000, respectively. (See table A-1.)
....

In September, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.4 percent, was little changed. (See table A-1.)
....

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 134,000 in September, compared with an average monthly gain of 201,000 over the prior 12 months. In September, job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 54,000 in September and has risen by 560,000 over the year.

Health care employment rose by 26,000 in September. Hospitals added 12,000 jobs, and employment in ambulatory health care services continued to trend up (+10,000). Over the year, health care employment has increased by 302,000.

In September, employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 24,000. Job gains occurred in warehousing and storage (+8,000) and in couriers and messengers (+5,000). Over the year, employment in transportation and warehousing has increased by 174,000.

Construction employment continued to trend up in September (+23,000). The industry has added 315,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

Employment in manufacturing continued to trend up in September (+18,000), reflecting a gain in durable goods industries. Over the year, manufacturing has added 278,000 jobs, with about four-fifths of the gain in the durable goods component.

Within mining, employment in support activities for mining rose by 6,000 over the month and by 53,000 over the year.
....

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 8 cents to $27.24. Over the year, average hourly earnings have increased by 73 cents, or 2.8 percent. Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 6 cents to $22.81 in September. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up from +147,000 to +165,000, and the change for August was revised up from +201,000 to +270,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 87,000 more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 190,000 per month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 2, 2018, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

---

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

* * * * *

There's a huge amount of useful commentary at this link. It looks as if you can read it even without a subscription.

Everything You Need to Know About the September Jobs Report

Last Updated Oct 5, 2018 at 7:57 am ET

Economists are expecting employers created 180,000 jobs last month and unemployment ticked down to 3.8%.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/september-2018-jobs-report-analysis

-- -- -- --

Last month at DU:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

https://upload.democraticunderground.com/10142152585

[BumRushDaShow]

1. TGIF

And wow - I heard estimates of something like 183,000 to be added and it's 134,000. Oh my.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

2. ADP two days ago was -- what? -- 270,000? {ETA} No; not that high: up by 230,000. NT

[DemocratSinceBirth]

5. Do you have the LFPR number ?

Where do you think 3rd Quarter GDP will come in. I'm following the NY and ATL Fed Nowcasts.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

6. It's in the OP now. I add material throughout the morning.

In September, the labor force participation rate remained at 62.7 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.4 percent, was little changed. (See table A-1.)

Thanks for writing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. So the much vaunted LFPR is where it was in PBO's last month in office...

The number Republicans wanted us to believe was the true unemployment rate.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

11. No, they use some other number. I can't recall where that is, but it comes from one of the tables.

U-something or other. It basically includes houseplants and family pets.

Maybe this is it. (I can't vouch for the accuracy of this site. It was the first thing that came up in a Google search).

Real Unemployment Rate With Calculations

Does the Government Lie About Unemployment?

BY KIMBERLY AMADEO Updated September 07, 2018

The real unemployment rate (U-6) is a broader definition of unemployment than the official unemployment rate (U-3). In August 2018, it was 7.4 percent.

The U-3 is the rate most often reported in the media. In the U-3 rate, the Bureau of Labor Statistics only counts people without jobs who are in the labor force. To remain in the labor force, they must have looked for a job in the last four weeks.

The U-6, or real unemployment rate, includes the underemployed, the marginally attached, and discouraged workers.


For that reason, it is almost double the U-3 report.

Here we go, thanks to Google. This is what you're looking for:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

{I'm not going to copy the table. It will get messed up.}

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force Sept. 2018 7.5%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Maybe it was the employment-population ratio you cited.

According to that number 40% of Americans aren't working. If you follow this kind of stuff as you clearly do you know the economy generally fares better under Democratic administrations than Republican ones. It will be interesting to see the results of Trumponomics. It was clear to me the huge tax cuts would have some stimulative effect but at what cost and for how long ?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

13. progree does those calculations. He'll be along later this morning.

He's the one who turns the crank and does all the thinking. I just cut and paste.

{Edited}

I went back to a report from two years ago. I recalled how he did that.

From September 2016:

Payroll employment increases by 151,000 in August; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%

[font color="red"]These will be (or should be) the talking points:

1) A gain of 151,000 is below Wednesday's estimate by ADP^® of a gain of 177,000 jobs and the similar estimate this morning and yesterday morning in TWSJ. of a gain of 180,000.^1,2,3 ;
2) "In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 3 cents to $25.73. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.4 percent." ;
3) "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +292,000 to +271,000, and the change for July was revised up from +255,000 to +275,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 1,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 232,000 per month." ;
4) "Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.8 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 59.7 percent, were unchanged in August. (See table A-1.)"⁴ ;
5) The civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force went from 94,333,000 in July to 94,391,000 in August, an increase of 58,000.⁵ ;
6) The number of "{persons not in the labor force} who currently want a job" is 5,833,000. Therefore, the percentage of those not in the labor force who want a job now is (5,833,000/94,391,000) times 100%, or 6.2%.⁶ ; and
7) "The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down from +292,000 to +271,000, and the change for July was revised up from +255,000 to +275,000. With these revisions, employment gains in June and July combined were 1,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 232,000 per month."[/font]

So we look at that report's footnotes 5 and 6 and revise them for the September 2018 report:

Go to Table A-1. Employment status of the civilian population by sex and age.

Look at the "Civilian noninstitutional population." Find the lines "Not in labor force" and "Persons who currently want a job."

The civilian noninstitutional population not in the labor force went from 96,290,000 in August to 96,364,000 in September, an increase of 74,000.

Persons who currently want a job went down from 5,389,000 in August to 5,237,000 in September. We put those numbers into the formula in footnote 6:

The number of "{persons not in the labor force} who currently want a job" is 5,237,000. Therefore, the percentage of those not in the labor force who want a job now is (5,237,000/96,364,000) times 100%, or 5.4%.

Check to see if I made an arithmetic error.

HTH.

[progree]

19. Oh, puhleez :-) . Now I feel like I've got to come up with some kind of "thinking" thing....

I guess I'll start off with something that gets some people really pissed off:

Although the 134,000 reported nonfarm payroll jobs gain is pretty tepid, the upward revision of July and August by 87,000 jobs means we have 221,000 more jobs than in the August jobs report that came out a month ago (in early September).

Some months the prior months are revised down and I report that too, and the change from the prior jobs report (like last month when there was a downward revision https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2152667 ). Whether its the Obama or Trump administrations.

