The Dow just tumbled into a bear market -- here's how long those downturns last on average

[turbinetree]

Source: Market Watch

Published: March 12, 2020 at 10:17 a.m. ET
By Mark DeCambre
Dow’s plunge into a bear market from a recent high is fastest since Great Depression

It’s the end of a bullish era for the stock market and the beginning of a new phase of bearishness, after a sharp plunge for risk assets on Wednesday pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average into bear-market territory for the first time in more than a decade.

U.S. equity indexes on Wednesday mostly resumed a downtrend that saw all three major U.S. equity gauges touch bear-market territory, commonly defined as a decline of at least 20% from a recent peak. The declines deepened after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19, the infectious disease that was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December, a pandemic.

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-just-tumbled-into-a-bear-market-ending-the-longest-bull-market-run-in-historyheres-how-those-downturns-last-on-average-2020-03-11?mod=mw_latestnews

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Dow Jones Industrial Average

21,702.41
-1,850.81 -7.86%

https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/djia?&mod=home-page

[beachbumbob]

1. this market plunge has NO historical basis and is NEW frontier

so data from last 100years need to be ignored

[Loki Liesmith]

2. Lol ok

I’ll definitely take financial advice from randos on DU

[turbinetree]

3. The current population has never gone through a pandemic..............................

like the folks did in 1918...........................

https://www.globaltrademag.com/the-spanish-flu-and-the-stock-market-the-pandemic-of-1919/

[CurtEastPoint]

4. Bob, are you a 'rando?'

WTH

[beachbumbob]

5. wht?

[CurtEastPoint]

6. See post #2

I’ll definitely take financial advice from randos on DU

[cstanleytech]

7. I would think that WW2 was atleast as disruptive at a global scale.

[Watchfoxheadexplodes]

8. I'm laughing at fox business

"great upturn after down turn possible 32000 before summer"

Says goof varney

[MosheFeingold]

9. This is like a hurricane

Yeah everything shuts down for a month.

Then comes back stronger.

Comparisons to WWII or a systematic situation like the Great Depression are silly.

[Turin_C3PO]

13. The market was overvalued anyway.

It was due for a correction.

[usaf-vet]

10. From the same source. For those of us who are not Market Watchers

On average, a bear market for the Dow lasts 206 trading days, while the average bear period for the S&P 500 is about 146 days, according to data from Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow is currently off 20.3% from its Feb. 12 record, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are 19% from their Feb. 19 peaks.

Here’s how the rest of that data looks like, according to Dow Jones (see attached table):



Note my calculations.

On average, a bear market for the Dow lasts 206 trading days. 206 days from March 11/12 would be Oct 4, 2020. Given the 206 days included weekend (non-trading days) that should take the bear market well into election day November 3, 2020, if the average holds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-just-tumbled-into-a-bear-market-ending-the-longest-bull-market-run-in-historyheres-how-those-downturns-last-on-average-2020-03-11?mod=mw_latestnews

[klook]

11. Yes, 206 trading days brings us to January

As you point out, Oct. 4 is 206 calendar days away. Using timeanddate.com, I came up with January 8, 2021. So that could mean recovery beginning just as the new Dem administration takes power.

Note: This calculation excludes weekend days and standard U.S. holidays. The stock market may be closed other days I'm not aware of, so this could extend a bit.

[JudyM]

12. That's poetic.

[lagomorph777]

14. Perfect! - Assuming that the pandemic ends soon.

Which, so far, doesn't seem realistic...

[JudyM]

15. Yeah, not wishing a lethal epidemic or a bear market on the general public. Both are wake-up calls.

And might even start to be viewed as such by the millions who seem to be sleeping.