Post-debate polls: Biden up by 5 in Florida, 7 in Pennsylvania
Source: Politico
Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump in the two largest swing states in next months election, Florida and Pennsylvania, according to the first reliable public polls conducted after the candidates debate earlier this week.
The surveys, from The New York Times and Siena College, show Biden with slight but consistent edges in the two states: He leads Trump by 5 points in Florida, 47 percent to 42 percent, and 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49 percent to 42 percent.
Bidens leads are within each polls margin of error, but taken together point to an advantage for the Democratic nominee. The surveys were conducted Wednesday through Friday, after the debate in Cleveland on Tuesday but mostly before Trumps coronavirus diagnosis early Friday morning.
Neither the Times nor Siena broke out results by day, but pollster and journalist Nate Cohn wrote on the Times website that data provided modest evidence of a shift in favor of
Biden in interviews on Friday, including in a still-ongoing survey in Arizona that will be released later.
Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/post-debate-polls-biden-up-by-5-in-florida-7-in-pennsylvania/ar-BB19FIYK?li=BB141NW3&ocid=DELLDHP
ffr
(22,672 posts)gabeana
(3,166 posts)Trump is stuck at 42 in both polls
riversedge
(70,334 posts)Post-debate poll finds Biden with leads in two key states
© Getty Images
Democratic nominee Joe Biden leads President Trump by sizable margins among voters in Pennsylvania and Florida following Tuesday nights combative presidential debate, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll published Saturday.
The survey found that Biden leads Trump in Pennsylvania by 7 percentage points, garnering 49 percent support among voters in the state, compared to Trumps 42 percent. Biden leads Trump in Florida by a slightly smaller margin, 47 percent support to 42 percent, respectively.
Survey interviews began Wednesday prior to the announcement early Friday morning that the president and first lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19.
There was a modest shift in favor of Biden during survey interviews conducted on Friday following the news of Trumps diagnosis, according to the Times.
The races in the two battleground states, both of which Trump won narrowly in the 2016 election, had been particularly close prior to Tuesdays debate, although an ABC-Washington Post poll released Tuesday showed Biden ahead by 9 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
Last week, RealClearPolitics reported that Biden had a 1.3-point lead in Florida, down from 8.4 percentage points in July.
The Times-Siena College poll also found that only 21 percent of likely voters across the two swing states said Trump won the debate Tuesday, with 65 percent disapproving of the presidents conduct throughout the evening............
..https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519493-post-debate-poll-finds-biden-with-leads-in-two-key-states
riversedge
(70,334 posts)65 percent disapproving of the presidents conduct throughout the evening............
..https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/519493-post-debate-poll-finds-biden-with-leads-in-two-key-states
GatoMoteado
(86 posts)...i wish biden could pick up a little more steam right now and cut into the undecideds.
BumRushDaShow
(129,636 posts)What? The 7 point lead by Biden in PA is "within [the] poll's margin of error"?
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)In essence, double the MOE. If the lead is less than that number, it's within MOE.
But, the polling in PA has been remarkably consistent with Biden at 50 and Trump in the low mid-40s.
BTW, in my red area, I'm seeing more Biden signs pop up. I'm not seeing big additions to the Trump signs that have been out.
BumRushDaShow
(129,636 posts)which makes them almost meaningless. But then we are coming down to the final weeks and I suppose they are what they are. It will be difficult to really know who will actually show up as a "likely voter".
DeminPennswoods
(15,290 posts)The pollsters use a statistical formula for figuring out how many people the need to interview for a valid sample meaning more doesn't mean better.
BumRushDaShow
(129,636 posts)because you'd have a better chance to reach a more diverse set of opinions. The fact that many polls failed in 2016 due to misreading who was considered a "likely voter", is an example of that. And that includes people like poor Sam Wang, who I watched "eat a bug" (live) due to some issues with modeling statistical aggregations and misreading what might happen.
Gallup's 2012 spectacular poll failure is why they no longer do head-to-head Presidential election polls.
reACTIONary
(5,788 posts)... for each additional participant.
For very large populations the cost-benefit starts to go down at around a sample size of 1000. That's why national polls are almost always sample about a thousand participants.