Abbott leads O'Rourke by 15 points in early poll of Texas governor's race

[left-of-center2012]

Source: The Hill

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has a 15-point edge over his main Democratic rival, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas), according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, a staggering lead that underscores the challenges ahead for Democrats in the state next year.

In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Abbott leads O’Rourke 52 percent to 37 percent. He also has stronger support among voters from his own party. Ninety percent of Republicans say they back Abbott, while 87 percent of Democrats support O’Rourke in the race.

Democrats are facing historical headwinds nationally in 2022, given that midterm elections are typically seen as referendums on the party in power in Washington. But the Quinnipiac poll also showed O’Rourke’s favorability underwater among Texas voters. Thirty-six percent say they have a favorable opinion of the former congressman compared to 47 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of him. Another 16 percent say they have not heard enough about him.

Abbott’s approval rating has also seen a recovery in recent months. Fifty-three percent of voters say they approve of his job performance while 41 percent disapprove. That’s a marked improvement from September when his approval rating was underwater, 44 percent to 47 percent, according to Quinnipiac polling. By comparison, 52 percent of voters say they have a favorable view of Abbott, while 42 percent report an unfavorable opinion of the incumbent governor.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/585123-abbott-leads-orourke-by-15-points-in-early-poll-of-texas-governors-race

[Lonestarblue]

1. Unfortunately, Beto shot himself in the foot by resurrecting his comment on guns.

I will continue to support him, but that was an unforced error that will cost him among Texas voters. We Democrats need to understand that the battle against gun proliferation has been lost. That doesn’t mean we don’t focus on winning the war, but you have to get elected to win the war and you can’t get elected if you talk about taking away people’s guns.

It’s similar to Republicans’ efforts to take away abortion. They have been working on it for decades, and they created emotional issues around the their pro-life narrative. Never mind that most of what they say are lies—they have worked to turn people against abortion and they are very close to achieving their goal. They did it be being elected in as many places as possible so they could gerrymander as many states as possible to get and hold power. Not a hard concept to understand.

[FBaggins]

6. He shot himself in that foot (for purposes of this race) back when he ran for president

He really didn't have a choice in this case. Trying to backpedal and change his position would have been at least as disastrous. Given that (along with presumably actually believing it's the right policy), the right thing to do was to get it out of the way as soon as possible so that it wasn't an open question six months from now when the voters start paying attention to the race.

[The Mouth]

12. It has to go into history as being one of the most tone-deaf statements ever

by a politician, at least in the context of an election.

Even dumber than McAuliffe saying words to the effect of that parents shouldn't have a say in what the schools teach kids.

Total political suicide regardless of what one thinks of the issue.

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

65. Equally tone-deaf is Amy Coney Barrett's "Just leave the baby at the firehouse" solution

to the complex problem of abortion. Obviously, her favorite book is Dickens' "A Christmas Carol," where Scrooge laments, “Have they no refuge or resource? Are there no prisons? Are there no workhouses?”

TFG appointed three justices who are as sociopathic as he is.

[The Mouth]

66. No kidding

I get livid every time I think about how Hillary was backstabbed and robbed. WE could have had three good, solid progressive justices.

Love your Dickens reference.

[rownesheck]

21. How come republicans

can say what they are going to do like ban abortion, build a wall, give massive tax cuts to the ultra wealthy, and no one says they shot themselves in the foot? Why is it that when Democrats say what they are going to do, they ruined their political careers?

Republicans get elected even though they say out loud a ton of horrible shit they are going to do if elected. We need Democrats to start doing the same thing. I'm glad Beto doubled down on taking away bullshit guns that citizens should not own. If he doesn't win, fuck it. If we keep hammering away on taking away these bullshit guns, eventually we will turn the tide. Most people agree with taking them away.

[BlueTsunami2018]

25. We should have dropped the gun argument a long time ago.

It’s always been an albatross for us. It should have been dropped a long time ago. That fight is lost.

[rownesheck]

29. I'm still holding out hope.

The majority want stricter gun control. We'll get there. It might take 100 years, but we'll get there.

[Polybius]

53. You still think that there will be an America in 100 years?

I'm doubting 25.

[mahina]

67. Really? What do you think will exist instead?

[Polybius]

68. Several countries in its place

We're much too divided to stay as one country imo.

[mahina]

70. How do you think that would happen?

Do you think areas will secede and become separate nations?

