Germany Launches Election Year With Losses for Merkel's Party in Two States

[brooklynite]

Source: New York Times

BERLIN — Voters in two southwestern German states punished Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative party in regional elections on Sunday, early results showed, turning from the Christian Democrats in record numbers amid the coronavirus pandemic and a growing scandal over lawmakers who accepted kickbacks for selling masks.

The elections in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate were the first in a year that will see voting for new legislators in four more states, and for the country’s Parliament. In September, Germans will choose a new chancellor and government to take over Europe’s largest economy after 16 years under Ms. Merkel’s leadership.

Projections based on partial vote counts showed the conservative party poised to lose support in both states. The results pointed to challenges the party faces in trying to restore confidence lost after three conservative lawmakers — including one representing a district in Baden-Württemberg — were forced to resign after revelations they had received compensation worth tens of thousands of euros for arranging the sale of medical-grade masks to municipalities when supplies were tight.

“Today was not a good election evening for the Christian Democratic Union,” Paul Ziemiak, secretary general of the party, said Sunday at a news conference after the polls had closed. “We wanted to see better results.”

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/14/world/europe/germany-elections.html

[Jonah Ide]

1. The Greens, by contrast, made gains in both states,

reflecting the party’s steadily growing popularity. That could help it emerge as the strongest force in the September national election, raising the prospect that Germany could see its first Greens chancellor.

“Under Chancellor Angela Merkel, the conservatives have built up an image of being Germany’s indispensable natural government party; this image is fading,” said Arne Jungjohann, a political scientist who is close to the Greens party. “The conservatives no longer have a lock on the chancellorship.”

The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, also suffered losses in both states, preliminary results showed, although the party remained the third-largest force in each of the states.

Ultraliberals advance, neo-Nazis decline. Yes!

[DFW]

2. This was more a status quo confirmation than anything else

The corruption scandal hurt Merkel's CDU, but it didn't alter the landscape hugely. This was a pair of local elections that confirmed two very popular local governors in their positions. In neither case did the far-right AfD get kicked out of the state government, just as in neither case did the far-left Die Linken make it in. In Germany, if you don't get at least 5% of the vote, your party is not represented, whether in local, state or federal elections.

In Rheinland-Pfalz, a very able and popular Social Democrat got just under 40% (this is considered a huge victory, just to give you an idea how different things are here). No way does her party get to rule alone. The RLP Social Democrats will have to decide who they want to solicit for their coalition partners. The options are Merkel's CDU, who got 31%, or else a combination of the Greens (10%) along with the unreliable pro-business Free Democrats (6%). The rightist AfD still got 9%, nearly as much as the greens.

In Baden-Württemberg, a relatively affluent state, with Mercedes-base Stuttgart as its capital, the popular governor, a member of the Greens, led his party to a 32.6% "victory." This is a record high, though not anything huge by U.S. standards. Their popular governor is 72, and is considered a member of their pragmatic (realo) wing. Merkel's CDU got a dismal record low of 24.1%, a result that can be laid directly to both the corruption scandal as well as the slow progress in vaccination against Covid-19. The Social Democrats sank to a crushing 11%, which borders on extinction for them. They didn't even get enough to form a coalition with the Greens.

In B-W, the AfD sank from 15% last time to 9.7% this time--still way more than enough to get them back into parliament, and just barely under the Social Democrats. The pro-business FDP increased their share to over 10%--no big deal for a major party, but good for them. They call themselves "Die Liberalen," but they are anything but in our understanding of the term. When Merkel won the last federal election, a coalition was planned for Merkel's party, the Greens, and the FDP. The FDP pulled out at the last minute, because they were against the plans of Merkel and the Greens to concentrate on renewable energy as opposed to fossil/nuclear. Since Merkel nixed new nuclear installations years ago, this meant mostly fossil fuel, which Germany relies heavily on, being somewhat behind in the effort to make renewables the main source of energy. This forced Merkel back into the unwieldy coalition with the SPD that still rules today.

So, in short, the Social Democrats, with their local version of Merkel, are at 39% in Rheinland-Pfalz, and are hunting for a coalition partner. The Greens in Baden-Württemberg are at 32.7%, and are also looking at coalition partners. Led by a pragmatist, Winfried Kretschmann, they are openly seeking talks with "all democratic partners," i.e. no extremist parties, and excluding no one else. Since the far left "Die Linken" didn't even make it in to either state government, this means no talks with the far right AfD, which is as it should be. Kretschmann in Baden-Württemberg, led a two-party coalition with Merkel's CDU as junior partner for the last legislative period. While this may seem surprising on the surface, the business connections of the CDU, and their worker-friendly moderate conservatism has meshed well with the Greens here. With big companies like Mercedes based there, along with Merkel's strong environment-friendly stance, it was a partnership that has worked well. They have the seats to continue it, but, like I said, Kretschmann is a pragmatist. He will hold talks with the SPD and the FDP if, for no other reason, to make sure that the CDU doesn't get too demanding in their coalition negotiations. With Merkel retiring, and everyone knowing it, the CDU no longer has a nationally popular charismatic leader, and risk not naming the next chancellor. If Kretschmann can use this as leverage to get a pliable CDU partner instead of a shaky, untrustworthy FDP, who will never select a chancellor from their ranks, he will. The FDP sabotaged Merkel in 2017, and no one in the CDU, Greens or SPD has forgotten it.

With the maturing into a party capable of governing, the Greens have become a reasonable choice in elections. They have taken over from the tired SPD as Germany's version of our Democratic Party. There were no "ultra" anythings winning in these two local elections. Considering it's Germany, and not Luxembourg, this is a good thing.