From the household survey (where the numbers are super-highly volatile and bounce around like crazy)

# Employed: +420,000 (yes, way way different from the 134,000 payroll jobs numbers)
# Unemployed: -270,000
# Labor Force: +150,000 (this is always the algebraic sum of the Employed + Unemployed)

The unemployed are those without a job who looked for work in the past 4 weeks (it's what goes into the calculation of the headline 3.7% unemployment number which is U-3).

In contrast, the U-6 unemployment rate counts those who have looked for a job within the past 12 months; and also part-time workers who say they want full-time jobs but can't find them (in BLS parlance "part time for economic reasons" ).

U6: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

Another fun number is NILF, Not In the Labor Force. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

Remember when Trump talked about 94 million "jobless Americans" during the campaign? Yup, that's what he was referring to. Well, it actually went up by 74,000 last month. And it's up by 2,000,000 from the inaugural month of January 2017. We now have 96,364,000 "jobless Americans", but he never talks about that anymore.

Of course, the vast majority are full-time students, and voluntarily retired of all ages (including centenarians). As for the NILF people who are NOT voluntarily unemployed, there is NILF, WJ -- "Not In Labor Force, Wants Job" https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

It is 5,237,000 (which is 5.43% of the 96,364,000 NILF number). It is down 152,000 over the past month, and down 482,000 since the inaugural month of January 2017. But there's been a general upturn since this year's low point of 5,096,000 in March 2018.

Anyway, since Trump hung "94 million jobless Americans" around Obama's neck, we can just as well hang "96 million jobless Americans" around Trump's neck. I think it would be a great midterm theme for Democrats to use. I know, I know. While Democrats can stretch and exaggerate a little, we're just not capable of being bald-faced liars like the Rethuglicans.

More on above, including Trump's campaign era "42% unemployment rate" -- https://www.democraticunderground.com/100210153676

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. Here's the calendar for when that will be released.

MarketWatch Economic Calendar

There was a revision last week for the second quarter. Here's what MW has. The formatting gets messed up in the cut and paste. The original is easier to read.

GDP forecasts
DATE REPORT PERIOD FORECAST PREVIOUS
10/26/2018 GDP 3Q 3.0% 4.2% (Q2)
Jan. 2019 GDP 4Q 3.0% 4.2% (Q2)
Jan. 2019 GDP 2018 2.9% 2.2% (2017)

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Yup 230,000.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Links to earlier reports

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:

U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2018:

U.S. Added 213,000 Jobs in June; Unemployment Ticks Up to 4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 177,000 Jobs in June

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2018:

U.S. economy extends its hiring spree, with a better than expected 223,000 new jobs in May

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2018:

U.S. adds 204,000 private-sector jobs in April, ADP report shows

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2018:

Payroll employment edges up by 103,000 in March; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2018:

Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 313,000 in February; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 235,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 200,000 in January; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2018:

U.S. Private Sector Added 234,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 148,000 in December; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2017:

U.S. private sector adds 250,000 jobs in December, biggest rise since March

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 228,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2017:

I didn't get around to it.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2017:

Payroll employment rises by 261,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 4.1%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2017:

ADP says 235,000 private-sector jobs added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2017:

Unemployment rate falls to 4.2% in September; payroll employment changes little (-33,000)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2017:

Companies Add Fewest U.S. Workers in Nearly a Year, ADP Says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2017:

Payroll employment increases by 156,000 in August; unemployment rate changes little (4.4%)

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2017:

Private-sector job growth surges in August with a little Amazon assist, ADP says

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Additional links:

Last edited Fri Oct 5, 2018, 11:29 AM - Edit history (1)

Sometimes you can read articles in The Wall Street Journal. without a subscription, and sometimes you can't. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls to Lowest Level Since 1969

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally adjusted 134,000 in September, the smallest gain in a year

By Eric Morath and Harriet Torry
Oct. 5, 2018 8:32 a.m. ET

WASHINGTON—The unemployment rate fell in September to the lowest level since the Vietnam War while hiring cooled slightly, the latest signs of an extremely tight labor market.

The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from 3.9% in August, the lowest rate since December 1969, the Labor Department said Friday.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose a seasonally...

TO READ THE FULL STORY
SUBSCRIBE
SIGN IN

* * * * *

People often wonder how in the world the BLS comes up with all this information. This article from January 2018 will help explain things:

Monthly Labor Review

JANUARY 2018

The Current Population Survey—tracking unemployment in the United States for over 75 years

For more than three-quarters of a century, the Current Population Survey has been a vital tool for providing information on U.S. unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article highlights major developments in the survey’s history.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) has been conducted for more than three-quarters of a century.1 From the outset, the main purpose of the survey has been to gather information on the employment status of the U.S. population, with an emphasis on the measurement of unemployment. CPS data have been used by policymakers and others to gauge both the degree of labor market weakness during recessions and the strength of the job market in economic expansions. More than 900 monthly reports on national employment and unemployment have been issued since the survey began in March 1940.

The survey also has been used to provide a wealth of information on a wide range of other subjects—some related to the labor market and some unrelated—through supplemental questions to the basic survey instrument. Over the years, supplements to the CPS have been used to collect data on topics ranging from income and worker displacement to tobacco use and participation in the arts.

The main objective of the CPS, however, has always been to measure unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article summarizes some of the major developments in achieving this goal over the past three-quarters of a century.
....

* * * * *

From the BLS Twitter account:

More charts and analysis on the September nonfarm payroll employment numbers http://go.usa.gov/4UqY #JobsReport #BLSdata

Link to tweet

See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz

Link to tweet

* * * * *

We still don't have a BLS commissioner. The acting commissioner has been in that position for, gee, at least 18 months. Here's his statement, which is the fast and dirty thing that the TV news anchors can recite:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

Statement of

William J. Wiatrowski
Acting Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Friday, October 5, 2018


The unemployment rate declined to 3.7 percent in September, and nonfarm payroll employment increased by 134,000. Job gains occurred in professional and business services, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing.

Incorporating revisions for July and August, which increased nonfarm payroll employment by 87,000, monthly job gains have averaged 190,000 over the past 3 months.
....

