Spoiler alert: Poll finds small following for Libertarian candidate

[trailmonkee]

Source: cnn

Washington (CNN) – Gary Johnson's poll numbers may not give him much-of-a shot at winning the presidency, but in the latest CNN/ORC Poll, he is registering enough of a following to possibly tip the balance in an increasingly close election.

Three percent of likely voters responded that they would vote for Johnson, the Libertarian Party's candidate for president, in November. That number is slightly higher among registered voters, with 4% identifying with the former governor of New Mexico.


-snip-

Obama leads Romney 52% to 46% when Romney and Obama are the only candidates in question, but Romney's support goes down three percentage points with the inclusion of the third party candidates. Obama's support only drops one point.

"The inclusion of the two minor-party candidates turns a six-point margin for President Obama into an eight-point lead," said Keating Holland, CNN's Polling Director. Since third party candidates are typically not on the ballot in all 50 states, those numbers can be slight deceiving when relating them to the support the candidates will receive on Election Day.

-snip-

Johnson is rarely included in national polls, something the Johnson campaign has long complained about.

"Our issue is that polls become self-fulfilling," said Hunter, before the latest poll numbers came out. Hunter went on to say that even if a poll shows only a small following, they create a conversation about the candidate and increase the campaign's profile.


Read more: http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/10/spoiler-alert-poll-finds-small-following-for-libertarian-candidate/

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the long and short of it; Obama has a bigger lead than we can tell from the polling since the Libertarian candidate is not being polled as well... include Johnson and we would have something more along the lines of Obama 51%, Romney 43%, Johnson 4%.

[Pab Sungenis]

1. The Paulbots are flocking to Johnson.

That's going to hold Romney's numbers down in states where Paul has a big following, and might even impact downticket races if the Ron Paul Republicans stay home.

#ObFuckRonPaul

[onehandle]

3. Yep. One of my best friends from high school in Georgia is voting for him.

He's a gun totin' Paulbot.

[trailmonkee]

4. Hoping he will help here in Colorado... pretty independent voters here... lots of swing voters too..

[Panasonic]

5. My Paulbot neighbor across the street

still has his sign up as of yesterday.

I think he's going to go to Gary too. I'll even encourage him to make sure Colorado is a lock for Obama.

[Comrade Grumpy]

8. Johnson hurts Obama more than he hurts Romney in Colorado

When you add him to the mix, Obama loses three votes for every two Romney loses, according to a Public Policy Polling survey last week.

I think it's the marijuana issue that is giving Johnson an opening there.

[FSogol]

9. Yup, the parking lot at the gym I go to is full of Paul and Johnson bumper stickers, some w/ both on

the same car.

[tomm2thumbs]

2. angry Tea Partiers will protest Romney and pat themselves on the back

and then the day after the election will say 'uh, wait a minute... I see what I did there....'

I know of 3 former Newt backers that are going to protest vote against Romney - and frankly, he's earned it

[Bernardo de La Paz]

6. "increasingly close"? 52 to 46 is not close and the gap has been widening, not narrowing.

Weeks and debates to go, and there is always the important downticket House, Senate, and State races.

[Jamaal510]

7. Obama only loses 1% with Johnson in the race

while Romney loses 3%? Yeah, the Obama supporters of 2008 have really been jumping ship.

[harmonicon]

10. I guess you and I take different lessons from this story.

I think the main thing it demonstrates is how fucked up and flawed our democracy is, no thanks to the mass media. If there's ever a candidate who keeps one person/party from getting an absolute majority, it's evidence that our democracy is seriously flawed. I'd love to see the Democratic party, or at least some of its major figures, take up the call for instant runoff voting again.

[davidn3600]

11. Romney and the GOP will be sorry they trashed these voters at the convention

Say what you want about Ron Paul but he had an amazing ground campaign of loyal supporters and connected with the youth. The GOP completely threw that away and went with the aging social conservative nuts, who are the shrinking part of the party.

So Romney thinks he's going to get votes by parading around with Pat Robertson? Are you kidding me??? Does the GOP pay any attention to the changing demographics of the country? They are playing this game as if it is still the 80s.