Tropical storm Humberto likely to form near Florida, but final destination uncertain

[Zorro]

Source: Washington Post

The tropics have been relatively quiet for the past week, but they’re not going to stay that way for long. A tropical storm — which would be dubbed Humberto — is likely to form between the Bahamas and Florida’s east coast and could affect parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. In addition, an area much farther east in the tropical Atlantic also bears watching.

A disturbance over the central and southeastern Bahamas has become better organized but is a very challenging system to forecast. Its ragged, sloppy structure right now makes it difficult for computer models to project its future path.

We do know it’s favored to develop. In fact, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, and the Hurricane Center may begin issuing regular advisories later today.

The most immediate concern is that, according to the Hurricane Center, the disturbance will bring heavy rains (1 to 3 inches or so) and gusty winds in portions of the northwestern Bahamas that were hammered by Hurricane Dorian.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/12/tropical-storm-humberto-likely-form-near-florida-final-destination-uncertain/

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Oughtta ask Trump where the storm is heading.

[yaesu]

1. If I were in Alabama I would stock up on food & water, am sure the orange weatherman is ready

to predict its path.

[OxQQme]

2. See storms in real time here:

https://www.windy.com/-Clouds-clouds?clouds,29.118,-87.970,5

[BumRushDaShow]

3. The models have been all over the place with it at this point

It will have to form first before the models start zeroing in on a better consensus.

[Baclava]

5. Yep, one model has it going to Alabama, one to Carolinas, no shit! Lol

Too early to tell, wait n see

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Yesterday's Euro 0z

had it going smack into South Jersey like Sandy!

(am hoping that doesn't verify though )

[Baclava]

7. Suuuuck New England suuuuuck

Keep it outta the Gulf please

TIA

[RhodeIslandOne]

9. The latest seems to have it going way out to sea.

Maybe that's not the Euro, but I can't imagine such a big disparity.

[BumRushDaShow]

10. The GFS had showed OTS during the same run time as that ECMWF (Euro)

(where the Euro sent it up to NJ) but was slower... and then in runs after that, the GFS lost the storm, then it found it and sent it to the GOM.

The current (as of this post) 6z GFS is running and showing it (at least out to 60) right along the FL coast before starting to recurve out.

I think now that it is "officially" a TS (Humberto), the models will hopefully get the circulation data from the recons and be able to refine potential tracks.

[packman]

4. Sharpen the Sharpies

Ready for Act II?

[louis-t]

8. I'm in Michigan. Should I be worried?

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

11. If the storm should get to the warm waters of Lake Erie, it could increase.

I think Hurricane Hazel did a number on our neighbor, Toronto, back in the day.

Stay alert, Louis, stay sharpie.

[louis-t]

12. If the storm comes near me, I can sharpie it away

right?

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

13. Yes, draw a line and the storm will veer into Columbus, OH

Better it should befuddle the football team at THE Ohio State U.

Go blue.

[RhodeIslandOne]

14. Humberto will be HUGE in Michigan

"But not as big as me, no way, I was the biggest ever. I was man of the year in Michigan"