Fauci warns of 'really bad situation' if daily coronavirus cases don't drop to 10K by September
Source: the hill
By Justine Coleman - 08/03/20 07:07 PM EDT
Anthony Fauci, the countrys top infectious disease expert, warned on Monday that the U.S. could be in a really bad situation if the number of new coronavirus cases confirmed daily does not drop to 10,000 by next month.
Fauci, the director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said during a livestream interview with the Journal of the American Medical Association that he is basing that number on the expected emergence of the flu in the fall, as well as the return of colder weather, which will likely drive more people indoors, where health experts say COVID-19 spreads easier.
"If we don't get them down, then we're going to have a really bad situation in the fall," Fauci said, according to NBC News.
Currently, the U.S. is seeing between 50,000 and 70,000 new COVID-19 cases identified per day, with a seven-day average of 61,815, according to New York Times data. ..........................................
Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/510361-fauci-warns-of-really-bad-situation-if-daily-coronavirus-cases-dont-drop-to
So, far my family has been lucky. We do take precautions
But I am starting to really worry lately. The monster virus seems to be everywhere!
louis-t
(23,296 posts)It's the only way.
iluvtennis
(19,868 posts)former9thward
(32,064 posts)It is a totally subjective phrase that 100 people will define in 100 different ways.
localroger
(3,629 posts)Two or three million will die. Worse, about twenty to forty percent of the population will effectively get the virus at the same time, toward the end of its explosive growth curve, and several tens of millions will need hospitalization. But there are only less than a million hospital rooms in the US, much less people to staff them, so many more will die who might have lived. (This is what the whole "flattening the curve" thing was always meant to avoid.)
It will happen with great suddenness, going from manageable to overwhelming within the space of a week in much of the country.
That's the bad situation. It's always been the bad situation to fear; the first researchers in China who established its ferocious transmissibility and death rate extrapolated it back in January. It's always been there for anybody familiar with the math to read. And it could have been avoided, but it wasn't, and our window for avoiding it is shrinking while the drama of what we will have to do to stop it is increasing daily.
Personally, I think if the schools are reopened that will be the end of any chance of containing it. It will roll over us like an avalanche leaving the survivors to pick up the pieces and figure how to carry on.
That's what Dr. Fauci is talking about.
Mr. Evil
(2,853 posts)is that it is quite possibly the very last thing we should do right now. Young people coming from all over to one university is a recipe for more hot spot outbreaks. Local elementary schools are always a hotbed of infections because little kids are always touching each other, putting things in their mouths and even with the best protocols put in place they just don't understand the gravity of this crisis. High school youth love to congregate in and out of school. Couple that with post adolescence desires and you have another recipe for disaster. So many other issues will arise from this upcoming debacle.
All this so DJT (Doofus Joke Trump) and Jared could turn this into some sort of political ammunition to blame the Democrats and sweep themselves to reelection in November. Craven and depraved.
appalachiablue
(41,167 posts)- Just in time for school, 2 new studies conclude small kids carry & transmit COVID-19 just fine.- Daily Kos, 8/1/20.
https://democraticunderground.com/1016264477
*New research indicates that, although they dont suffer the same degree of ill effects as adults, children aged 5-17 are actually bastions of COVID-19 contagion to other children, as well as adults such as parents, grandparents, and teachers. More on that in a moment.. The real danger is that statements like DeVos are regurgitated over and over by unqualified bloviators in right-wing media, until they worm their way into school board meetings across the country, ultimately influencing the decisions that determine the fate of the nations schoolchildren.
* Which brings us back to that research that contradicts both DeVos and Trump. Two separate new studies examining the transmission of COVID-19 by younger children now strongly indicate those statements are categorically false. In fact, the exact opposite seems to be the case: Small children spread the COVID-19 virus quite efficiently, even moreso than adults.
* William A. Haseltine, a healthcare contributor for Forbes, reports: Two new studies, though from different parts of the world, have arrived at the same conclusion: that young children not only transmit SARS-CoV-2 efficiently, but may be major drivers of the pandemic as well. The first study, published in JAMA, is peer-reviewed. As Haseltine notes, researchers examined findings from a pediatric hospital in Chicago, the Ann & Robert H. Lurie Childrens Hospital. The Chicago study examines the concentration of the SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx, or the upper region of the throat that connects to the nasal passages, of children and adults. According to the results, children 5 years and younger who develop mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms have 10 to 100 times as much SARS-CoV-2 in the nasopharynx as older children and adults.
