U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries
Source: Washington Post
The U.S. economy added a disappointing 130,000 in August, the Labor Department said Friday, heightening fears that Trumps trade war is starting to bite and the U.S. economy is hitting a rough patch. Economists had predicted 160,000 job gains in August. Business owners say they are struggling to find people to hire, and they are growing increasingly nervous about President Trumps trade war. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, the lowest in nearly half a century, forcing employers to search harder for new workers.
Right now, the United States is a tale of two economies: The service sector remains strong with health care and business adding a lot of jobs in August. But industries like mining and manufacturing that depend heavily on selling items overseas are struggling. Manufacturing is already in a recession and the sector has added few jobs this year, a trend that continued in August. Mining employment fell by 6,000 jobs. Hiring in August was also boosted heavily by the U.S. government adding 25,000 temporary workers to its payrolls for the 2020 Census.
Most companies have already scaled back spending on buildings and equipment, and there is concern that they will now cease hiring, a move that could have harmful consequences to the U.S. economy since consumer spending drives so much of the U.S. economy. When Americans are fearful of losing their jobs, they tend to halt spending.
In the past three months, job gains averaged 156,000 a month, a noticeable downgrade from last year, when job gains averaged 192,000 a month. For now, Americans are spending because were hiring! signs still appear plentiful in many towns and pay is rising at many companies. Wages grew at an annual pace of 3.2 percent in August, well above inflation, although slightly slower than earlier this year.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/09/06/us-economy-adds-just-jobs-august-amid-worries-that-trade-war-has-sunk-its-teeth-into-hiring/
Full headline: U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries that trade war has sunk its teeth into hiring
Will be updating this as info comes in and will await DU's economic analysts to add their deeper dive! TGIF!
Original article and headline -
By Washington Post Staff
September 6 at 8:31 AM
Businesses, consumers and political leaders are watching for effects of the trade war on the economy, and the labor market's strength has been a key focus.
This is a developing story. It will be updated.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/business/wp/2019/09/06/the-u-s-economy-added-130000-jobs-in-august-as-hiring-slowed-sharply-amid-concerns-that-the-economy-is-deteriorating/
bucolic_frolic
(42,676 posts)Who needs to invest? We still have overcapacity from QE1-2-3 and 0% capital for 10 years.
Some people are afraid to go to the store.
Not everyone feels the strong economy.
duforsure
(11,882 posts)Recession is here or coming very soon, and the puppet will claim the opposite again because it'll show his policies , his tax scam, and cuts on the poor and middle class have failed.
durablend
(7,416 posts)That "1" will be changed to a "4" by the end of the day by a certain black Sharpie.
KY_EnviroGuy
(14,483 posts)Not a lovely predicament to be in.......
Lonestarblue
(9,880 posts)The 20,000+ jobs are government hiring to staff up for the census. Business added only 97,000 jobsa pretty sharp decline when something like 150,000 total jobs were expected. Trump will accept a deal, any deal, with China maybe by the end of the year or early next year because no deal would be a drag on his reelection.
progree
(10,864 posts)than in the July report that came out on August 2.
25,000 of the 110,000 net new jobs came from hiring temporary census workers.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
BLS summary: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
BLS The Whole Thing: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf
And now for the usual perverse reaction of Wall Street:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-august-jobs-payrolls-report-213225200.html
But right now (937 AM ET) the Dow is a bit up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq is a bit down
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)Dopers_Greed
(2,640 posts)Bad economic news means that people will have less "consumer confidence" and spend less.
Which will cause companies will go heavy on layoffs, causing even more damage.
Both mean that no one will be able to pay down the massive amounts of debt that's out there, crashing the economy yet again.
Good thing we have the "King of Debt" steering the ship.
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,897 posts)The White House found a chart it could take a Sharpie to.
The chart is from 2016.
U.S. Unemployment Rate Remains at Near-Historic Low of 3.7 Percent; African-American Unemployment Rate Hits New Series Low
September 6, 2019 5 minute read
Council of Economic Advisers
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its monthly Employment Situation Report, showcasing strong wage growth and steady employment growth. Total nonfarm payroll employment in August increased by 130,000 jobs. Including revisions for the months of June and July, the average pace of job growth has been a robust 173,000 jobs per month over the past year and 158,000 jobs per month so far in 2019. The CBO projected only 14,000 new jobs per month at this point in the cycle in its final pre-2016 election forecast, prior to enactment of the Administrations pro-growth policies, so this months job growth is nearly ten times higher than the job growth CBO had anticipated for this quarter. In total, the economy has added over 6.3 million jobs since the President was elected, nearly 4.5 million more jobs than the CBO predicted would be created between the end of 2016 and the end of 2019:Q3 (figure 1).
