Democrat Jon Ossoff Claims Victory Over David Perdue In Georgia Runoff

[brooklynite]

Source: NPR

Democrat Jon Ossoff — who as of 9 a.m. ET Wednesday leads Republican David Perdue by about 16,000 votes in the Georgia runoff that could give Democrats control of the U.S. Senate — claimed victory Wednesday. The Associated Press, which NPR relies on for its results, has not yet called the contest.

"It is with humility that I thank the people of Georgia for electing me to serve you in the United States Senate," Ossoff said in remarks Wednesday morning.

Perdue, whose Senate term expired earlier this week, has not conceded the race.

"Everybody who cast your ballot, everybody who put your faith and confidence in our democracy's capacity to deliver the representation that we deserve — whether you were for me, or against me — I'll be for you in the U.S. Senate," Ossoff said. "I will serve all the people of the state."

Read more: https://www.npr.org/2021/01/06/952417689/democrat-jon-ossoff-claims-victory-over-david-perdue-in-georgia-runoff

[efhmc]

1. When will he be declared the winner???

[brooklynite]

6. Remaining votes are expected to drop this afternoon.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

2. Congratulations, Senator Osoff!

[disndat]

55. DUers,

Please spell Ossoff's name correctly, now that he is officially Senator of the U.S.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

56. Posts like yours make me really reluctant to post a lot of the time

I never know when I'm going to get slapped down, even for posting something positive/innocuous. So I misspelled a name. What a crime to be held up for ridicule for.

[UpInArms]

3. Woot! Woot!

[Frustratedlady]

4. I hope he isn't jumping the gun. Aren't there still a lot of mail-in ballots yet to go, plus the

military on Friday?

I hope he knows what he's talking about and not just excited it might happen.

[DeminPennswoods]

5. There are mail ballots, but even in R counties, these

tend to favor Dems.

[zentrum]

10. Agree. It's too early.

[disndat]

11. The pollsters say

there is no path for Perdue to overcome Ossoff 's lead.

[efhmc]

14. Is that because of the number of votes still out? Because there are not enough

votes left for Perdue to overcome Ossoff's lead?

[pat_k]

40. NYTimes forecast based on where estimated remaining votes are.

NYTimes range of estimated win percentage is Ossoff +1.9 to Ossoff

[disndat]

16. I heard it on MSNBC this morning

(not Kondracki) the pollster said the uncounted votes in Democratic-leaning districts favor Osoff.

[onetexan]

29. yup, but that won't stop Purdue from challenging Ossoff's win instead of conceding gracefully.

Another bad behaving GOP, no surprise.

[pat_k]

41. If win is by less than 0.5, it's his right to request a recount.

We need to take care denigrating any candidate for requesting a recount. With voter suppression as it is, and continued discriminatory practices in determining legitimacy of signatures and making other judgements, if Ossoff lost by less than 0.5, I would want him to request a recount/audit.

There is no automatic recount law in Georgia, but if the win is by less than 0.5, the losing candidate has the right to request a recount.

If, the win is by more than 0.5, or if Purdue's loss were confirmed by a recount, and he followed DT's lead and still refused to concede, then he deserves derision.

[karynnj]

18. If my memory is correct, the number of added military ballots arriving Wednesday through Friday

in November was very small. Also, I think it was overseas and military. I know many places were speaking of as high as 17,000, but I think in November it was closer to 1000. Not to mention, it was not overwhelmingly Republican - I think it actually broke for Biden. AT least several years ago, having a passport was extremely more likely for Democrats than Republicans. Not to mention, ex pats would have seen these 4 years - many with horror.

(This is from memory because I can't find a link that stated - after it happened - exactly how big either of those two pieces that are counted if postmarked before yesterday and arrived by Friday as GA law specifies. Note that when Gabriel Stirling spoke a few days ago refuting the Trump charges made in the phone call, he spoke of the military ballots that were returned by email as one reason for the "pristine ballots". (Poll workers had to print the emails on properly sized ballots before they were counted.)