Whenever these young children cough, sneeze, or shout, they expel virus-laden droplets from the nasopharynx into the air. If they have as much as one hundred times the amount of virus in their throat and nasal passages as adults, it only makes sense that they would spread the virus more efficiently. The study also shows that children from the ages of 5 to 17, also with mild to moderate Covid-19 symptoms, have the same amount of virus in the nasopharynx as adults age 18 and above. - The Chicago study did not specifically examine the rate of transmission by small children, but rather its efficiency. The fact that a child has 100 times as much of the virus in nasal swab samples strongly points to a very efficient rate of transmission, just like any other cold or virus a child catches and spreads in school or day care. As reported in The New York Times this week, the lead author of the study was quite clear on this.
It definitely shows that kids do have levels of virus similar to and maybe even higher than adults, Dr. Heald-Sargent said. It wouldnt be surprising if they were able to shed the virus and spread it to others...
Read More,
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/8/1/1965794/-Just-in-time-for-school-two-new-studies-conclude-small-kids-carry-and-transmit-COVID-19-just-fine
Mr. Evil
(2,853 posts)This should be on every media outlet. Repeated hourly! Except, of course, Focksnooze where they'd feel more productive by showing how raindrops can be slippery on pavement.
former9thward
(32,064 posts)If someone asked Dr. Fauci if everyone would get the virus and two or three million would die, would he say "yes"? I really doubt it. I think he would give another subjective vague answer than no one could hold him to.
localroger
(3,629 posts)As the head of the fired-by-Trump pandemic task force said years ago, "Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist, and everything we do after will seem inadequate." We're still in the "seems alarmist" phase. But not for long.
brewens
(13,612 posts)could be something someone more creative than me could work with.
Midnight Writer
(21,780 posts)Steelrolled
(2,022 posts)regnaD kciN
(26,045 posts)...at the major news sites.
BumRushDaShow
(129,304 posts)(because apparently they wanted to write an article about "schools" so they used that as a jumping point )
https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/health/us-coronavirus-monday/index.html
Everything they include in the article regarding what he "said" has not been done and/or is difficult, if not impossible for any school to do consistently.
I_UndergroundPanther
(12,480 posts)My apartment and all the other apartments here have thier own HVAC system. Apparently it's a housing requirement.
Docreed2003
(16,869 posts)If we had had a national response that adequately handled the initial outbreak, then we would most certainly be in a better place. But no, we Americans know better and our independence steak is matched only by our undaunted stupidity. We allowed a non-political disaster to become political and here we are.
cloudythescribbler
(2,586 posts)It is identifiable pernicious influences at work (many of which have to be fought elsewhere also, and ARE -- but more effectively) in our society and not "we Americans". Individualism, independence and assertion of freedom are all important values to me -- but they have nothing to do with the organized stupidity & perversity that brings the country down. Canadians are not SO different from Americans that you can explain the different outcomes by merely appealing to national culture. Under a government as progressive (relatively, mind you) as Canada's, Americans wd do much better, more similar to their than our current situation
Illumination
(2,458 posts)PSPS
(13,608 posts)The real experts are saying the only proper thing to do is "Shut It Down, Start Over, Do It Right"
https://uspirg.org/sites/pirg/files/USP_Public-health_final-letter-shutdowns_V4.pdf
Illumination
(2,458 posts)PSPS,
Anyone listening to the experts knew it was a bad idea to listen to the non-expert Trump about re-opening. It was just common sense 101! And now children are going back to school & bringing C-19 home to their families & communities All the while Trump has been encouraging this. I find it suspicious that he had nothing to say about bounties on American troops. So as I've stated before is there a bounty on dead Americans for Putin also? Seems very plausible. He certainly has no compassion for all the needless suffering of 175,000+++ Americans. Take care.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)NickB79
(19,257 posts)It was declining with two days at 45,000, but some of that relates to the fact testing has also fallen. Florida and the East Coast shut down as storms hit, and reagent and lab shortages hit as well.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,027 posts)It hit a peak of 69,150 on July 25, which is below the single-day peak of daily new cases of 78,446 on July 24.
The 7 day average is now down to 58,924 yesterday Aug 5 and has declined every day since July 25.
The 7 day average is used to smooth out weekly variations because Sundays and Mondays tend to report lower numbers due to less work being done on weekends. That's the Aug 2 and 3 values you mention.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
tclambert
(11,087 posts)And that's in the summer when the snowbirds have fled north for cooler weather. Some of my relatives will have to think real hard whether or not to return to Florida in the fall.
BadgerKid
(4,554 posts)DT pats himself on the back.
Javaman
(62,532 posts)I have put in my orders for my winter vegetable plants and should get those at the end of october.
greens and root vegetables.
this is going to be one fucking hard winter.
Kaleva
(36,325 posts)The garden is producing now so we'll be canning produce along with using fresh, That along with fishing ought to extend my supply to 60 days.