U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: MarketWatch

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

Published: Jan 8, 2020 9:40 a.m. ET

ADP reports job gains rose by 202,000, well above forecast of 157,000

By GREG ROBB
SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER

The numbers: U.S. private-sector employment picked up in December as businesses added 202,000 jobs, according to data released Wednesday.

Economists polled by Econoday had expected a December gain of 157,000 compared with an originally reported increase of 67,000 in November. On Wednesday, ADP revised November's gain to 124,000.



Largest gain in ADP jobs since April.

What happened: Private-sector service providers made up most of December's growth, adding 173,000 jobs. Meanwhile, goods producers added 29,000. Midsized companies added 88,000 jobs, small companies added 69,000 jobs and large companies added 45,000.

Big picture: Economists use ADP's data to get an idea of the Labor Department's employment report, which will be released Friday and covers government jobs in addition to the private sector. Economists polled by MarketWatch expect the government's report to show nonfarm payroll employment rose by 160,000 jobs last month, compared with a November gain of 266,000 jobs. Economists noted that the two reports do not always move in tandem. That was evident in November, when the ADP reading was weak in contrast to the strong gain in private payrolls.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-adds-the-most-jobs-in-eight-months-adp-2020-01-08

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But, you don't like it, so it's not true.

I see.

BLS on Friday.

[scarytomcat]

1. green jobs? no... Military weapons? yes I hear drums

gotta make 'em then blow 'em up
good use of resources... not

[Farmer-Rick]

2. Yeah, more minimum wage, no benefits, sales clerk jobs.

That'll pay off those $1.6 trillion in student loans.

[llashram]

3. yeah okay

and one person has to have 3 of these jobs to barely get by. Give me a break! Making trump look good, is that the point here? Just asking.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. Yes, it is. You caught me. I confess. NT

[Drunken Irishman]

14. I knew a guy who was homeless in 1998.

By that logic, the economy back then must have been horrifically bad.

How many Americans do you think work three jobs?

According to the Census, only roughly 4.9% of Americans have more than one job, with the highest-ever being 6.2% at some point between 1970 and 2013.

Americans who work multiple jobs have always been an extremely rare outlier.

[llashram]

20. okay

well, most young people I know in my social strata are working part time jobs 2 and 3. No benefits and minimum wage. So by my census they are struggling mightily and today they aren't "outliers", they are what I call strugglers. Yet I do agree that you are entitled to your opinion and census numbers. Statistics in this country HAVE ALWAYS been skewed to put on the best face of a predatory American economy and financial system. Those jobs added while helpful to the "outlier" social strata person, barely provides a minimum ability to feed and house the "outlier" social strata and will not pay for health care needs of the average "outlier" citizen.

[OnlinePoker]

5. Hiring people before Christmas.

I'm shocked.

[MissMillie]

6. that's exactly what I was thinking

Seasonal work. Here today--gone tomorrow

[onenote]

8. Apparently the 10,000 times it has been pointed out that the reports are "seasonally adjusted"

weren't sufficient.

So here's one more: the report is "seasonally adjusted" -- it says so in the very first sentence of the actual report.

Here is how the report explains the seasonal adjustment:

Seasonal adjustment
After calculating the matched employment growth in every industry by size class, we apply the X-13ARIMA-SEATS method to remove outliers and seasonally adjust these employment growth series. De-seasonalized trends for the industrial cells are recalculated with each new month of data. The X-13ARIMA SEATS is the seasonal adjustment method developed by the U. S. Census Bureau in collaboration with the Bank of Spain that integrates an enhanced version of X-12-ARIMA with an enhanced version of SEATS to provide both X-11 method seasonal adjustments and ARIMA model-based seasonal adjustments and diagnostics. This is the seasonal adjustment software the Census Bureau uses.

Each observation in an industrial cell is then compared with the trend value, and outlier observations are removed. Matched employment growth for the 90 size classes is calculated for the second time using the cleaned data. Each cell’s employment growth is seasonally adjusted again using the same X-13ARIMA method.

Complicating this process is the fact that in some months there are five weeks, rather than four, between the survey weeks used by the BLS. The bureau employs an adjustment to account for the longer period. A similar adjustment is made using the ADP payroll data: regressing the growth rate in each cell on a dummy variable which, if significant, is used to eliminate the long-month effect.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

12. I was just about to say that. NT

[leftyladyfrommo]

7. But manufacturing is way off. It's the lowest in 10

years or something.