I would assume that the only ballots that will be added on Friday are the mailed in ballots that came in during those 3 days - very likely a small percent of total overseas/military votes.

As to jumping the gun, the NYT needle - which I think is behind a paywall - has its estimate of Ossoff's final margin at 1.1. In the details, especially the map that lets you see vote remaining by location and type of vote (mail in, early, day of) AND their estimate of how that remaining vote will divide between Ossof and Perdue.

Perdue himself has said he will win. I suspect that his backed on nothing other than Trump like conspiracy theories. Given that Ossof is actually ahead and likely to maybe double his margin.

[Frustratedlady]

20. Thanks. I think you are right on the 17K number, but I was thinking of the recount number, as well.

Last time I looked, his lead wasn't big enough to overcome the 17K (if it leaned Repuke) and not get caught up in the recount number.

Of course, I want him to win, just not jump the gun. I hope he had good counsel on his decision to claim a win.

It will be so good to get rid of this queasy feeling in my stomach. Seeing McConnell wither and fall should be enough to do it.

[scarletwoman]

32. Georgia doesn't have an automatic recount, so there's no "recount number."

Recounts can be requested either by the losing candidate or by an election official, but it's not mandatory.

I looked this up late last night, but I didn't keep the link. It was a State of Georgia web page, however, so I know it's accurate.

[karynnj]

39. Before the Friday additions, he may well be up by 40,000

This number was computed looking at the NYT map that showed what was outstanding by county and type of vote. They give their estimate of the split. Throughout the night as votes came in, they had a chart that showed their net percent vs the actual, and they were very close even in the beginning. (I don't know if they dynamically changed their expectation as voting progressed, but it is likely not far off.)

In addition, there are provisional ballots - but they lean Democratic. So, EVEN if there really were 17000 military ballots and they ALL went to Perdue (2 very unlikely assumptions) -- he would still be over by more than a half of one percent. Not to mention, even if there were a recount, it is not likely to make a difference.

[rocktivity]

33. Hopefully, he has it on some kind of official authority

Last edited Mon Feb 19, 2024, 01:04 PM - Edit history (2)

Biden looked a little brazen by posting his transition team Web page less than 24 hours after the polls closed with GA, NC, and PA in particular still unaccounted for. I think he did so having been reliably assured that WI, NV and AZ -- which got him to 270 electoral votes -- were in the bag.

ON EDIT: Official authority accomplished, LOL

Link to tweet

rocktivity

[myohmy2]

7. Congratulations!!

...now let the work begin...

...and not moment too soon...

[Cha]

8. Well Jon must be pretty darn

Confident he WON!!

[AllyCat]

9. Yay!! So encouraged after last night!

We must continue to work with these new, energized, and SMART voters and organizers if we are going to keep our democracy intact. Everybody in, nobody out. That is the way to move our country forward!

Congratulations to these 2 fine candidates, to Sen. McConnell on his new title as Sen Minority Leader, and to the FANTASTIC organizers on the ground, led by the goddess Stacey Abrams to get this done for the U.S.A.!!

[ananda]

12. I do suspect there might be a recount but..

Ossoff will definitely win.

[RVN VET71]

17. He's got to expand his lead to at least 0.5% or the recount is automatic.

But recent history is in favor of him prevailing. Georgia’s efforts to suppress the vote have not -- to my knowledge -- extended to cheating on the vote count. The GOP there has been content with removing people from the registers and passing obfuscatory laws lacing obstacles in the way of African American voters.

So if it comes down to a recount, I trust the results and only hope they confirm Ossoff -- which they will!

[ananda]

19. Yeah, it's at .4 right now.

I hope it expands.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

21. Can Purdue pay for a recount anyway if the final is outside the .5%?

If so, I wouldn’t put it past him just so McConnell can tie up the seat longer.

[Politicub]

25. He can always ask

Perdue’s term ended on Sunday.

