CNN Poll: Biden tops Trump nationwide, but battlegrounds tilt Trump

[kansasobama]

Source: CNN

In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, while 46% say they prefer Trump, while in the battlegrounds, 52% favor Trump and 45% Biden. Partisans are deeply entrenched in their corners, with 95% of Democrats behind Biden and the same share of Republicans behind Trump. The two are close among independents (50% back Trump, 46% Biden, not a large enough difference to be considered a lead), but Biden's edge currently rests on the larger share of voters who identify as Democrats.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/politics/cnn-poll-2020/index.html

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Depressing! Our guys have to do better in the battlegrounds, I guess. Trump voters are like a cult. I am telling you. While some of our voters sit out, Trumpists vote Trump from COVID hospital beds and unemployment lines. I just cannot live through another 2016 election night.

[Iliyah]

1. Biden will win the ECs and popular vote ... ...

[LakeArenal]

3. Indeed he will. We will also win the Senate.

[mac56]

2. They must have their horse race.

[LenaBaby61]

9. They must have their horse race.

Biden was leading in all of the battle ground states just last week.

Yeah, :eyeroll: @ these polling numbers, because the ONLY thing that has been going on is death, destruction, loss of jobs, food lines, naked food pantries, lies and more damn lies coming out of camp tRump, yet tRump per CNN is leading Biden in the battleground states? Yeah sure That can happen if you poll mostly right-wingers in this poll.

What Dems have to do is vote in HUGE numbers, because this hog knows that he has to cheat bigly to steal another GE, and we know he'll do it.

[agingdem]

12. exactly...

the media wanted a horse race in 2016...they got it..how'd that work out for them???

[LiberalLovinLug]

25. Worked out great for them.

"Trump catapults cable news outlets to their best ratings year ever"

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-cable-news-ratings-2016-12


And with Trump on every day with new shocking insults, or lies to talk about, its still going great.

[agingdem]

32. talk about a cycle!

the media makes a shitload of money off of the vile orange narcissistic sociopath and he in turn gets to demean, humiliate, revile them and they present this idiocy as news and make a shitload of money off of him..a win/win for everyone except for us...we lose...Marshall McLuhan was right...the media is the message

[LiberalLovinLug]

37. +1000

[Thekaspervote]

14. Right! If you read the poll 538 people polled across 15 states...that's not reliable

[TomCADem]

4. Make No Mistake. Trump Wiill Direct Barr to Prosecute Biden...

....and anyone else in his way with Fox News ready to cheerlead the demise of our democracy.

[empedocles]

5. Note Whitmer not well known. Good as a reminder to we DUers.

'Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is the least widely known of this group, with 63% of Democratic voters saying they haven't heard of her or don't yet have an opinion of her, but those who do largely tilt positive, 29% favorable to 9% unfavorable.' - CNN above

63%? !!!

[thesquanderer]

6. So which VP choice helps the most? Poll defines battleground states as...

...ones that were within 8 points: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

[Lock him up.]

35. "New" Electoral-Vote map from electoral-vote.com

"New" because it's not updated daily it seems: Texas back in the margins (what's up with the food-bank lines near San Antonio?). Biden is still up in Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.



538 is more accurate: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

CNN loves to be name-called Fake News I guess...

[Thekaspervote]

7. The battleground part of the poll...538 people..really?

Looking at other current pollsters and poll averages, they look nothing like this poll

[kimbutgar]

8. Wait until those number of corona virus number of deaths go up in those states and his supporters

And family members die or they get hit with high medical bills. They won’t think it’s a hoax anymore. We might see an adjustment in those numbers Of those who stay home on Election Day.

Unintended consequences always catches up with the truth and science.

[BamaRefugee]

19. They'll find a way to pin it on Dems, they ALWAYS do, and the deplorables ALWAYS run with it.

[yankee87]

49. Ohio Here

That is what I am afraid of. Let's face it with a right wing media in the USA, and the Orange idiot having the megaphone of the office, he can change the narrative.

[qazplm135]

10. I'll say the same thing about this poll

as about other more positive polls.

It's way to early to spend a lot of time worrying or celebrating them. It's an eternity in political years until November.

Additionally, this poll averaged something like 40 people per battleground state. That's not remotely scientific.
It's meaningless.

Folks don't get too high or too low on polling right now. Wait until September when both conventions are done and a couple of weeks have passed.

[still_one]

15. Exactly

[kansasobama]

11. Hope we are correct

I do agree. Make no mistake. Trump will direct Barr to investigate. Not Biden but Obama if Trump wins. That almost answers the VP question. First Lady Obama need to get off her "not interested" horse and accept the VP position. I would say she may be naive to think it is all well and good. Trump will drag Obama to mud to prove that Russia is a hoax. And, he will with Barr.