Asking as I have ancestors on both sides of the Civil War.

[Polybius]

71. I would say a peaceful breakup

I think by 2040 we'll be even more divided and have a sure tight race for President. The losing side will have had enough, with mass protests unlike anything we've ever seen.

[LiberatedUSA]

72. We won't make it to 2040 before a break up happens.

Unless the filibuster is ended to fix things, this train is barreling down the track to some rough years ahead.

[mahina]

74. Disagree

Bad years and good years

Watch out for doomsayers

There’s a lot of good things happening too and hopefully things.

We are a country that may disagree on many things but there is no way we are dissolving as a nation. And I say this as a
part of the country that seeks sovereignty.

You know whose been weirdly active here? Russian men just out of the
military.

[madville]

58. The "majority" where though is important

In this poll Texans prefer Abbott to Beto almost 2-1 (60-33) on gun policy.

[madville]

57. Abbott beats Beto 60% to 33% on gun policy

In this same poll. Gun control is a losing issue for any Democratic candidate in Texas but Beto went way too far and after doubling down can’t backpedal from talking about confiscation at this point. It feels like his chances are over before the game even started.

[riversedge]

60. yes, the sacred gun wins most of the time.

[Skittles]

30. thank you

"Abbott shot himself in the foot advocating bounties on women".....how does that sound

[rpannier]

34. Because they don't say that in Democratic states if they're a legitimate candidate

Legitimate Republican candidates say those things in Alabama, Mississippi, Texas, etc. Not in California, Washington or Hawaii. If they do, they've screwed their campaigns and its acknowledged.
Look how far Youngkin slithered away from talking about his positions on abortion

[madville]

56. Because more Texans agree with Abbott than Beto

From this same poll:

Voters were asked who would do a better job handling six issues...

the economy: 60 percent say Abbott, while 32 percent say O'Rourke;
gun policy: 60 percent say Abbott, while 33 percent say O'Rourke;
the situation at the Mexican border: 58 percent say Abbott, while 35 percent say O'Rourke;
election laws: 55 percent say Abbott, while 40 percent say O'Rourke;
the response to the coronavirus: 54 percent say Abbott, while 39 percent say O'Rourke;
abortion: 49 percent say Abbott, while 41 percent say O'Rourke.

[duhneece]

73. I agree. Nt

[bearsfootball516]

2. He's probably got the best show of beating Abbott, but it's still a long shot.

He lost in 2018 when there was a massive blue wave going over the country. It's going to be even harder in 2022.

And like Lonestarblue said, he really hurt himself with the "Hell yes we're going to take away your guns" comment in the 2020 primary. The Texas GOP will be playing that nonstop on TV and the radio over the next year in all of their ads.

[TexasTowelie]

42. You have the order wrong.

He lost the senate race in Texas in 2018. He ran for president beginning in 2019 and withdrew later that year.

I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the Quinnipiac poll. The first time that they polled Texas was in 2018 for the governor's race and the Cruz - O'Rourke senate race. They had Cruz winning by nine points while the actual margin was only three points. They didn't poll in Texas in 2020. It usually takes a while for a polling organization to build up a track record so that they get their sampling models somewhat reliable. I'm not saying that this poll is totally worthless, but with their limited polling experience in Texas I wouldn't consider it to be reliable either. I'll consider their polls to be more meaningful if they conduct follow-up polls every second or third month.

It also looks like the entire slate of Democratic candidates for the statewide races will be stronger than it was in 2018 when Lupe Valdez headed the ticket. She was a disaster in the debates and it was apparent that she was unqualified in several aspects for the job. I don't know who he will have running for lieutenant governor and attorney general, but it will undoubtedly be an improvement compared to 2018.

[True Dough]

4. Wow! That's not promising at all

Hard to imagine a 15 (or 16 or more) point swing in our favor. Hopefully Abbott trips himself up in a major way.

[PatSeg]

8. You have to wonder,

how much worse can Abbott get before voters get a clue? How many people have to die on his watch?

[maxsolomon]

10. Umm... all of them?

Texas hates Liberals and Liberalism. They preferred Ted Fucking Cruz to O'Rourke, and nothing's changed since then.

Beto needs to get out of the way and let a gun-totin' Conservadem run. If there is such a thing.

[PatSeg]

22. Yes, I was thinking the same thing

I don't hold much hope for the voters in Texas.