[Hassin Bin Sober]

27. I know. But you know Mitch will tie it up if he can...

“While the legal process plays out”

They kept Al Franken out for 6 months

[Politicub]

28. They will probably try. I don't know the similarities and

differences between the two races.

[scarletwoman]

34. No, there is no automatic recount in Georgia - see below:

https://georgia.gov/election-recount-rules-georgia

Election Recount Rules in Georgia

State law does not require an automatic recount of votes. However, based on Georgia H.B. 316 (2019), a candidate can request a recount if the margin is less than or equal to 0.5%. That request has to be made within two business days of the results being certified.

Other common situations where a recount may be requested include:

If there is a suspected error or discrepancy in the returns, an election official can ask for a recount.

If a candidate for federal or state office petitions the Secretary of State regarding a suspected error or discrepancy, the Secretary of State can ask for a recount.

[ffr]

13. Nate Silver predicted 15,000 based on his models last night on ABC

when Perdue had a 1,888 advantage, citing the more accurate polling data coming from Georgia.

[karynnj]

36. Looking at the NYT map (behind paywall) that 15,000 would likely now be higher

The areas left are almost all in very Democratic areas. The NYT shows their anticipated split between Ossoff and Perdue by county. At this point looking at them and computing the net, Ossoff might end up over 40,000 ahead.

Also, Gabriel Stirling in his press conference this morning said he does not think Ossoff will be under the mandatory recount level. (I don't know the GA rules for Perdue to still ask for a recount. Not to mention, as was said repeatedly on Biden's victories, recounts do not change results by tens of thousands.)

[DeminPennswoods]

46. This morning Kornacki estimated that Ossoff could win by

double what Biden had (24k vs 12k).

[oro]

15. He's got it

The mail in ballots should break Democratic by a large margin. Now Biden will be able to break Mitch the Turtle's stranglehold on policy.

[BlueIdaho]

22. Works for me!

Congratulations Senator.

[twodogsbarking]

23. Oh look

we found 16,000 votes.

[yaesu]

26. 17,025 more votes despite all the voter suppression that went on, pretty impressive!

I guess Perdue can go back to making a living committing securities fraud.

[yaesu]

24. Congrats to Sen. Jon Ossoff !

[beachbumbob]

30. He has every right to declare victory buts going to be a while before he is the winner

[Sogo]

31. An excellent statement by Jon.

Fingers crossed that nothing goes against what looks inevitable at this point.


(My donations to these candidates paid off!)

[George II]

35. So far counting today has increased Ossoff's lead by about 1,000 votes to about 17,000.

[Tetrachloride]

37. 17,567 vote lead for Democrat Jon Ossoff

https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-election-results/


98% of Expected Vote Reporting
Candidate Party Total Votes Pct.
J. Ossoff Dem. 2,213,099 50%
D. Perdue* Rep. 2,195,532 50%

[rocktivity]

38. From the top GA election official's lips to Biden's ears

Link to tweet

rocktivity

[peacebuzzard]

42. Thank you Great Spirit!!

been so busy this morning I missed this great news.

Hooray indeed, to add to our total flush!

[Alacritous Crier]

43. Sweet!

[Woodycall]

44. Anybody out there with art skills?

I need to see a cartoon of McConnell as a turtle set on the top of a wooden fence post...

[BobTheSubgenius]

45. A great day for him for Georgia, for the United States, and for the world.

Everything can start improving now.

[Yeehah]

47. Indeed

The good people of Georgia saved the world.

[LudwigPastorius]

48. Oh, hell yeah!

[BlueWavePsych]

49. Woohoo!

[Denvermosaic]

50. Good to have two Democratic senators from my state, GA.

[crickets]

51. This fellow Georgian could not agree more. It's a happy day.

[Denvermosaic]

52. hi

[Liberal and Proud]

53. Wonderful, just wonderful!!

[superheadshot19997]

54. mitch has no power

good day for america