[still_one]

13. Their battleground poll groups them all together as one, and that is misleading

One has to do polls on individual states

[Thekaspervote]

16. +1000 there are lots of individual battleground polls that show Biden with a growing lead

[still_one]

17. +++

[GOPBasher]

18. Other than the national margin, the rest of this seems like such an outlier compared to other polls.

First, Biden is ahead among older voters, but behind among younger ones? Come on. And I don't know about the sampling of 583 voters across all 13 battle grounds, but here are numbers for a few individual large swing states.

PA: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

FL: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Florida.html[link:https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Florida.html|

MI: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

OH: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Ohio.html

PA, FL, and MI look good. OH is so-so.

[Thekaspervote]

22. Thx for posting all of this. Here's one more up and coming pollster that's gaining lots of attention

https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/presidential-forecast/

Rachael Bitecofer among others are finding his polling interesting and accurate

[GOPBasher]

40. Cool, the pollster's forecast is looking good. Thanks for posting! n/t

[Bleacher Creature]

20. Take a deep breath and read this.

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[Thekaspervote]

30. +1000

[Jarqui]

21. I do not believe that poll

I tried to find the mix of demographics but did not find it quickly.
I did not feel like trying to figure it out from their numbers.
It should be readily available if they're credible and professional.
Shouldn't have to search for it.

Why would I say that?
From looking at all the polls on Real Clear Politics & 538.com
and from Trump's state by state approval numbers
https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

Trump is not close to leading in any of Hillary's 2016 states.
And he's behind in many if not all of the battleground states

[Thekaspervote]

28. Thx for posting! Going thru the states really tells the story

[Jarqui]

34. I started to do that

but I also started to ask myself "why am I wasting my time"
I did this not very long ago.

It is as blatantly wrong as it could be in my opinion.

With the exception of a weird outlier, Biden's leading in almost all the polls in the battleground states - or a heck of a lot of them.

Between the two parties, I think the GOP leaning pollsters are far more guilty of having their thumb on the scales. They're trying to keep it somewhat close to give him a prayer.

But Trump is taking care of himself for us. He's opening up the states. The virus will come back gangbusters. The economy will hunker down even lower than it is now for a longer period of time - meaning no recovery for his reelection effort.

When the Red states start having to bury their own, Trump will be in deep trouble.

It's awful to say that because it means more are going to die needlessly.

[Dawson Leery]

46. 2016 Part II.

The media wants a horserace.

[Jarqui]

47. And the GOP would like something perceived as close enough

so that when they steal it, nobody is completely shocked .... like they did 2016 ...

[Cryptoad]

23. Blue Sunami

https://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Thekaspervote]

29. Thx for the link. This is where the state of the race is and it looks pretty good!

[Lock him up.]

38. Yes, but no complacency allowed. Work to register new Dems to vote.

Obama's voters kids who were young teenagers in 2008 will be between 18 and 21 in 2020.

GOTV VOTE BLUE ALL DOWN TICKET (not just President Biden then leave...)



https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

[FloridaBlues]

24. Hard to believe they are tied with independents.

We still have our work cut out for us to gotv.

[GeorgeGist]

26. This country is VERY sick.

[MFM008]

27. Outlier

Biden was ahead in all battleground states. Its bullshit.

[rockfordfile]

31. This isn't late breaking it's just opinion

[ananda]

33. Not worried.

Rightwing networks have a vested interest in close polls.

But Biden has this, and so do the Dems!

It will be a landslide, with coattails!

[Polybius]

41. CNN is not a right-wing network though

Just sayin'.

[Demsrule86]

45. You can't combine states in one poll...it distorts the numbers and is not reliable.

CNN should know better.

[TheFourthMind]

36. Oh yes. The, regardless of the state of things, 50/50 poll that keeps you watching.

And less shocked when elections are stolen.

[SKKY]

39. The only thing any of this really means is the only way Trump wins...

...is if we as Democrats don't turn out to vote in large numbers. Beshear showed the way in Kentucky folks and it isn't hard. We need an all hands on deck, get out the vote campaign with every major Democratic leader in the country leading the way.

[UCmeNdc]

42. This does not look good, if this is accurate. Biden must win PA OH WI MN IL

Biden must work on his perception. Trump's messaging is to try to make Biden look weak, senile, slow, and unpresidential. Biden must come out and prove Trump wrong by looking strong and in command at all times.

[Aristus]

43. Translation: "Biden is way ahead, but pleasepleaseplease keep tuning in, clicking, or buying

our newspaper! Pleasepleaseplease!..."

[Demsrule86]

44. Bullshit poll...you have to do states individually.

[titaniumsalute]

48. Don't fret over one poll

The methodology of this was pretty bad. The sample size (Called n-tab in survey research) was extremely low especially in the so-called swing states. It was so low that in some cases the standard error was nearly +/- 10%/ That is pretty big. In addition, the sample size was so low that they couldn't even break out the sample for non-white responses because the n was so low.