And the trouble is that those manufacturing jobs paid a decent wage thanks to the unions.

I got my hair cut this morning and the stylist who has been working since 1984 said she used to be able to make a good living . Not any more. The companies take the profits.

She relies on tips. Remember to tip! It's important to those working people out there.

[OnlinePoker]

9. I cut my own hair now instead of going to the barber

I have had the same basic cut for 38 years (being in the military for 35 of those). It saves me $20 every 6 weeks and paid for the barber kit in 4 months.

[mathematic]

10. No, that manufacturing headline was misleading

It was reporting on a measurement created by a private organization, not the government, that is intended to measure the trend in the manufacturing sector.

So the "trend" was the worst in 10 years. That's not the same thing as saying manufacturing is the lowest it's been in 10 years (it isn't).

[leftyladyfrommo]

11. I believe you. But you trust the government?

You know. I just don't any more. I wait to hear from other sources.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Well ADP is another source - not the government.

[onenote]

15. Can you elaborate on why a measure of "manufacturing activity" isn't a measure of manufacturing?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-manufacturing-dives-to-10-year-low-as-trade-tensions-weigh-idUSKBN1WG47G

[mathematic]

16. The index measures growth/contraction, not levels

A measure of manufacturing activity is a measure of manufacturing (obviously, I suppose, and I don't know why you would characterize what I said that way). It's just not a measure that many people think it is. It's not a measure of levels it's a measure of trend.

Hypothetically, if manufacturing declined 1% and then started growing 2% a year for 10 years and then declined 1% again it would be absolutely correct to say "manufacturing activity hasn't declined this much in 10 years" and absolutely incorrect to say "manufacturing is at a 10 year low". In this hypothetical scenario, manufacturing is about 20% higher now than it was 10 years ago.

Here's the actual ISM release, for reference.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December, and the overall economy grew for the 128th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1

[onenote]

17. thanks

[mahatmakanejeeves]

18. Some earlier reports about the manufacturing index:

Manufacturing economy weakest in a decade as December ISM index comes in at 47.2

U.S. manufacturing sector slumps further in November: ISM

[mahatmakanejeeves]

19. Links to earlier reports:

Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2019 (this one):

U.S. private sector adds the most jobs in eight months

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2019:

Labor market remained strong in November as U.S. economy added 266,000 jobs

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2019:

U.S. private sector job growth slows down sharply in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2019:

U.S. economy added 128,000 jobs in October as GM strike displaced workers; jobless rate ticks up

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2019:

U.S. economy added just 136,000 jobs in September, in fresh sign economy is cooling

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 135,000 Jobs in September

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2019:

U.S. economy adds just 130,000 jobs in August amid worries

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2019:

Survey: Businesses added a solid 195,000 jobs in August

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2019:

U.S. Added 164,000 Jobs in July; Unemployment Rate at 3.7 Percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2019:

ADP says 156,000 private-sector jobs added created in July

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2019:

Hiring rebounds as U.S. economy adds 224,000 jobs in June;unemployment rate inched up to 3.7 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2019:

U.S. private sector hiring picks up less than expected in June: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2019:

The U.S. economy added only 75,000 jobs in May amid bite from Trump's trade war

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2019:

ADP private-sector job growth tumbles to a 9-year low in May

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. unemployment fell to 3.6 percent, lowest since 1969

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 275,000 Jobs in April

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2019:

UPDATE: U.S. added 196,000 jobs in March as economy shows signs of spring bounce

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2019:

Private sector hiring falls to 18-month low, and manufacturing sheds jobs, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2019:

U.S. adds meager 20,000 jobs in February to mark smallest increase in 17 months

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2019:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 183,000 Jobs in February

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2019:

U.S. creates 304,000 jobs in January, unemployment rises to 4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2019:

U.S. added 213,000 private-sector jobs in January, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 312,000 in December; unemployment rate rises to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2018:

U.S. adds most private-sector jobs in almost 2 years, says ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2018:

Payroll employment increases by 155,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2018:

U.S. adds 179,000 private-sector jobs in November: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2018:

The U.S. economy added 250,000 jobs in October, unemployment stays at 3.7 percent

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2018:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 227,000 Jobs in October 2018:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2018:

Unemployment rate declines to 3.7% in September; payroll employment increases by 134,000

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2018:

U.S. adds 230,000 private-sector jobs in September: ADP

[Brainfodder]

21. Bragging about SEASONAL work, again?

...this never gets old...