* * * * *

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts:

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ‎@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

* * * * *

Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

[e-mail]
* * * * *

Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna

Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

* * * * *

Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

[e-mail]

I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. [e-mail]

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

* * * * *

Sarah Chaney: ‎@sechaney
https://twitter.com/sechaney

Economy Reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Tar Heel. [e-mail]

* * * * *

[RussBLib]

9. Trump loudly said these figures we're BS during his campaign

But then of course they became legit as president.

Since Trump lies about everything and corrupts everything he touches, why should we believe the numbers now?

[mahatmakanejeeves]

14. The mind-numbing rant, based on a version posted on the first Friday in September 2016:

Last edited Fri Oct 5, 2018, 02:37 PM - Edit history (1)

I used to run this every month in the commentary in the zeroeth post. It explains just about every aspect of the monthly report.

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.


[center]Introduction[/center]

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. You're paying for this information too, so I am absolutely delighted to have you participate in this thread. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

Full disclosure: I do not work for BLS, nor am I friends with anyone over there. I'm just someone who appreciates the work they do. My sole connection with the agency is that I've been in the building to pick up some publications.

Thank you for being a part of this thread.

If you don't have the time to study the report thoroughly, here is the news in a nutshell:

Commissioner's Statement on The Employment Situation

It is easy to find one paragraph, or one sentence, or one datum in this report that will support the most outlandish of conclusions, from "the sky is falling" to "we'll have blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on." Easy, but disingenuous.

Every month, you can find something in the report that will cause you concern. Take the information in context. Consider not just this month’s data, but the trend.

Please take the time to look at progree's not-to-be-missed thread containing his thoughtful analysis, updated monthly. Here is the latest version:

Economic Statistics with links to official sources, data rev 2/2/18

Thank you so much for that, progree.

Let's begin with a couple of questions:


[center]What Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics?
Why Does It Release All These Numbers Every Month?[/center]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS is a governmental statistical agency that collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the Department of Labor, and conducts research into how much families need to earn to be able to enjoy a decent standard of living.

The BLS data must satisfy a number of criteria, including relevance to current social and economic issues, timeliness in reflecting today’s rapidly changing economic conditions, accuracy and consistently high statistical quality, and impartiality in both subject matter and presentation. To avoid the appearance of partiality, the dates of major data releases are scheduled more than a year in advance, in coordination with the Office of Management and Budget.

[font color="red"]New material, added August 29, 2016:[/font] Print title, Washington Post, Saturday, March 10, 2012, front page, above the fold: "Watching the clock: Monthly data release is an economic, political obsession timed to the nanosecond"

‘Jobs Day’: Monthly release of employment data an economic, political obsession

By Eli Saslow
http://twitter.com/elisaslow

March 9, 2012

The release of employment numbers by the Bureau of Labor Statistics has long been a ritual in Washington, but lately it has turned into an obsession during an election year defined by economic instability. Once each month, a nondescript government agency compiles and releases 24 tables of economic data that have come to define the 2012 election and so much else. Republican presidential candidates turn the numbers into speeches. The president’s staff monitors how they affect his approval rating. The Federal Reserve reevaluates interest rates. Investors prepare for the stock market to rise or fall, sometimes swinging in value by $150 billion in the minutes after the report is released.
....

The raw data had arrived at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), like always, on Wednesday the week before the report’s release: millions of characters representing survey information from 55,000 households; and then, a few days later, monthly payroll data from 486,000 businesses. Kosanovich’s boss posted a two-page schedule on the office wall, detailing the tasks ahead for a team of more than 20 economists. They would be required to make a series of six deadlines. Their work would undergo 15 fact checks and then 15 clearance reviews. They would sit together in a windowless conference room and read aloud from their eventual creation, a three-page news release and 24 data tables, debating commas and verbs for hours on end.

They would do it all with absolute discretion during an eight-day security lockdown, signing confidentiality agreements each morning, encrypting their computers and locking data into a safe every time they walked 10 yards away to use a bathroom. “Is your workstation secure?” asked a sign in the hallway. They all remembered the last security miscue, in November 2008 — the accidental transmission of some data to one wire service a full 25 seconds before the report’s scheduled release, an incident that had necessitated a series of internal investigations and revisions.

“We always tape paper over the windows of the conference room or draw the shades,” Kosanovich said about her typical routine during a lockdown. She made a habit of refraining from answering phone calls or e-mails from unknown numbers and never discussing data outside her office. For eight days, nobody visited her team’s floor at BLS without a security clearance. The custodial staff did not empty their trash until the report was released.
....

[center]Household Survey vs. Establishment Survey[/center]

From the February 10, 2011, DOL Newsletter:

Take Three

Secretary Solis answers three questions about how the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates unemployment rates.

How does BLS determine the unemployment rate and the number of jobs that were added each month?

BLS uses two different surveys to get these numbers. The household survey, or Current Population Survey (CPS), involves asking people, from about 60,000 households, a series of questions to assess each person in the household's activities including work and searching for work. Their responses give us the unemployment rate. The establishment survey, or Current Employment Statistics (CES), surveys 140,000 employers about how many people they have on their payrolls. These results determine the number of jobs being added or lost.

[font color="red"]New material, added March 9, 2018:[/font]

People often wonder how in the world the BLS comes up with all this information. This article from two months ago will help explain things:

Monthly Labor Review

JANUARY 2018

The Current Population Survey—tracking unemployment in the United States for over 75 years

For more than three-quarters of a century, the Current Population Survey has been a vital tool for providing information on U.S. unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article highlights major developments in the survey’s history.

The Current Population Survey (CPS) has been conducted for more than three-quarters of a century.1 From the outset, the main purpose of the survey has been to gather information on the employment status of the U.S. population, with an emphasis on the measurement of unemployment. CPS data have been used by policymakers and others to gauge both the degree of labor market weakness during recessions and the strength of the job market in economic expansions. More than 900 monthly reports on national employment and unemployment have been issued since the survey began in March 1940.

The survey also has been used to provide a wealth of information on a wide range of other subjects—some related to the labor market and some unrelated—through supplemental questions to the basic survey instrument. Over the years, supplements to the CPS have been used to collect data on topics ranging from income and worker displacement to tobacco use and participation in the arts.

The main objective of the CPS, however, has always been to measure unemployment and other aspects of labor market performance. This article summarizes some of the major developments in achieving this goal over the past three-quarters of a century.
....

