California Population Loss Accelerated During Pandemic

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Last edited Wed Dec 15, 2021, 08:18 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

U.S.

California Population Loss Accelerated During Pandemic

Decrease in people moving to the Golden State was particularly severe in the San Francisco Bay Area, where new arrivals fell 45%, study finds

By Christine Mai-Duc
https://twitter.com/cmaiduc
[e-mail]
Dec. 15, 2021 5:30 am ET

California is losing more than twice as many people to domestic migration as it was before the pandemic, a new report from University of California researchers shows.

The research released Wednesday shows the change is largely being driven by a drop in the number of people moving to California from other parts of the U.S. and is most acute in the high-cost San Francisco Bay Area.

The researchers examined anonymized credit bureau data and found that the downward trend in net domestic migration has been accelerated by a 38% decrease in the number of new arrivals between March 2020 and September of this year. The number of new arrivals declined in all of the state’s 58 counties.

“Entrances have been really stable over time, but they did dip pretty substantially since the pandemic,” said Natalie Holmes, a UC Berkeley doctoral student and one of the authors of the report from the nonpartisan California Policy Lab.

Meanwhile, the number of Californians leaving has increased by 12%, a return to pre-pandemic trends. In total, 150,000 more people on average left California than entered in the third quarter of 2021, compared with 60,000 net exits in the first three months of 2020. The actual volume of the flows is likely even bigger, Ms. Holmes said, since the analysis relies on credit data and is less representative of younger and lower-income residents.

The report didn’t explore why fewer people are coming to the state than before. Previous research has suggested housing costs and affordability are key factors. Many Americans re-evaluated where to live during the pandemic as businesses closed and larger numbers of people were able to work remotely. (1)

An analysis published in May by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California showed that people who move to California tend to have higher incomes and higher education levels than those who move out.

California has been losing more people to other states than it gains for years, census data and state estimates show. Last year, its population decreased for the first time in recorded history. (2) In another first, California will lose a congressional seat in the once-a-decade redistricting process now under way.

{snip}

—Paul Overberg contributed to this article.

(1) https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-supercharged-changes-in-where-americans-live-11619536399

(2) https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-population-declines-for-first-time-in-more-than-a-century-11620416887

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-population-loss-accelerated-during-pandemic-11639564203

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During the pandemic, the number of people moving to California fell 38%, a new study found. In the San Francisco Bay Area, new arrivals plummeted 45%

Link to tweet

[Dorian Gray]

1. NYC lost a lot of people

but people are coming back. Curious what numbers for next year will look like.

[SunSeeker]

2. You'd never know it, judging by the traffic on the 405! nt

[LoisB]

4. Truth!

[Magoo48]

12. 405-the freeway of infinite construction.

[Beaverhausen]

16. Right?

I say the fewer people who move here the better!

[Demovictory9]

3. I ts pricey to live here..with remote work options..people

Can make their dollars go further

[oldsoftie]

6. Topeka KS is offering cash to those people to move there.

https://www.kcur.org/podcast/up-to-date/2021-10-19/topekas-cash-offer-for-workers-to-move-to-the-city-is-paying-off

Its not a large number, but other places are seeing it as well.
Where I live, more people from the Atlanta area are moving out of that sprawl since they can now work remotely

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

5. Was just in SoCal for a week, and was shocked at how expensive everything is there.

I live in a rural area in another state, and was in SoCal helping an injured relative in E. San Diego County.

Many things in the grocery stores there cost about twice as much as where I live. Regular unleaded gas was about $1.30 more a gallon than what I pay where I live.

Not to mention that E. San Diego County seems to have literally been taken over by militant christo fascists.

[Grokenstein]

7. Wonder how many of 'em were dim donnie cultists

running off to Texarse or Flaw'duh to enjoy some Flavor-Aid.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. Taking electors with them. NT

[Lovie777]

9. Southern California's housing, condos, apartment construction is booming . . ..

[Ford_Prefect]

10. And yet the prices are at an all time high...Thanks to the speculators from near and FAR.

Back when I was working for a living I had 2 job offers that would have meant living in CA. In both cases the income and the job were promising and with companies that had bright futures.

I had to turn both down because each time I looked at how much housing cost, living cost, and how far I would need to travel from what was available housing to get to work it didn't add up. The practical answer was I would spend far too much of the generous offers and far too long on the road (up to 4 hours a day, every day) for the position to be worth my time and effort, and leaving a more affordable part of the world, and dragging my family with me.

If I were single and willing to live in a shoebox like a student those offers would have worked, at the price of having no life outside of work. I had already done the gig where I drove over 3,600 miles a month to service clients near and far. You cannot have a family and such a job, you cannot support a relationship in that situation because you cannot spend the time together nor do you have the energy to do it. As a career position that would involve years of commitment to the work the price of doing so was far to high.

[Basic LA]

11. My 75-yr-old neighbor moved to Montana

He said it was too liberal here in L.A. I asked what 'liberal' meant to him, but he had no answer.

[Auggie]

13. There's too many people here anyhow

[SoCalNative]

14. Exactly what I was thinking

We need to thin it out a lot more here.

[madville]

15. I lived in the SF Bay Area from 2017-2019

It was a good experience and there is so much to do but I don’t know how most people survive there. I was making about $8000 a month and my rent was $2500 on a mediocre 700 sq ft one bedroom apartment that hadn’t had an update in decades. How does someone survive there on say just $15 an hour? The cheapest house I saw for sale when I moved there was almost a million dollars and needed at least a couple of hundred thousand in repairs due to fire damage.

