Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study

[TomCADem]

Source: Reuters

The results of the study by Imperial College London were based on UK Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11.

"We find no evidence (for both risk of hospitalisation attendance and symptom status) of Omicron having different severity from Delta," the study said, although it added that data on hospitalisations remains very limited.

"Controlling for vaccine status, age, sex, ethnicity, asymptomatic status, region and specimen date, Omicron was associated with a 5.4-fold higher risk of reinfection compared with Delta," the study, which was dated Dec. 16, added.

The protection afforded by past infection against reinfection with Omicron may be as low as 19%, Imperial College (ICL) said in a statement, noting that the study had not yet been peer reviewed.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-five-times-more-likely-reinfect-than-delta-study-says-2021-12-17/

---

Well, so much for the Republican/Anti-Vaxxer talking point of just letting COVID wash over people to achieve herd immunity naturally.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/trump-appointee-demanded-herd-immunity-strategy-446408

‘We want them infected’: Trump appointee demanded ‘herd immunity’ strategy, emails reveal

A top Trump appointee repeatedly urged top health officials to adopt a "herd immunity" approach to Covid-19 and allow millions of Americans to be infected by the virus, according to internal emails obtained by a House watchdog and shared with POLITICO.

“There is no other way, we need to establish herd, and it only comes about allowing the non-high risk groups expose themselves to the virus. PERIOD," then-science adviser Paul Alexander wrote on July 4 to his boss, Health and Human Services assistant secretary for public affairs Michael Caputo, and six other senior officials.

"Infants, kids, teens, young people, young adults, middle aged with no conditions etc. have zero to little risk….so we use them to develop herd…we want them infected…" Alexander added.

"It may be that it will be best if we open up and flood the zone and let the kids and young folk get infected" in order to get "natural immunity…natural exposure," Alexander wrote on July 24 to Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Stephen Hahn, Caputo and eight other senior officials. Caputo subsequently asked Alexander to research the idea, according to emails obtained by the House Oversight Committee's select subcommittee on coronavirus.

[NQAS]

1. It may be pointless....

… but gave any studies been done to calculate the losses if sane Americans had decided to go maskless?

[paleotn]

2. Humans have a hard time developing natural

immunity to coronaviruses in general. So no surprise on reinfection for those who contracted an ancestral strain. Vaccination is far more efficient in developing resistance. Longer lasting too. Particularly mRNA vaccines.

[SheltieLover]

3. Dr. Ding has this up on his twittet

Wth started the rumor that this is milder? It is 70 times as contagious as delta & cases double every 2-3 days! 😷

Dr. Ding's twitter where he commets on this study.:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DrEricDing?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Dr. Ding isa Harvard epidemiologist for anyone unfamiliar with his work.

[bronxiteforever]

4. +1 thanks for posting SheltieLover!

[SheltieLover]

6. Yw, Bronxite!

He has been 100% correct, thus far & also was very critical of CDC mask mandate retraction & authorities dragging feet on boosters. Smart doc who tells it like it is!

Ge is very strongly advocating for corsi boxes & better ventilation in all classrooms! (Corsi box is a box fan, hepa filters & duct tape. His twitter shows effectiveness of this device that costs

[hamsterjill]

34. Anywhere to follow him other than Twitter?

n/t

[SheltieLover]

35. Sorry, no idea

I'm not a twitter user, but still can read it.

If you search Dr. Eric Ding Harvard Epidemiologist, maybe something will come up.

He is a great source for info, IMO.

[stopdiggin]

5. I'm going to question that 70X figure

(at least until I get other confirmation) Just seems too extreme (particularly from an already very infectious baseline of Delta). I'm also really disappointed, and somewhat alarmed, that this paper is claiming no reduction in severity - which seems to be at least strongly suggested in several other (preliminary) findings.

[Pobeka]

10. 70X is not about infecting other people, it is how fast it replicates in an individual...

I'm assuming it referenced the same article I saw yesterday with the 70X

[stopdiggin]

12. Thanks.

I would conflate 'contagious' with 'infectious' (in layman's terms at least). Could be totally wrong about that in technical terms - but then, in that case the term 'contagious' would be incorrect in this context? (and a bit alarmist?)

[Pobeka]

16. To be sure, you have to go read the *original* source to know what they mean.

Sometimes the original is more than one hyperlink away.

[appalachiablue]

7. ++

[SheltieLover]

8. ...

[NH Ethylene]

9. S. Africa started this 'rumor' by reporting on actual cases.

How contagious it is and how quickly it spreads are very different from severity, which is how likely people are to get hospitalized or die from it.

Early reports show it's milder but in a younger population sample, so only time will tell.

[Pobeka]

11. It is not 70x as contagious as Delta.

It replicates 70x faster once in an individual, as compared to Delta.

I have seen estimates of 2 or 4 times as contagious as Delta.

[stopdiggin]

13. and thanks again. important info. -(nt)-

[womanofthehills]

40. Supposedly, it's less dangerous because the huge replication stays in the upper airway

Unlike previous strains that went to the lungs

[SheltieLover]

45. I've read that, too

No idea. I'm about as far from a doc as I could be.

Sounds encouraging, though.