[center]Complaint Department[/center]

I post this information on a nonpartisan basis. I am not here to make elected officials of any party or persuasion look good. I am certain that the people who compile these data are of the same outlook. They are civil servants. They do not work for a party; they work for you, the American people.

My only contribution is to cut and paste a few paragraphs from the BLS and then, in the commentary, link to some sources that I feel are trustworthy. I hope people come away with a better understanding of the data after reading this thread. Once again, I do not work for BLS, but I will nonetheless try to assist if I can.

If you feel the Bureau of Labor Statistics is handing out bunk, start here:

Point of Contact for Complaints Concerning Information Quality

Affected persons who believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has disseminated information that does not meet its guidelines or those of the Department of Labor or Office of Management and Budget, and who wish to file a formal complaint may send their complaint by mail, e-mail, or fax to:

Division of Management Systems
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, N.E., Room 4080
Washington, D.C., 20212-0001
E-mail: [e-mail]
Fax: [phone]

Complainants should:

Identify themselves and indicate where and how they can be reached;
Identify, as specifically as possible, the information in question;
Indicate how they are affected by the information about which they are complaining;
Carefully describe the nature of the complaint, including an explanation of why they believe the information does not comply with OMB, Departmental, or agency-specific guidelines; and
Describe the change requested and the reason why the agency should make the change.

Failure to include this information may result in a complainant not receiving a response to the complaint or greatly reducing the usefulness or timeliness of any response. Complainants should be aware that they bear the burden of establishing that they are affected persons and showing the need and justification for the correction they are seeking, including why the information being complained about does not comply with applicable guidelines.

[center]How Do You Define Unemployment?
The Large Print Giveth, and the Fine Print Taketh Away.[/center]

Long ago, a DUer pointed out that, if I'm going to post the link to the press release, I should include the link to all the tables that provide additional ways of examining the data. Specifically, I should post a link to Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization. Table A-15 includes those who are not considered unemployed, on the grounds that they have become discouraged about the prospects of finding a job and have given up looking. Here is that link:

Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Also, hat tip, Recursion: How the Government Measures Unemployment


[center]What About Employment on Farms?[/center]

[font color="red"]New material, added May 4, 2018:[/font]

Note that the BLS measures only "nonfarm payroll employment."

Nonfarm payrolls

I'm hoping the following link goes to an impartial site:

What is 'Nonfarm Payroll'

So who measures employment on farms? Hmmmmmm....

United States Department of Agriculture
Economic Research Service

Farm Labor

ERS provides information on a range of farm labor issues, including:

• Size and composition of the U.S. agricultural workforce (self-employed versus hired)

• Recent trends in the employment of hired farmworkers

• Demographic characteristics of hired farmworkers, including age, sex, and nativity

• Geographic distribution of hired farmworkers (all occupations)

• Wages of hired farmworkers

• Labor cost share of total gross revenues

• H-2A temporary agricultural visa program

• Adverse Effect Wage Rate (AEWR)

• Legal status and migration practices of hired crop farmworkers

Finally, we provide links to key data sources with summaries.

[font color="red"]New material, added August 8, 2016:[/font]

This appeared at the top of page A2 in the Wednesday, July 27, 2016, print edition of The Wall Street Journal. as "Jobless Picture is Open to Interpretation."

Jobless Picture is Open to Interpretation

Gauges used to measure unemployment vary in how they define who is out of work {print: "Political campaigns clash over different ways of measuring unemployment"}



By Josh Zumbrun
[e-mail]
@JoshZumbrun

July 26, 2016 7:56 p.m. ET

Because political campaigns can rise and fall on the health of the economy, spats often flare over the gauges used to measure growth and unemployment.

The latest dust-up, raised by the campaign of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, focuses on the monthly employment numbers. A long streak of hiring has nudged the jobless rate down to 4.9%. ... Donald Trump Jr., the nominee’s son, recently criticized the official statistics as “artificial numbers…massaged to make the existing economy look good.”

The nominee himself has said unemployment is far higher than the Labor Department’s headline 4.9% rate would suggest, part of his message that the economy is in a dire state. After he won the New Hampshire primary in February, Mr. Trump called the official jobless figures “phony” and said the real number could be as high as 42%.

This isn’t the first time people have cast aspersions on the jobs numbers in an election year, but the Trump claim is also part of a larger discussion over how best to assess the health of the labor market.

The following link to Barron's might not work for everyone. See progree's tips.[/font] From the July 20, 2015, issue of Barron's:

Refresher Course: Inside the Jobless Numbers

Are we undercounting the unemployment numbers—or overcounting? How the BLS gathers and calculates the numbers, and why it matters.

By Gene Epstein
July 18, 2015

The unemployment rate has never been the object of as much attention from the markets and the media as it is now, sparked by the keen interest taken in its monthly fluctuations by policy makers at the Federal Reserve.

Despite the heightened focus, there are a lot of misunderstandings and misconceptions about how the rate is calculated. Some people assume the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles the rate from the unemployment-insurance rolls. On that basis, they fault the BLS for undercounting the unemployed. But that’s just one myth among many about this cornerstone measure of economic pain and labor-market slack.

To estimate the unemployment rate, the BLS actually relies on the monthly Current Population Survey conducted for it by the Census Bureau. While the data are highly imperfect in their own way, we think the Federal Reserve is right to view the official unemployment rate as the best available information, while also keeping its eye on ancillary measures of “labor underutilization.”

In fact, a close look at BLS methods suggests that, if anything, the official unemployment rate may be overcounting rather than undercounting the unemployed.

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] In August 2015, DUers whatthehey and progree got into a 1995 report from economists John E. Bregger and Steven E. Haugen. The .pdf is unfortunately an image and thus challenging as a source of quotes. Trying to find it in a format that does make for easy copying, I was led to this:

Alternative Unemployment Rates: Their Meaning and Their Measure March 12, 2014


[center]Why Won't You Talk About the Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)?[/center]

Every month in certain circles, someone will cite the labor force participation rate as a cause for concern. Let's look at that right now.

[font color="red"]New material, added September 30, 2016:[/font]

September 2016

Labor force participation: what has happened since the peak?

