Unemployment claims figures could be much lower because of new seasonal adjustment approach
Source: USA TODAY
Unemployment claims figures could be much lower because of new seasonal adjustment approach
Paul Davidson
USA TODAY
Published 12:01 a.m. ET Sep. 3, 2020
The Labor Department is switching to a new method to seasonally adjust its weekly jobless claims figures that could result in a sharply lower claims totals.
Initial claims - a rough measure of layoffs --that have hovered around 1 million each of the past few weeks could come in closer to about 800,000 for the week ending Aug. 29.
As a result, USA Today has decided to use non-seasonally adjusted claims totals so we can better compare the most recent numbers with previous figures.
Economics reporter Paul Davidson breaks it down.
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Read more: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2020/09/03/jobless-claims-new-seasonal-adjustment-method-could-lower-totals/5698414002/
"These only go to nine."
Lucky Luciano
(11,257 posts)...so if you are in an entirely new regime, the adjustment is meaningless. We are obviously in an entirely new regime now with Covid, so prior data wont help make the adjustment which is usually based on some linear model.
In general, the adjustment methodologies are meaningful to compare different months, but not in the current climate.
mahatmakanejeeves
(57,488 posts)And good morning.
beachbumbob
(9,263 posts)zero faith in any govt "report"
keithbvadu2
(36,823 posts)We probably would not hear it if the new method resulted in higher numbers?
The old method would have been just fine.