Q3 GDP: Economic activity decelerated to 2.0% annualized rate amid Delta variant, supply concerns

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo Finance

Q3 GDP: Economic activity decelerated to 2.0% annualized rate amid Delta variant, supply concerns

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, October 28, 2021, 8:31 AM

The U.S. economy expanded at its slowest clip in over a year in the third quarter, with a reopening surge in activity quickly beginning to fade.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis released its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GPD) on Wednesday. Here were the main metrics economists from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 2.0% vs. 2.6% expected, 6.7% in Q2

-- Personal consumption: 1.6% vs. 0.9% expected, 12.0% in Q2

-- Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 4.5% vs. 4.5% expected, 6.1% in Q2

The deceleration in economic activity coincided with the resurgence in Delta variant-related coronavirus cases in the July through September quarter. Positive impacts from stimulus checks and other economic relief delivered by the government earlier this year also dwindled. And supply chain challenges have capped companies' abilities to keep up with consumer demand.

Consumption, the largest component of U.S. GDP comprising about two-thirds of overall economic activity, was expected to slow to a 0.8% rate in the third quarter, also marking the weakest pace since the second quarter of 2020.

"The pace of GDP growth is likely to have decelerated substantially in Q3, a reflection of the Delta-variant wave exacerbating labor and material shortages, transportation bottlenecks, and accelerated price gains," Sam Bullard, Wells Fargo senior economist, wrote in a note earlier this week. "Taking a look at the major components, consumer spending is expected to drive most of the slowdown as supply shortages and rising COVID infection rates lead to decline in goods spending and a moderation in services spending."

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Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gross-domestic-product-gdp-q3-us-2021-181740802.html

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gross-domestic-product-gdp-q3-us-2021-181740802.html

Yahoo Finance
Q3 GDP preview: Economic activity likely 'decelerated substantially' amid Delta variant, supply concerns

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Wed, October 27, 2021, 2:17 PM

The U.S. economy likely expanded at its slowest clip in over a year in the third quarter, with a reopening surge in activity quickly beginning to fade.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product (GPD) on Wednesday. Here are the main metrics economists are expecting to see from the print, based on consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

GDP quarter-over-quarter, annualized: 2.6% expected, 6.7% in Q2

Personal consumption: 0.8% expected, 12.0% in Q2

Core personal consumption expenditures, quarter-over-quarter: 4.4% expected, 6.1% in Q2

The expected deceleration in economic activity is set to coincide with the resurgence in Delta variant-related coronavirus cases in the July through September quarter. Positive impacts from stimulus checks and other economic relief delivered by the government earlier this year are also set to dwindle. And supply chain challenges have capped companies' abilities to keep up with consumer demand.

Consumption, the largest component of U.S. GDP comprising about two-thirds of overall economic activity, is expected to slow to a 0.8% rate in the third quarter, also marking the weakest pace since the second quarter of 2020.

"The pace of GDP growth is likely to have decelerated substantially in Q3, a reflection of the Delta-variant wave exacerbating labor and material shortages, transportation bottlenecks, and accelerated price gains," Sam Bullard, Wells Fargo senior economist, wrote in a note earlier this week. "Taking a look at the major components, consumer spending is expected to drive most of the slowdown as supply shortages and rising COVID infection rates lead to decline in goods spending and a moderation in services spending."

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[gab13by13]

1. Not good news at all.

There were no rolls of paper towels at my local grocery store yesterday.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. WaPo's article finally popped up

U.S. economy grew at annual rate of 2% in the third quarter, as delta variant pulled back progress

By Rachel Siegel and Andrew Van Dam

Today at 8:31 a.m. EDT

The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, in the latest sign of how the delta variant of the coronavirus held back the economic recovery. The gross domestic product figures for the July-through-September period, released Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, came in far lower than the booming 6.7 percent growth in the previous quarter, reflecting an economy struggling anew amid the delta variant surge, which tore through unvaccinated communities in August and September and is only easing now.

The third quarter was the economy’s worst since the pandemic devastated the economy in the first half of 2020, as global supply chain backlogs, higher prices and labor shortages continue to bedevil the recovery. Economists, policymakers and consumers alike had hoped that widely available vaccines would help bolster the recovery going into the fall. But the coronavirus surge held back progress and underscored how intertwined the pandemic and economy remain 21 months after the country’s first confirmed case of the virus.

Still, the economy has more than eclipsed its pre-pandemic high, after adjusting for inflation, and growth for the year is still projected to approach 6 percent — its fastest rate in almost four decades.Economists are also optimistic about the final stretch of 2021. Senior economic officials in the Biden administration note that new cases are down nearly 60 percent since the peak of the delta variant surge. Already, consumer confidence is rebounding with a 3.6 percent increase in October, after falling all three months of the third quarter, according to a Tuesday release from the Conference Board.

And consumer spending is expected to ramp up around the holiday season. Biden and congressional leaders for weeks have said they are working on a revised package to bring the topline spending total down from the initial $3.5 trillion package they proposed earlier this year. The point of the negotiations has been to win the votes of key Democratic centrists concerned about runaway spending, without alienating libereals whose support is also crucial.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-to-announce-democratic-agreement-on-social-spending-deal/2021/10/28/2781863c-37d3-11ec-91dc-551d44733e2d_story.html

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. Thanks for the link. Yahoo! took Emily McCormick off the initial jobless claims beat and

put her on this story.

And good morning.

[BumRushDaShow]

4. Ahh okay...

And good morning to you too! I think I may need some more coffee this morning.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

5. From the source:

October 28, 2021

Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021, following an increase of 6.7 percent in the second quarter. The deceleration in real GDP in the third quarter was led by a slowdown in consumer spending. A resurgence of COVID-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country. In the third quarter, government assistance payments in the form of forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased.

Current Release

[Johnny2X2X]

6. A reminder on Trump

Donald Trump was a total and complete economic disaster for the United States. He had the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover and left the economy with the worst year for growth since 1947.

So Joe got the economy growing again and has delivered more job growth in his first year than any President in history. The pandemic is effecting the supply chain, so growth fell to 2%, which is still better than what Trump did over 4 years.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

7. GDP disappoints in Q3 as supply chain takes a toll on growth

Yahoo Finance Video

GDP disappoints in Q3 as supply chain takes a toll on growth

Thu, October 28, 2021, 10:21 AM

Q3 GDP quarter-over-quarter came in at 2.0% vs. 2.6% expected. Yahoo Finance's Emily McCormick breaks down the data.

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