I agree about Beto. I don't think he can win in Texas.

[TexasTowelie]

48. That person has until 6 p.m. on Monday of next week to file if they want to appear on the primary

ballot. I am not aware of anyone that fits the bill or has the name recognition to mount a challenge considering the primary is less than twelve weeks away.

[True Dough]

15. Same voters who don't seem overly concerned

about shivering through another winter storm and being faced with sky-high heating bills afterwards, should Mother Nature wreak havoc once again.

[PatSeg]

23. I know, it is absolutely bizarre

In a normal world, the power grid failure would be enough to sink anyone's political career, but we aren't living in a normal world.

[True Dough]

24. Yet we'll hear about Biden's Afghanistan pullout challenges from those on the right

forevermore. Including from Cancun Cruz.

[PatSeg]

32. Yep

Republicans have this routine down pat now and they aren't going change course. They just do whatever they want and whenever the focus is on them, they just brazenly deflect to a handful of prepackaged talking points. For some reason everything is so much worse when Democrats do it and if Democrats don't do anything wrong, they just make something up. The republican party has devolved into a bunch of nine year old boys playing, "I'm rubber, you're glue" on the playground.

They rarely even come up with any new or original ideas - just recycle the same ones over and over again. They sure did get a whole lot of mileage out of Benghazi and Hillary's emails.

[True Dough]

33. That's right

And they'll continue with their "Let's Go Brandon" chants until Biden leaves office. They're so proud of themselves for that one. Such a clever bunch!

[PatSeg]

63. No originality or creativity whatsoever

A party of ditto-machines set on autopilot. What is alarming is that it still works.

[rpannier]

35. If it happens again, they may turn on Abbott

But that will more than likely mean they'll turn on him in the primary

[Polybius]

54. People will hate him and still vote for him

Why? Fear of gun-control. Doesn't matter if Beto will be better for the economy.

[PatSeg]

64. Yes, the republican party

is full of one issue voters, incapable or unwilling to see past their own particular wants. If it isn't gun-control, it is abortion or whatever scare tactic that right-wing media is selling. They will blindly throw away pretty much everything just to safeguard the one issue they care about. Apparently, they are unable or too lazy to entertain more than one thought at a time.

[TexasTowelie]

47. Plenty of doubt regarding the polling.

See post #43 for a link that outlines what the numbers mean and how reliable they should be considered. My personal feeling is that the gap is probably about seven to eight points with enough undecided voters that the gap could be closed.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. Any chance of Horse-paste war criminal beating Abbott in the primary?

Would Beto do better against West?

[FBaggins]

7. Another poll or two like this one makes that unlikely

Abbott's popularity has taken some dents in recent months. But a primary challenger's biggest chance would come when that unpopularity caused him to look weak against a likely democratic opponent.

If Beto is really behind by anything close to this large a margin even while Abbott's numbers are weak... few Republicans are likely to bail on him in a primary. That might be over before it really gets started.

[Torchlight]

20. O'Rourke's numbers have increased from previous polling

and he's consistently hammering Abbott on the state's failure to provide electricity during the Feb. freeze killing more than 200 people. That freeze is still discussed almost daily on local news, whether it's referenced via weather reports, political reports or feel-good stories.

Each poll his numbers go up a few blinks, but each poll Abbott remains far ahead. O'Rourke's been crisscrossing the state the past two weeks and shows no sign of slowing down or letting up.

[madville]

50. What previous polling? He is down the last month

At the beginning of November he was around 6-9% behind Abbott, now it's 15% in this poll. How is that an increase?

[JohnSJ]

9. For Texas McConaughey was the best chance to beat Abbott. Beto did himself no favors

on his assault weapon views in Texas

[llashram]

11. we will see

[SoCalDavidS]

13. Can We Stop With The TX & FL Fools Errands?

The money is better spent elsewhere.

Sorry, but those states are NOT in play, either for President, Governor or Senators.

Other states are winnable, like GA, and that's where the money should go.

[Autumn]

14. I agree. Trying to get those two states is a complete waste of time, money and energy.

I have family in both states. They will vote for those creatins no matter what they do. God, guns and owning the Libs is all that matters. Put the focus elsewhere where we can win.

[walkingman]

17. I'm a Texan and I think you nailed it. It is depressing but I don't

see a way to change it anytime soon. I wish I knew the answer.