The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is working or actively looking for work. It is an important labor market measure because it represents the relative amount of labor resources available for the production of goods and services. After rising for more than three decades, the overall labor force participation rate peaked in early 2000 and subsequently trended down. In recent years, the movement of the baby-boom population into age groups that generally exhibit low labor force participation has contributed to the decline in the overall participation rate. From 2000 to 2015, most of the major demographic groups saw a decrease in labor force participation. Teenagers experienced the largest drop in participation, which coincided with a rise in their school enrollment rate. Young adults 20 to 24 years also showed a decline in labor force participation, but the decrease was not as steep as that for teenagers. The labor force participation rate of women 25 to 54 years also fell, with the decrease more pronounced for women who did not attend college. The labor force participation rate of men 25 to 54 years continued its long-term decline. As in the past, the decrease in participation among men with less education was greater than that of men with more education. However, labor force participation rates of men and women 55 years and older rose from 2000 to 2009 and subsequently leveled off.

[font color="red"]New material, added July 31, 2016:[/font]

Title in the print edition of the Washington Post, page A17, Wednesday, July 27, 2016: "The unemployment-rate 'conspiracy' that isn't"

A popular conspiracy theory is spreading in the Trump family. It’s totally false.

By Matt O'Brien July 26
[e-mail]
@ObsoleteDogma

The unemployment rate is not a conspiracy. It is not manipulated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And anyone who suggests otherwise is either uninformed, or trying to misinform others.

Which is to say that you shouldn't listen to Donald Trump & Co. For a year now, the alleged billionaire has insisted that the "real" unemployment rate is something like 42 percent instead of the 4.9 percent it actually is. He hasn't said how he's gotten this — maybe it's from the same "extremely credible source" who told him President Obama's birth certificate was fake? (1) — but the simplest explanation is that he's just ballparking how many adults don't work. That's 40.4 percent right now. The problem with using that number, though, is that it counts college students and stay-at-home parents and retirees as being equally "unemployed" as people who are actively looking for work but can't find any. So it doesn't tell us too much, at least not on its own, unless you think it's a problem that we have more 70-year-olds than we used to.

(1)

Link to tweet

Or unless conspiracy theories are one of your favorite accessories, as seems to be the case with the father, and now the son, Donald Trump Jr. On Sunday, he told CNN's Jake Tapper that the official unemployment numbers are "artificial" ones that are "massaged to make the existing economy look good" and "this administration look good."
....



Source: BLS

....
The boring truth is that the economy is in a lot better shape than it was when Obama took office, but that it could be in better shape still. The recovery, in other words, still has a ways to go. But that's a lot different from saying that we have 40 percent unemployment and that the government is trying to cover it up. That just suggests you don't understand — or don't want to accurately describe — how stats work and you don't know how to look up the ones you think the BLS is hiding. ... It's not what you'd expect from a major party presidential candidate.

[font color="red"]New material, added June 27, 2016:[/font]

Wonkblog

[link:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/06/20/why-americas-men-arent-working/|
Why America’s men aren’t working]

By Ylan Q. Mui June 20

The national unemployment rate has fallen by more than half since the nation emerged from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. It peaked at 10 percent in 2010 and stood at just 4.7 percent last month.

That’s mostly good news: Private employers have added more than 14 million jobs. About 2 million people have been out of a job for six months or longer, far too many but only about a quarter of the number of long-term unemployed people seven years ago. By almost every measure, the labor market has made incredible progress.

But there’s one statistic that has been vexing economists. The size of the nation’s workforce -- known as the labor force participation rate -- continues to fall. Since the start of the downturn, the percentage of that population that has a job or is looking for one has dropped more than 3 percentage points, to 62.6 percent, a level not seen since the 1970s.

{America’s jobs market has had a great 2016. Will it last?}

The problem is particularly pronounced among men between the ages of 25 and 54, traditionally considered the prime working years. Their participation rate has been declining for decades, but the drop-off accelerated during the recession. The high mark was 98 percent in 1954, and it now stands at 88 percent. A new analysis from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers, slated for release Monday, found that the United States now has the third-lowest participation rate for “prime-age men” among the world’s developed countries.
....



....
People in prison are not counted as part of the population for the purposes of labor market statistics. At first blush, that would actually boost the participation rate: A smaller population means the share in the workforce is larger. But in reality, there are immense and well-documented barriers to the job market for workers once they leave prison. And the gloomy prospects of the formerly incarcerated outweigh the statistical benefit of having a large prison population.



....
Ylan Q. Mui is a financial reporter at The Washington Post covering the Federal Reserve and the economy. Follow @ylanmui

[font color="red"]New material, added January 2016:[/font] People who are not in the labor force: why aren't they working?

Beyond the Numbers

December 2015 | Vol. 4 / No. 15

EMPLOYMENT & UNEMPLOYMENT

People who are not in the labor force: why aren't they working?

By Steven F. Hipple

People who are neither working nor looking for work are counted as “not in the labor force,” according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since 2000, the percentage of people in this group has increased. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) provide some insight into why people are not in the labor force. The ASEC is conducted in the months of February through April and includes questions about work and other activities in the previous calendar year. For example, data collected in 2015 are for the 2014 calendar year, and data collected in 2005 are for the 2004 calendar year.1 In the ASEC, people who did not work at all in the previous year are asked to give the main reason they did not work. Interviewers categorize survey participants’ verbatim responses into the following categories: ill health or disabled; retired;2 home responsibilities; going to school; could not find work;3 and other reasons.

This Beyond the Numbers article examines data on those who were not in the labor force during 2004 and 2014 and the reasons they gave for not working. The data are limited to people who neither worked nor looked for work during the previous year.

This July 2014 report from the Council of Economic Advisers addresses the LFPR:

THE LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE SINCE 2007: CAUSES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

(Hat tip, Adrahil: Look deeper.)

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] Here's a Power Point (or equivalent) presentation given by Jason Furman, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, before the National Press Club on August 6, 2015. If you go to the next-to-the-last slide, you'll see that the long-term projected trend is down:

"Trends in Labor Force Participation", 8/6/15

(Hat tip, progree: Over the past month, over the past year, and since February 2010)

[font color="red"]New material:[/font] Paul Vigna had a comment about the LFPR in the December 4, 2015, MoneyBeat column about the November figures:

8:55 am

Breaking down the participation rate
by Paul Vigna

Here’s what we mean when we talk about the participation rate and employment-population ratio.