{snip}
Other than that, good morning. I'll add more later on.
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)Good morning and TGIF to you!
Grins
(7,134 posts)Caught my eye:
"Hiring in August was also boosted heavily by the U.S. government adding 25,000 temporary workers to its payrolls for the 2020 Census."
When Obama hired temporary census workers in 2009 the Reich-wing screamed "Foul!" and "Fake!" and that those numbers should not be included in the jobs report. Worse, that it was done deliberately - at his direction.
No matter what spin the White House puts on these job numbers, it is unacceptable for President Obama to declare economic success when unemployment remains at 9.7 percent and a large portion of the job growth came from temporary boost in government employment." - Bloated, foreign sex-tourist, Rush Limbaugh.
So following their very-malleable rules:
The expectation for August was 160,000.
It came in at 130,000, so 30,000 or 19% fewer.
Subtract (Their rules!!) the 25,000 temporary census workers = 105,000.
So they missed by 55,000, a whopping 34.4%.
Screaming from those same Reich-wingers on this...Oh, who's kidding whom?
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)this month's will probably be revised down too... in the next month or two.
progree
(10,864 posts)110,000 more jobs than were reported in last month's report that came out August 2.
area51
(11,868 posts)progree
(10,864 posts)New York Times 8/2/19 https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/02/business/economy/july-jobs-report.html
Bengus81
(6,907 posts)So their getting happy feet over this--which is actually 20k temp jobs for the census.
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)I remember all the nonsense about his figures being "anemic".
(I like this article - https://www.minnpost.com/eric-black-ink/2019/05/on-the-economy-obama-owns-trump/ )
progree
(10,864 posts)https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
But darn, I can't update my table because its been very hit and miss accessing the BLS statistics, mostly miss, this morning.
This one is one I posted a month ago. It doesn't include the 501,000 revision downward reported last month for the previous year, but not included in the series (the BLS won't be including the revisions in their series above until the final revision in March 2020). And it's only through July.... But today's job report of +130,000 (and June and July revised downward by a combined 20,000) is only going to make the Trump numbers worse than shown below.
Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
191,000 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
165,000 2019 so far (January through July)
141,000 February through July 2019
But this is something I figured this morning when I had access to the time series (again the numbers don't include the 501,000 downward revision reported last month) :
Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
223,000 2018
173,000 Last 12 months (September 2018 thru August 2019)
158,000 This year so far (Jan thru Aug)
136,000 Last 7 months (Feb thru Aug)
156,000 Last 3 months
BlueIdaho
(13,582 posts)You can bet on it.
CountAllVotes
(20,854 posts)mahatmakanejeeves
(56,897 posts)MarketWatch
Published: Sept 6, 2019 11:18 a.m. ET
Analysts see quarter-point move on Sept. 18
By GREG ROBB, SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER
The weaker-than-expected August job report makes it all-but-certain the Federal Reserve will cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-point at their meeting in two weeks, economists said Friday.
A weak payrolls print all but cements a Fed rate cut in two weeks, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note to clients.
Read: U.S. creates just 130,000 new jobs in August
Brian Bethune, an economist at Tufts University, agreed: There are enough doves to get another rate cut done.
The doves are getting the upper-hand because the economy is slowing down more than the Fed expected, Bethune said. He sees growth running at a 1.5% annual rate in the third quarter, down from a 2.5% pace over the first half.
....
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)It was supposed to be "4%, 5%, even 6%!!!111!!!11!!".
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Aka, fairly called jobs with fair compensation?
It's probably even lower than I think.
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,897 posts)[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]
Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Lets look at some earlier numbers:
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2019:
Survey: Businesses added a solid 195,000 jobs in August
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2019:
U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2019:
ADP says 156,000 private-sector jobs added created in July
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2019:
Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2019:
U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2019:
The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:
ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:
UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:
UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:
Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:
U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:
U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:
U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:
Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:
U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:
Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:
U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:
The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:
Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:
U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2018:
U.S. Added 201,000 Jobs in August; Unemployment Rate Steady at 3.9%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2018:
U.S. Firms in August Added Fewest Workers in 10 Months, ADP Says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2018:
Payroll employment increases by 157,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.9%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2018:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 219,000 Jobs in July
BumRushDaShow
(127,314 posts)Hope you are enjoying the weekend.