[JohnSJ]

16. I think we have a much better chance in Florida than Texas. I generally agree with your assessment,

and should focus on the blue wall, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, etc.

However, for a midterm election, we have to do a 50-state strategy, which recognizes that different areas require different campaigns.

Texas is not California

[madville]

59. Recycling Charlie Crist against Desantis

Is kind of disappointing, he’s lost his last two statewide attempts against Rubio and Rick Scott, doesn’t come in with any excitement or momentum. Florida is usually pretty close but the current atmosphere feels like Desantis will beat any of the likely Democrats by about 4-5 points.

[Jose Garcia]

19. While I agree with you about Texas,

Florida is definitely winnable with the right candidate. The elections for Governor and US Senator in 2018 were both within 1/2 of a percent requiring recounts.

[bucolic_frolic]

18. Democracy has ended in Texas

Don't know what we will salvage from it.

[Crazyleftie]

26. Are any other Dems running in the primary?

[left-of-center2012]

31. I think there are three or four other candidates

But I am on my phone now and cannot look it up.
The O'Rourke supporters will tell you no one else has a chance
But let's see what happens in the primaries

[Paladin]

27. I'm voting for Beto O'Rourke.

I don't care what he said about guns. I don't care if he's polling behind Abbott right now. I don't care if he loses to Abbott. I'm voting for Beto. Probably throwing a little campaign money his way, as well.

But then, I'm a for-real Texas Democrat. It's what we do.

[TxGuitar]

28. Is he the "official" nominee?

I must have missed that.

As for Abbott, well, there's still winter to come and the grid still isn't fixed, so we'll see, that might sway some folks.

[TexasTowelie]

46. There are a few other candidates that don't stand a chance of receiving the nomination.

Anybody else who wants to enter the primaries must file by 6 p.m. on Monday of next week. Julián Castro isn't going to enter the race and it looks doubtful that Joaquin will enter the race either. There isn't anyone else out there with the name recognition who is interested and considering that there is less than twelve weeks to the primary, while it may not be official it is reasonable to conclude that the governor's race will be between Abbott and O'Rourke.

[TexasTowelie]

45. +1

[Paladin]

37. McConaughey has been evolving into a Republican for years.

His hippy-dippy showbiz lingo disguises it, less and less, day by day...

[left-of-center2012]

38. Actually he was contemplating a run as an independent

[Paladin]

39. Translation: He's a Republican.

Declaring as an independent would be an instant flop in Texas. He'd have to choose one party or the other, and I believe he'd go Republican.

[left-of-center2012]

40. Whatever

[TexasTowelie]

44. Odd that you are willing to support someone who is not a Democrat

instead of someone who is a Democrat.

[Joinfortmill]

41. WTF? Give Texas back to Mexico.

[Paladin]

61. And there it is.

The inevitable "Texas Back To Mexico" demand. I'm surprised it took so long to appear, given the nature of this thread.

Tell you what: If trump manages to goose-step his fat ass back into the White House once more, I'll join you in demanding that my native state be punted over to Mexico. Short of that, me and my family and millions of Texas Democrats would prefer to stick around, thank you very much.

[Polybius]

69. Beto did this to himself

He's got the looks and charisma, but is too liberal for Texas.

[TexasTowelie]

43. Quinnipiac has only conducted one other poll in Texas prior to this one.

A new poll shows Abbott besting O’Rourke. What should we make of the numbers?

https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/a-new-poll-shows-abbott-besting-orourke-what-should-we-make-of-the-numbers/

The only other time that they surveyed Texas was in 2018. They predicted that Cruz would beat O'Rourke by nine points. The actual margin was three points. Something to keep mind before putting too much faith in these recent poll results.

[madville]

49. Beto won't get above 46% in the general election

That's his ceiling unfortunately, Abbott probably wins 52-46.

[TexasTowelie]

51. I'm not going to make any predictions since we are still

almost eleven months away from the election. Both candidates will have the opportunity to flub or shine on the issues.

[Polybius]

52. Doesn't Joe Manchin have any kids that could run in Texas?

Because that's what Texas needs to win, not someone as far to the left as Beto.

[left-of-center2012]

55. There are three or four other candidates in the Democratic primary

Beto still has to win the nomination.

[redstateblues]

62. Love Beto but threatening to take away guns in TX is a losing proposition