There are 251.7 million people in the “civilian noninstitutional population,” according to the BLS (this is all contained in this chart). This is the number of people over age 16 who are not in jail or health-care facilities or the military.

Of that group, 157.3 million comprise the civilian labor force. The ratio of the second group to the first is 62.5%. This is the labor force participation rate, the number of people who could be in the labor force – either working or looking for a job – who are in the labor force.

There are 149.3 million people working. The ratio of that group to the overall civilian population is 59.3%. This the employment-population ratio, the number of people who could be working who actually are working.

Why do these number matter? Well, if you just looked at the raw data, you’d see the numbers rising, more or less, month after month. That’s not because the economy’s so rip-roaring, but because the number of people in the nation keeps rising. So you need the ratios to get a sense of how strong the labor force really is.

The labor-force participation rate remains near multi-decade lows, and whether that’s due to demographics, as in people retiring, or weak job opportunities, or whatever, it points to one sort of unavoidable problem: the economy cannot grow at its full potential if you simply don’t have enough people contributing.

Oh, and for the record, there are 94.4 million people not in the labor force.

[font color="red"]New material, added December 2015:[/font]

3:12 pm ET
Dec 8, 2015
economics

As America’s Workforce Ages, Here’s Where the Jobs Will Be

By Jeffrey Sparshott

[e-mail]
@jeffsparshott

The U.S. labor force is expected to expand only slowly over the coming decade as the country ages and more Americans give up on holding a job, a potential drag on broader economic growth.

The economy is expected to generate 9.8 million new jobs, a 6.5% increase, from 2014 to 2024, the Labor Department said in new projections released Tuesday. While steady, that is a historically slow pace. By comparison, 10-year job creation averaged almost 14% during the 2001-07 expansion and close to 17% during the 1990s.

The slowdown highlights declining participation as baby boomers retire and younger Americans opt out of the workforce. Those two trends are expected to continue to push the labor-force participation rate lower, to 60.9% in 2024 from 62.9% in 2014, Labor estimates. If realized, that would be the lowest level since 1973, when Richard Nixon was president.

Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen at a congressional hearing last week held out hope the participation rate would hold near current levels as people came off the sidelines and into jobs.

[center]Nattering Nabobs of Negativism[/center]

[font color="red"]New material, added February 26, 2016:[/font] More High-Wage Employment Doesn't Mean the Job Market's Out of the Woods

That's the print edition title.

Wonkblog

The recovery is generating more high-wage jobs — but does that matter?

The U.S. is still digging out of a big hole, and isn't creating new opportunities for those whose jobs disappeared.

By Lydia DePillis February 24

@lydiadepillis

A couple of weeks ago, some economists from Goldman Sachs came out with a rosy pronouncement: "Millions of new jobs and plenty of good ones," read the headline on a note to investors. High-wage employment appeared to pick up from 2013 to the present, a change from the early years of the economic recovery, which generated a disproportionate number of low-wage jobs.



And you don’t have to just take it from an investment bank. The Department of Labor has run its own numbers, and saw similar growth back in October, rendered in absolute numbers rather than growth rates (which Labor’s Chief Economist Heidi Shierholz says held through the end of 2015 in an analysis the department completed last week).

The green bars in the graph below show changes in actual employment, and the orange line shows what it would have been if the growth had been evenly distributed. Shierholz says the loss of low-wage jobs is likely a result of workers in those categories having their wages bumped up above $10 an hour, as the huge growth in low-wage sectors from 2009-2013 led to competition for people in restaurants and retail, or finding better jobs.



That renewed growth in high-wage jobs, which started to show up in 2014, is typical of recoveries from recessions: Low-wage retail and restaurant jobs come back first, as consumers start to buy small-ticket items and go out to eat again. Later on, the profitability trickles up, leading firms to make more expensive hires. Overall, the trend could be responsible for the small uptick in wages that's become evident in recent months, as well.

[font color="red"]Revised material:[/font] Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back

Wonkblog

By Max Ehrenfreund September 12 {2014}

A paper by Federal Reserve staff that will be discussed at the Brookings Institution on Friday {September 12, 2014} possibly hints at the central bank's thinking on interest rates and employment in advance of a consequential Fed meeting next week. The findings support [links:http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-minutes-rate-hike-debate-heating-up-1408557628|hawks] on the Federal Open Market Committee, who feel that the Fed needs to prepare to raise rates sooner than expected, although the results are still being debated and might not persuade the committee's more dovish members.

The paper discusses the number of people who consider themselves part of the workforce -- including both people who have a job and those who are looking for work. It is a measure of the total manpower available in the U.S. economy. This number, the labor force participation rate, has been decreasing steadily since 2000. Americans who can't find work have been leaving the workforce, as have more and more retirees as the population ages.

Let’s follow that with another grim thought:

Why wage growth disparity tells the story of America's half-formed economic recovery

By Chico Harlan November 21, 2014

[e-mail]
@chicoharlan

....
With unemployment down to 5.8 percent, the country’s half-formed recovery is often described with a convenient shorthand: We have jobs but little wage growth. But stagnancy is just an average, and for many Americans, the years since the financial crisis have pushed them farther from the line, according to a detailed analysis of government labor statistics by The Washington Post.
....

Among the winners in this climate: Older workers, women and those with finance and technology jobs. ... Among the losers: Part-timers, the young, men, and those in the health, retail and food industries.
....

Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate

David Leonhardt
AUG. 26, 2014

The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Both Republican and Democratic economists dismissed those charges as silly.

But to call the people who compile the jobs report honest, nonpartisan civil servants is not to say that the jobs report is perfect. The report tries to estimate employment in a big country – and to do so quickly, to give policy makers, business executives and everyone else a sense of how the economy is performing. It’s a tough task.

And it has become tougher, because Americans are less willing to respond to surveys than they used to be.

A new academic paper suggests that the unemployment rate appears to have become less accurate over the last two decades, in part because of this rise in nonresponse. In particular, there seems to have been an increase in the number of people who once would have qualified as officially unemployed and today are considered out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for work.

[font color="red"]New material, added January 2016:[/font] From July 2013:

Mort Zuckerman: A Jobless Recovery Is a Phony Recovery

Commentary

Mort Zuckerman: A Jobless Recovery Is a Phony Recovery

More people have left the workforce than got a new job during the recovery—by a factor of nearly three.

