Senate races: GOP up in Texas, Tennessee; Dems up in Arizona, New Jersey -- CBS News poll

[brooklynite]

Source: CBS News

The battle for Senate control finds Democrats trying to mount upset challenges in a string of typically Republican states, and this round of Battleground Tracker polls shows them having at best mixed results so far. In the closely watched race in Texas, incumbent Republican Ted Cruz has a lead over Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke, at six points among likely voters, 50-44.

In Arizona — an open seat in a state that went for President Trump in 2016 — Democrat Kyrsten Sinema has a slight edge over Republican Martha McSally, 47-44.

Tennessee finds Republican Marsha Blackburn with an eight-point lead over Democrat Phil Bredesen, 50-42. Bredesen is a former governor who, having won statewide office before, has given Democrats hope of flipping a red state that Mr. Trump won easily.

Typically blue New Jersey finds Republicans trying to mount an upset of their own against incumbent Democrat Bob Menendez, but Menendez has a sizable 49-39 advantage over Republican challenger Bob Hugin.



Read more: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/senate-races-gop-up-in-texas-tennessee-dems-up-in-arizona-new-jersey-cbs-news-poll/

[redstateblues]

1. Looks pretty grim though I don't think Blackburn

Has a lead like that

[SunSeeker]

11. Blackburn does not have a lead like that. Cook's has it as a toss up.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

AM Joy had a piece on the race this morning with a women from Cook Political Report and they discussed a poll that had Blackburn up by just half a point, a statistical tie.

[DUgosh]

2. Beto has momentum

Over Rafael

[SunSeeker]

12. Yup. Cook Political Report has it as a toss up.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

[Legends303]

3. Not a bad poll for Beto

I think Beto's strength is going into this election is getting unlikely voters to show up at the polls. However, that poll in Tennessee has me extremely worried.

[SunSeeker]

13. Those TN numbers are outliers. Cook Political Report has it as a toss up.

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2018, 01:48 AM - Edit history (1)

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

[redstateblues]

16. It's anecdotal but I have staunch Republican relatives

Who are voting for Bredesen

[SunSeeker]

17. I believe it. Bredesen is a popular former Governor and Nashville mayor.

He has a long history of working for the people of Tennessee. Blackwell is just a Washington GOP hack.

[packman]

4. Cruz and Blackburn reelected? There is no God

[DeminPennswoods]

5. Online poll

I'd take the YouGov poll with a grain of salt.

[only my opinion]

6. We were ahead in Tennessee before the fight over the judge and the election became nationalized

This is why I say we should quietly organize not publicly fight. A fight is what Trump and the GOP want, it will energize their base so that they will come out and vote. This is nothing more than a game to them, a sport, where all you want is your team to win. Look at the polls, before the fight over the judge only 60% of Republicans were interested in the mid-terms and after the fight 80%. A twenty point increase. For us, it is not a sport, it is about our lives. We do not need the excitement of the fight to energize us, we have been at a max energy level for a long time. Before the fight over the judge, 80% of Democrats were interested in the mid-terms, and after the fight 82%. A 2 point gain which is in the margin of error.

We should not PUBLICLY fight or call names. If we do not give them energy, us against them, their base will lose interest. There will be no excitement, no sport. If they bait us, and they will, we have only one response that we should use, what do Trump's wife and daughter think about this? We quietly organize person to person, we will get out the vote, while the Republicans lose interest, get bored, and stay home.

[CreekDog]

14. Red state polls are gonna drift towards Republicans as Election Day approaches, that's normal

And if Democrats hadn't fought Kavanaugh, that would dampen the enthusiasm of our base, negatively affecting our polls for that reason.

Democrats had to do the right thing and oppose Kavanaugh based on his record as well as other reasons, and they mostly did.

Looking weak or unwilling to oppose doesn't help our case, it makes folks wonder what they'd do if we got the majority.

[only my opinion]

15. I agree with you we had to fight him before it was a done deal

But now it is best for us to let them enjoy their moment, gloat, and become lazy. We are motivated and unless we publicly fight them, they are not.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Bredesen is a terrific candidate.

The question is can candidate quality overcome party preference.

[obamanut2012]

18. lulz

[cstanleytech]

7. The Repugnants are shitting themselves over having to actually fight to keep people like Cruz in

office so really even if we lose we still have won imo because its taking up alot more of their resources than ours to keep them office and they cannot maintain that amount of spending on the long run and this is just the midterms, imagine what the 2020 will be like for them especially if the Repugnants blow through their cash reserves now.

[llmart]

8. CBS News...

trying to get the bandwagon rolling for a horse race to keep ratings up. Watch for the media to start ramping up their nonsense until the election.

[AKing]

9. Ignore the polls and just show up and vote no matter what! If they show our candidate up by 20...

or down by 20. Just vote!

[lastlib]

20. And bring friends! eom

[Thekaspervote]

10. ipsos/ Reuters 9/28 Beto up by 2. One can hope

[beachbum bob]

19. I don't bleieve Blackburn has a 8 point lead over Bredesen at all

[rpannier]

22. I do

there is a certain percentage pf the electorate that only pay scant attention and it is when something major comes up. kavanaught cleared the senate, so the 'We like a winner' crowd are rallying to that flag. Something else comes up and they jump to another flag and so on

[Snellius]

21. Never trust "likely voters" polls. Like Rasmussen. Especially now.

There will be nothing "likely" this election.

[BigDemVoter]

24. Sorry to any liberal Tennesseans, but Tennessee is one, big SHIT HOLE.