Some coworkers bought houses over an hour commute away in the $500-700k range.

And like someone else’s said, the grocery store prices are crazy, easily 30-50% higher than where I am in the Southeast now.

I lived on Alameda island and one day looked up the city employee pay out of curiosity. The garbageman pay was $40-50 an hour and the police officers were making $50-70 an hour. A coworkers wife was making $80 an hour as a Nurse Practitioner, so for people with decent jobs the price of living there made more sense.

[Sympthsical]

22. "How does someone survive there on say just $15 an hour?"

Roommates. All of them.

I have friends, 30s and professional, who frequently rent houses with friends. 3-4 people renting together. It's very, very typical. One friend has a very small apartment in Berkeley with four people. One bedroom has bunk beds, one person in a closet sized bedroom, and one person in an area partitioned off the living room.

It's why I moved to North Bay. Once it became time to buy, I noped on out to more affordability. And even then, my home has increased 30% in value in two years.

Place is ridiculous.

[IronLionZion]

17. Texas and Florida gained population

so Californians must be moving there.

People have mentioned seeing lots of building construction and traffic in CA but that must be in specific suburban/coastal areas while the rural inland lost population.

[NH Ethylene]

18. The wildfires and widespread smoke have been pretty alarming.

I wonder if that has been a factor as well.

[jgmiller]

19. That works for me

I've lived here my whole life and love it but I would love it even more if there were less people. The traffic is just insane and the amount of land being consumed to build more housing is just unbelievable. I think I'd be happy if the population shrunk by 5-10% which I know is never going to happen, it won't even reach a stabilization point unfortunately.

That's why I always crack up when people say "Everyone is leaving California, it's a hell hole!". Then please explaint to me why it's still so overcrowded and we have a housing shortage.

[chia]

26. Same. The neighborhood I grew up in, my dad used to joke he was the last person off the freeway when

he drove home from work. Orange groves still, and the freeway hadn't been extended that far yet. Much has changed since I was a kid, but I love it, it's home and I'm not going anywhere.

Meanwhile I know multiple families who've left the state in the latest ideological/religious push to 'get out of CA before it's too late' but they're not the first iteration, my conservative parents considered just such a move when I was a young teen because they were being influenced by their circle of friends who were doing same. Now two generations later, powered by anti-vaxx/anti-mask, and religious, cultural, and political fears, they're moving to states more politically agreeable. Given the size of California, the numbers are a drop in the bucket. People come and people go, and this is still a great state to call home.

[msfiddlestix]

30. eggs actly

I'm in the North Bay (Sonoma County) and we're experiencing exactly what you're describing.

[The Mouth]

20. Far too many people for the water and infrastructure here

this state can't sustain 30 million people, or even 20 million; I don't know what part of "WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH WATER TO BUILD ANY MORE HOUSES" people don't understand.

[Sympthsical]

21. Just saw a house in Berkeley listed at $1.5 million

About 1,000 square feet on a small lot. The floor plan is inexplicable.

Cannot imagine how migration is becoming increasingly an option.

[DownriverDem]

23. Cost

of living is beyond many folks income.

[NickB79]

25. Climate change is going to turn large chunks of the Southwest to hard desert

The last thing we need is continued migration to any states in that area.

[MicaelS]

27. People are moving to Texas from Ca. in droves.

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

28. Ask us in Las Vegas how we feel...

we have had a huge influx of Californians that, unfortunately, has led to skyrocketing rents and has contributed to raising the cost of the average single-family home. Unfortunately, compensation in the area has not kept pace, so the housing struggles are pricing out locals who work in the typical industry (hospitality). Currently, it is nearly impossible to buy a resale home if you need a mortgage as most resale homes are being sold sight unseen for cash and no contingencies (no inspection, etc.).

Despite the fact that I earn well above twice the average income and I have savings, I was only able to afford a new construction townhome which will be finished in May 2022. My new home community has a contingency on the sales contract that I am not an investor and I cannot rent the home for a full year after purchase - this is to prevent flippers and illegal AirBnBers.

I lived in San Mateo County from July 2016 to August 2017 - my rent for my 1-bedroom apartment here in LV is now approaching what my rent was there for a 1-bedroom apartment. Except that my salary was comparatively much higher.

[msfiddlestix]

29. I no longer consider these reports credible, or worthy of concern.

The shortage of supply/demand on new homes does not support these assertions.

I realize a number of people have left the state, but apparently the number of people seeking new homes here have risen greatly.

And that is despite catastrophic fires, drought, astronomical real estate prices throughout the Bay Area, including here in the North Bay.

By the way, population decreases in the city of San Francisco, is not a reflection of what's happening here in the North Bay.

Which is in the State of California.

[Sympthsical]

31. It's because Covid has allowed migration away from South Bay and the city

If you no longer have to go to an office, what's the point of paying astronomical rent when you can move a little farther away and pay a mortgage for similar cost?

North Bay is coming up because it's cheaper and there's room to grow. I bought in 2019. I'm up 30% since. Just did a refi to knock three years off a 15 year mortgage. My sleepy enclave is starting to be developed more (much to the neighbors' objections - we're getting an Amazon warehouse).

Still, I have quite a few friends looking elsewhere. The rents just got too out of hand. Texas is a big one. Washington and Oregon are your staples. I have one friend heading to Missouri of all places.

Eventually, people don't want to rent anymore, or at least not at that cost for so little space. When median home prices are cracking $1 million in suburbs - not even tech hubs or the city proper - the situation becomes untenable.

Mix in rents increasing, meaning any wage increases functionally vanish, and you've a migratory stew going.