By Mortimer Zuckerman
July 15, 2013 7:09 p.m. ET

In recent months, Americans have heard reports out of Washington and in the media that the economy is looking up—that recovery from the Great Recession is gathering steam. If only it were true. The longest and worst recession since the end of World War II has been marked by the weakest recovery from any U.S. recession in that same period.

The jobless nature of the recovery is particularly unsettling. In June, the government's Household Survey reported that since the start of the year, the number of people with jobs increased by 753,000—but there are jobs and then there are "jobs." No fewer than 557,000 of these positions were only part-time. The survey also reported that in June full-time jobs declined by 240,000, while part-time jobs soared by 360,000 and have now reached an all-time high of 28,059,000—three million more part-time positions than when the recession began at the end of 2007.

That's just for starters. The survey includes part-time workers who want full-time work but can't get it, as well as those who want to work but have stopped looking. That puts the real unemployment rate for June at 14.3%, up from 13.8% in May.

The 7.6% unemployment figure so common in headlines these days is utterly misleading. An estimated 22 million Americans are unemployed or underemployed; they are virtually invisible and mostly excluded from unemployment calculations that garner headlines.
....

Mr. Zuckerman is chairman and editor in chief of U.S. News & World Report.

[center]On the Road Again[/center]

The DOL Newsletter - October 6, 2011

DOL Data: There's an App for That
Have an iPhone, iPod Touch or Android phone? Now you can access the latest labor data and news from the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration in the palm of your hand. The latest free mobile app displays real-time updates to the unemployment rate, Unemployment Insurance initial claims, the Consumer Price Index, payroll employment, average hourly earnings, the Producer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index, productivity, the U.S. Import Price Index and the U.S. Export Price Index in real time, as they are published each week, month or quarter. News releases providing context for the data can also be accessed through the app and viewed within a mobile browser or as PDF documents.

US Labor Department launches economic and employment statistics app

Smartphone users gain mobile access to latest labor data and news

WASHINGTON — The most up-to-date employment data and economic news releases from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and its Employment and Training Administration now can be viewed using a new mobile application.
....

The new app is currently available for the iPhone and iPod Touch as well as Android phones. The Labor Department is working to develop versions for BlackBerry and iPad devices. Visit https://m.dol.gov/apps/ to download this and other mobile apps.

Download the Data, Other Mobile Apps


[center]A Few More Things[/center]

[font color="red"]New material, added July 8, 2017:[/font]

The power of the president over the economy is limited

By Ezra Klein January 13, 2012

....
But it would be even better if voters had a consistent benchmark for judging a president’s performance. The question — and it’s a tough one — is how to separate the very real influence the president has on the economy from the myriad other factors that weigh on whether consumers spend and businesses hire. So I put the issue to an exclusive club of economists who have an unusually fine-grained understanding of what the president can and can’t do: the former chairs of the president’s Council of Economic Advisers. And I asked each the same question: How much of national job creation during a presidency can we properly attribute to the president?

“Very little,” wrote Harvard’s Martin Feldstein in an e-mail. Feldstein led the CEA under Reagan, and he didn’t see much role for the president in normal economic times. “The key is growth of population and labor force participation. Policy — primarily monetary policy — affects cyclical conditions and therefore the unemployment rate. Fiscal policy is usually irrelevant but with interest rates at the current level there has been a role for fiscal policy.”

Laura D’Andrea Tyson, a Berkeley economist who served under President Clinton, emphasized the need to consider timing in our evaluations. “There are significant lags between the time a President proposes a policy, the time it is enacted by Congress and the time necessary for it to take effect,” she wrote to me. “These lags should be taken into account in measuring the economy’s job performance under a President. The first year probably should not count at all in terms of assessing the effects of a new Administration’s policies.”

Greg Mankiw, a Harvard economist who served as CEA chair under George W. Bush, directed me to a blog post he had written on the subject. “Randomness is a fact of economic life,” Mankiw wrote, “and it would be a mistake to judge a president by the economic outcome during his administration. It is better to look at the decisions the president made, and to acknowledge that the outcome is a function of those decisions and many other factors not under his control. As an economist, I have views about what best practices are for economic policy, and I judge presidents by how closely they adhere to those principles.” ... “Unfortunately,” he concluded, “that evaluation process is not quite as simple and objective as the reader might have hoped for. But I don’t think there is a better alternative.”
....

[e-mail]
https://twitter.com/ezraklein

[font color="red"]New material, added February 4, 2016:[/font] This article appeared as "Stocks vs. the Economy: Which Ruins Which?"on page C2 of the print edition of The Wall Street Journal. on Tuesday, February 2, 2016.

Does the Economy Ruin the Stock Market or Does the Stock Market Ruin the Economy?

2:49 pm ET
Feb 1, 2016
Markets

By John Carney

Don’t confuse the market for the economy. Markets have overshot fundamentals. There are no signs of contagion into the real economy. ... Anyone paying attention has heard some version of these sentiments lately. Paul Samuelson’s famous quip that the market has predicted nine of the past five recessions is once again on the lips of the wise men and women of Wall Street.

But what if the stock market is more than just an indicator? What if a stock selloff can actually cause unemployment and recessions? ... That’s exactly what historical data on the stock market and the unemployment rate running back to 1929 seem to suggest. A persistent 10% decline in the stock market pushes unemployment up three percentage points.

That, at least, is the finding of University of California Los Angeles economist Roger Farmer. Currently a Distinguished Professor of Economics at UCLA and a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Mr. Farmer has been a fellow at the Bank of England and has won awards for his work on inefficiency in financial markets and self-fullfilling prophecies.

In a pair of academic papers written in the wake of the financial crisis, the first published in 2012 and the second published this year, Mr. Farmer has argued that changes in the value of the stock market cause changes in the unemployment rate. The idea will be expanded upon in Mr. Farmer’s forthcoming book, Prosperity for All.

[font color="red"]Moved here, February 6, 2016:[/font] The Federal Reserve looks at, among many other things, the BLS employment reports when it decides what to do with "the interest rate." The interest rate in question is the federal funds target rate. Here is some information about that:

Federal funds rate

The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

Storyline ⋅ Meet the wonks

By Todd C. Frankel August 1, 2014

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

(Note new link for Jobs Calculator™. Hat tip, progree.)