[Pobeka]

15. Dr. Ding apparently didn't think it was important to include uncertainy about this study.

From:
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/omicron-five-times-more-likely-reinfect-than-delta-study-says-2021-12-17/

But Dr Clive Dix, former Chair of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, said it was important not to overinterpret the data.

"The conclusions made are based on making assumptions about Omicron where we still don't have sufficient data," Dr Dix said. "For example, we have no data on the cellular immune response which is now probably driving effectiveness of vaccines."

"This is a crucial missing assumption in the modelling."

"There is a huge amount of uncertainty in these modelled estimates and we can only be confident about the impact of boosters against Omicron when we have another month of real-world data on hospitalisation ICU numbers and deaths," he said.

[TimeToGo]

17. Yes

[SheltieLover]

31. I'll take Dr. Ding's word any day as he has been 100% correct for almost 2 years.

[beaglelover]

42. He's not even an infectious disease expert. He's mainly a fear porn producer!

From his wiki page:

Feigl-Ding's rapid rise to prominence as a leading TV and media commentator during the COVID-19 pandemic, despite his lack of formal training in infectious diseases, has led to much criticism and controversy.

[former9thward]

33. How many people have died of omicron?

Contagious means nothing if symptoms are milder.

[beaglelover]

43. Yes, sanity enters the conversation! Thank you!!!!

[Maggiemayhem]

41. Thank you.

It seems people are over focused on the SA statement of milder. A small and young sample.

[bucolic_frolic]

14. So they didn't want to panic us and now the truth is out

[Ace Rothstein]

20. The truth isn't out, see post 15.

Also, most aren't panicking in the US.

[BannonsLiver]

18. Meanwhile, in real world situations it's the opposite.

Hard to reconcile.

[LisaL]

19. UK is not a real world?

I never knew that.

[muriel_volestrangler]

23. Hospital numbers are up over a quarter in London compared to last week

The Mayor of London has declared a "major incident" due to the rapid spread of the Omicron coronavirus variant in the capital.

Sadiq Khan said Omicron is now the "dominant variant" in London and was having an impact on staff absences in the emergency services across the city.

He said London was the UK region with the largest number of Covid cases.

Latest government data shows there are 1,534 Covid patients in London hospitals - up 28.6% on last week.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-59710649

So, no, not "the opposite".

[yaesu]

21. "We find no evidence of Omicron having different severity from Delta,"

meaning there is also no evidence that it isn't as severe as Delta. I still believe Omicron is a milder form of covid though it replicates much faster once it infects. If its was as bad as D the death rate would have exploded by now. That is the vibes I have been getting from all the reports. All I can say is it better be less lethal or we are definitely up shit creek without a paddle.

[LisaL]

22. No, they don't mean there is no evidence it's not as severe as delta.

What they mean is that hospitalization rates and symptoms of omicron look to be similar to that of delta, adjusting for factors such as age, vaccination status, previous infection and so on.

[Loki Liesmith]

39. No that is not what it means

[IronLionZion]

24. Unvaxxed maskholes are eager to get it and spread it

thinking they will get "natural immunity".

[andym]

25. Replicates 70x faster in bronchus, 10x slower in lungs

Link to tweet

[Deminpenn]

26. These studies put out on relatively little data and lots

of assumptions are really not helpful.

Right now in the US over 70% of 18+ are vaccinated and about 1/3 have gotten boosters. It just doesn't make sense to extrapolate data from countries that used a different vaccine mix than the US like the UK has or countries like S Afr that reportedly have only about 1/4 of the adult population vaccinated and apply it to Americans.

While there might another peak of infections, the hospitals are dealing with unvaccinated covid patients. So the correlation between infections and hospitalizations are probably starting to diverge. As anecdotal evidence, despite all the recent covid cases in fully vaccinated professional athletes, the symptoms are mild or none at all, no player has been hospitalized and none have died.

[LisaL]

28. UK is highly vaxxed and their numbers are going through the roof.

Not sure why you think US is going to be different.
Our numbers are already high, and that is before omicron really gets going. All of our vaccines are less efficient against omicron than they were against delta.

[madville]

27. Everyone was talking about achieving herd immunity in

Late 2020. There were two sides of course, the let it burn through the population camp and then the herd immunity achieved through vaccination camp.

As we have seen though both sides were wrong, there is no such thing as herd immunity with COVID, either through natural infection or vaccination.

[LisaL]

29. It's hard to achieve herd immunity because covid keeps evolving to evade our immunity,

whether natural or from the vaccines.

[madville]

30. Exactly

Now we know that the rate of mutation going to be pretty much impossible to keep pace with, Omicron is proving that well with its ability to infect and reinfect people with both natural and vaccinated “immunity” or even a combination of both.

[KY_EnviroGuy]

32. Homicide haunts humanity in many forms. For Republicans it seems to be a hobby.

I truly hope people like Alexander are someday held accountable and totally publicly shamed for the deaths and sickness they've caused.


KY.......

[oldsoftie]

36. How can they be talking about reinfection when its only been around a month?

[LisaL]

37. Re-infections means Omicron can infect people who have been infected previously

with other variants.

[oldsoftie]

44. Oh, ok. I would've thought that was a given.

I thought they meant people infected with omicron getting it again

[Loki Liesmith]

38. That "no milder" should not be in headline.