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BumRushDaShow

(129,569 posts)
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 04:50 PM Nov 2020

Democrats clinch House control, even as their majority is on track to shrink.

Source: New York Times

Democrats held onto their House majority on Tuesday, securing the 218 seats they need to maintain control of the chamber even as they lost at least a half a dozen seats amid unexpected headwinds that left them with a narrower hold on power.

Democrats began the cycle expecting to expand their majority, betting that suburban voters’ distaste for President Trump would trickle down the ballot, allowing them to make inroads in conservative districts and protect many of their own vulnerable incumbents. But as of Tuesday, they had picked up just a single Republican-held seat, and had lost as many as seven in rural and working-class districts where Mr. Trump is popular, including in New Mexico and Oklahoma in what amounted to a series of stunning and painful defeats.

In those races, Republican women led the way, flipping key seats in Iowa, California and South Carolina, and positioning their party to break the record for the highest number of women ever to serve in their conference. Representative Cheri Bustos of Illinois, the chairwoman of the House Democrats’ campaign arm, barely eked out a victory in her own district, and told colleagues on Monday that she would not seek another term and that she was “gutted at the losses we sustained.”

But many Democratic incumbents in competitive districts, like Representatives Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and Jared Golden of Maine, also narrowly hung onto their seats. “These were seats that were in Trump country, and we were able to hold onto 30 seats that are Trump districts, and that’s no small feat,” Ms. Bustos said.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/10/us/joe-biden-trump/democrats-clinch-house-control-even-as-their-majority-is-on-track-to-shrink



As a note, in a number of states, we have been running in districts that were gerrymandered in 2010/2011 and those seats won't be undone until the current census is completed and states start the redistricting process. So it has been an amazing run in districts drawn to keep us out.

Also I heard on the radio that of the women elected, I believe that after the 2018 election, there were 88 Democrats and only 13 GOP, where the GOP women are finally getting a few more. But as much as the NYT is gushing over it, it's a disgrace and tells you something.
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DeminPennswoods

(15,290 posts)
1. It's actually an amazing Dem performance
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 04:53 PM
Nov 2020

considering how cultists came out from under every rock, inside every crevice and up from every hole to vote.

BumRushDaShow

(129,569 posts)
3. And the seats in GOP states were gerrymandered specifically to keep them out
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 05:05 PM
Nov 2020

We only got ours un-gerrymandered thanks to having Wolf there, a majority-(D) State Supreme Court, and excellent arguments by the entities that argued, both in the state and federal courts, that the congressional districts as drawn, violated the state constitution because they were not "compact and contiguous".

And we were able to retain all of those new freshmen as well, from what I have understood (Lamb, Dean, Wild, and Houlahan).

abqtommy

(14,118 posts)
9. I've got to rely on my basic rule that if there's a reTHUG involved in an election then there's
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 05:58 PM
Nov 2020

cheating and ratfucking going on!

ffr

(22,672 posts)
11. We're kind of in the middle of a constitutional crises. You might want to rethink swearing in more
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 06:13 PM
Nov 2020

GrOPers until such time as the formal transition processes BEGIN. And thus far, even Pompeo says there will be no Biden presidency.

George II

(67,782 posts)
12. So far it appears (and correct me if I'm wrong) the seats that we lost were seats that we flipped...
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 06:55 PM
Nov 2020

....in 2018.

According to the NY Times there are still 16 races remaining, Democrats are ahead in five* and republicans in 11.

That could put us at 223 to 212. One of the 201 the republicans have won is a runoff between two republicans.

As of today, the house is 232 Democrats, 197 republicans, 1 libertarian and 5 vacancies. The libertarian is Justin Amash, who will be replaced by a republican.


*One good thing, not reflected yet in the NY Times numbers, is that Lauren Underwood was declared the winner today, of of those five in which we're ahead.

Calista241

(5,586 posts)
13. The census and redistricting isn't going to change anytime soon.
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 07:07 PM
Nov 2020

The Utopia ushered in the Democratic Party has a problem, despite winning the Presidential Popular Vote by a large margin we lost the balance of the "down ticket" races. Republicans made gains in House, will likely retain control of the Senate, and managed to expand their control of various state governments.

Even worse, CNN exit polling indicated a little less than 2/3rds of the people who voted for Biden were voting for him, they were voting against Trump. So up to 1/3rd of that nearly 75 million person vote tally he amassed has "unknown politics" for him to address, they could be moderates, they could be Republican Never-Trumpers (which is reflected in the "down-ballot" of several states), or they could be extreme left-wingers who voted Biden to ensure Trump went down.

Biden won the Presidential election in Pennsylvania, but we managed to lose both state houses yet again. How does that happen?

This article from The Atlantic summarizes my view:
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/democrats-2020-elections-state-legislatures/617047/

I guess in summary that I'm thrilled that Trump lost, but we got whooped again elsewhere.

DeminPennswoods

(15,290 posts)
15. In Pennsylvania, the state house districts are
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 07:22 PM
Nov 2020

heavily gerry-mandered, mostly to provide incumbent protection, but got more partisan after former Speaker John Perzel re-did them after the 2010 census.

The Senate districts are less so, but only because there are fewer state senators, 50, as opposed to 203 house members.

BumRushDaShow

(129,569 posts)
17. There is one big difference between 2010/2011 and 2020/2021 in PA and it's
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 07:42 PM
Nov 2020

this guy (D) -



instead of this guy (R) -



So the GOP can't steamroll a gerrymander through again like they did the last go-around.

And remember that even though they had to redraw the state assembly lines several times in 2011/2012 due to extreme gerrymandering for those seats as well, the final state Supreme Court outcome kept it skewed. And that's because it happened under the GOP trifecta that included the PA State Supreme Court, which was majority (R) back then.

But NOW, the PA State Supreme Court is 5 (D) - 2 (R), and will be that way until at least 2025. So rather than having no control like what happened in 2010/2011, Democrats actually control 2 Branches of PA government (Executive and Judicial).

bucolic_frolic

(43,329 posts)
16. We lost in rural places? It's a religion vs science issue
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 07:33 PM
Nov 2020

Republican women work the churches in those areas. Elsewhere educated people prevail.

And Republicans overperformed this year. We beat the bushes for votes for Biden-Harris. That included Republicans. Fortunate because that helped Biden win. Unfortunate because while Republicans were at the polls, they voted Republican down-ballot. Republicans did, after all, outperform Trump in many places.

BumRushDaShow

(129,569 posts)
18. I remember back before the 2018 election
Tue Nov 10, 2020, 07:57 PM
Nov 2020

there was a lot of media pundit speculation that Democrats would maybe get 20 - 25 seats max. However when we got 40, it was literally an epiphany and definitely not expected. Many seats were in gerrymandered marginal districts but it sent a message and it brought the Speaker's gavel back to Democrats after 8 years of being out of power in that chamber.

With the 2020 election and literal record turnout, the odds were shifted, but considering these races were run in the same gerrymandered districts, any outcome that preserves are majority is a testament to that enhanced GOTV effort.

The hope now is that when redistricting takes place the next couple years, we can get some fairer lines drawn and I know people like Eric Holder and his All on the Line organization as well as NDRC/NRAF/OFA, are working to push for fair redistricting.

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