Monthly Employment Reports from BLS

The U.S. Department of Commerce releases economic data too. Some of its releases come from the U.S. Census Bureau:

U.S. Census Bureau Latest News

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators

Other Department of Commerce releases come from the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

Bureau of Economic Analysis

For people who need a daily fix:

BLS-Labor Statistics Twitter feed

Read tomorrow's news before it happens. Here's the schedule for all economic reports:

MarketWatch Economic Calendar

and for BLS reports only:

Bureau of Labor Statistics Release Calendar

[aaaaaa5a]

15. Thank you President Obama.

Your Presidency saved us from a Great Depression and lifted the country into an ecomomic success.

[still_one]

18. absolutely, but for the most part the trump/republican propaganda will overshadow the facts

They did the same thing after the 87 crash under Reagan which was a direct result of deregulation, S&L crisis, etc, and the same nonesense will be perpetrated again, and when everything hits the fan, the same forgetful memories will come out of the woodwork

[treestar]

21. What I was going to say

Thanks Obama!

Let's see what happens when the Orange Bloviator's tax cuts and tariffs have sunk in

[mahatmakanejeeves]

16. Analysis and charts at The Wall Street Journal. and from their reporters.

Last edited Fri Oct 5, 2018, 11:16 AM - Edit history (3)

Articles at The Wall Street Journal. usually require a subscription. Maybe you can see them.

The September Jobs Report in 9 Charts

By Josh Zumbrun
http://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun
[e-mail]
Oct 5, 2018 9:19 am ET

U.S. employers added 134,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since 1969 in September. The total number of nonfarm payroll jobs rose by 1.7% over the past year, a pace that’s been little changed over the past two years. Weekly wages increased about 3.4% while hourly wages are up about 2.8% […]

REAL TIME ECONOMICS | EMPLOYMENT

5 Things to Watch in the September Jobs Report

Economists expect employers added 180,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%

By Eric Morath
http://twitter.com/EricMorath
[e-mail]
Oct 4, 2018 11:58 am ET

The Labor Department releases its broadest look at the U.S. job market for September on Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect employers added 180,000 jobs during the month and see the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8%. Here are five things to watch in the report. 1. Weather Effect? Don’t expect Hurricane […]

Sarah Chaney Retweeted:

One reason blue-collar wages have started rising faster than white-collar: The blue-collar labor force is shrinking.
https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/10/05/real-time-economics-why-employers-cant-find-blue-collar-workers-trumps-new-trade-template-the-fed-is-independent/ …

Link to tweet

[elmac]

17. Lots of McTacoKing manufacturing jobs out there, this is Yuge, very Yuge and biggly!nt

[mahatmakanejeeves]

20. Popehat has it figured out.

Yeah but what you have to understand is that most of those new jobs are for paid elevator protestors

Link to tweet

[progree]

22. MSM chorus: Unemployment rate at a 49 year low

Google news search

Just to pick one example:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/september-jobs-report-shows-unemployment-49-year-low-2018-10-05/

Official unemployment rate (U-3) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

I hate posting this, but people should be prepared because it is all over the news. If some fuckhead at the bar makes an enormous hoohah about this, ask him/her about the 96 million "jobless Americans" not in the labor force who aren't being counted as unemployed -- an increase of 2 million from the inaugural month of January 2017. And up by 74,000 over just the last month. It isn't a totally honest comeback (only about 5.4% of them say they want a job, although that's still 5 million people), but Trump used that in his campaign (back then it was "94 million jobless Americans" ). Now it's our turn.

Details in this thread, #19

[Bengus81]

23. And on our local news about stagnant wages STILL going on for 10+ years.....

Gosh,with all these fantastic Trump jobs you'd think poor old Mikey D's would have to start paying $9.00+ just to get someone in the door. Not happening here,still $7.25 out on the sign.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

24. Why have blue-collar wages started rising faster? The blue-collar labor force is shrinking.

Sarah Chaney Retweeted:

One reason blue-collar wages have started rising faster than white-collar: The blue-collar labor force is shrinking.
https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2018/10/05/real-time-economics-why-employers-cant-find-blue-collar-workers-trumps-new-trade-template-the-fed-is-independent/ …

Link to tweet

The story is behind their paywall.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

25. K&R. Thanks for all your hard work with this data, Jeeves!

........... ..........

[mahatmakanejeeves]

26. I enjoy the living daylights out of doing this. It makes my month.

There were a few times over the last couple of months when I got to work late. Not missing a beat, BumRushDaShow posted the monthly BLS Employment Report thread, most ably, I must say. Hee Haw Salute! (That's a good thing.)

I feel, though, as if something's missing if I don't get in on time to perform what I consider to be my duty. You'll see I had it posted right on the dot this morning.

It's about ninety cut and paste, already in the can and waiting to go. I add a few last minute details, and it's off to the races.

When I do post, I post regardless of what the numbers say. I'm not here to make any politician or party look good or bad. If people are dismayed, well, that's the news. I assume people come over here from -- ahem -- other websites to get their news. This is for them too.

Thank you so much for writing.

[Bengus81]

27. It's such great news the DOW is down almost 300 points right now....

[HuskyOffset]

28. The reason unemployment is so low

The reason unemployment is so low can be seen in another recent story here on DU: it's all those protesters being paid by Soros!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

30. That has to be it.

Yeah but what you have to understand is that most of those new jobs are for paid elevator protestors

Link to tweet

[displacedtexan]

29. Do the monthly numbers include the attrition rate?

Isn't it something like 140,000 per month, due to death, illness, migration, etc? I remember learning that each month, the employment number assumed that 140,000 replacement rate.

IIRC, they stopped reporting the true numbers under Dubya, brought them back for Obama, and now they're pulling the same crap for President Half Day W. Toiletpaper.

But what do I know? I was a French and German teacher.

[progree]

31. I have never heard anything even remotely like that.

Here is how the BLS says it measures unemployment (and it hasn't changed since 1994, and the change back then to the official unemployment rate was minor, resulting in about a 0.2 percentage point INCREASE.)

https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

There's a lot of garbage and conspiracy theories posted on the Intertubes that has no factual basis at all. I am happy to look at anything that shows explicitely where they got their information (often what is posted and the source of the information are way different in what they say -- one of the many tricks that polemicists use)

I deal with many of the common myths at http://www.democraticunderground.com/111622439#post2