Cook Report projects GOP as clear favorite to win House majority

[left-of-center2012]

Source: The Hill

Ratings released by The Cook Political Report on Thursday show the GOP with a clear edge in the 2022 battle for control of the House. The new batch of ratings from the nonpartisan election handicapper shows Democrats defending eight so-called toss-up districts across seven states. By comparison, Republicans are defending six toss-up seats in four states at this point.

At the same time, three Democratic-held districts — Arizona’s 6th, New Jersey’s 7th and Texas’s 15th — have landed in The Cook Political Report’s “lean Republican” column. Two more — Arizona’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 10th District — are in the “likely Republican” column.

Only one Republican-held district, Illinois’s 13th, currently leans toward Democrats, according to the latest ratings.

Republicans need to net just five seats in 2022 to recapture control of the lower chamber, a goal that appears well within reach, especially given the fact that the party of a new president tends to lose ground in Congress in midterm election years.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/587724-cook-report-projects-gop-as-clear-favorites-to-win-house-majority

---

The National Republican Congressional Committee says it is targeting 70 Democratic-held districts in 2022 after expanding its list last month. Democrats, meanwhile, are going after a more limited slate of 22 GOP-held districts.

[CrispyQ]

1. How many will be Qanon nuts?

Last I read, there were over 20 Qanon nuts running for congress in 2022. JFC.

[LiberalArkie]

50. All

[DownriverDem]

2. I will never get this

Hard to believe.

[temporary311]

4. Not that surprising

with several senate Dems actively sabotaging the party.

[DownriverDem]

8. Make that

2 Dem Senators

[LenaBaby61]

23. I guess even if there ....

IS extremely damaging evidence against members of Congress, none of them--GQP'ers--will have to leave Congress.

I guess this country is very ready for racist, authoritarianism and the a moral REIGN of the US GQP Taliban Party, a party which WILL impeach Joe Biden and Kamala Harris for nothing.

We'll totally LOSE our democracy for good if the US Taliban Party just TAKE's over all 3 branches of government because they CAN.

[JI7]

62. Why is it hard to believe after everything we see election after election ?

[Alexander Of Assyria]

66. Election is a year away. It's BS to predict so far away, but how else for pollsters to make money?

[elleng]

3. 'Republican Congressional Committee says it is targeting 70 Democratic-held districts

in 2022 after expanding its list last month. Democrats, meanwhile, are going after a more limited slate of 22 GOP-held districts.'

[dalton99a]

5. Hard to believe Trump was president of the United States

[edhopper]

6. Gerrymandering alone

will get them the victory.
Voter suppression will get them the Senate.
State Legislatures will deliver the Presidency to Trump in 2024.
The Coup will be completed.

[LenaBaby61]

24. One thing I don't think will happen is that tRump will be president again.

They may steal the presidency, senate and congress but he won't be president.

Could be DeathSentence of Floriduh, who'll start murdering people living in Blue states as well, because he'll take away states rights. Who'll stop that MIA murderer?

[edhopper]

39. You could be right about that

but whoever it is, it will be a Trumpian Repug.

[LenaBaby61]

45. THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[BlueSky3]

7. Bummer

And it looks like the Cook Political Report is almost always right.

[link:https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy|

Couldn't they be wrong this once? It's still a long ways away from November '22

[LenaBaby61]

28. I thought Charlie Cook retired from the Cook Report? I think these are all new people ...

Running the Cook Report.

[True Blue American]

30. They are

And other sources are saying Democrats are looking better than they thought.

[LenaBaby61]

46. 👍🏻👍🏻

[calimary]

64. Well, my Indivisible group and I will be fighting tooth and nail to make sure THIS is true.

Not gonna take "no" for an answer.

[2naSalit]

33. I say, let's make them wrong.

How about that? I think it's a good plan.

[BlueSky3]

51. +1,000

[mahina]

70. Word.

These posts seem to never mentioned that the reason the loser gains in the midterm is because their voters are more motivated. Our voters need motivating!

[BadgerMom]

71. Absolutely!

[rpannier]

65. According to the article, it's when they post between July 1 and end of August

Not there yet

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. What happened to last week's report saying redistricting was a wash w/no benefit to anyone?

At the same time, three Democratic-held districts — Arizona’s 6th, New Jersey’s 7th and Texas’s 15th — have landed in The Cook Political Report’s “lean Republican” column. Two more — Arizona’s 2nd District and Michigan’s 10th District — are in the “likely Republican” column.

That’s 5 seats right there.

Unless voting rights passes, traditional paradigms of electoral politics such as GOTV will have limited effect.

[turbinetree]

12. Exactly.....

[FBaggins]

18. Redistricting isn't the only thing affecting ratings

It's also true that "wash" oversimplified how redistricting has gone so far. It's clearly not as bad as many had feared, but there are quite a few seats that have been "scored" as shifting from leaning-red to leaning-blue, but many of them were already held by Democrats. So those aren't really presumed pick-ups.

[SouthBayDem]

74. AZ-6 and MI-10 are currently Republican

Those are NOT current D districts. MI-10 is an R+18 district for crying out loud! Where did you find that report?

[Fiendish Thingy]

77. I just quoted the OP. Nt

[chowder66]

10. This country loves pain and punishment. It looks like it will never, ever fucking learn.

[Traildogbob]

11. Kinda looks

Like a coup will need to be from Dems. The criminals have been allowed to get their claws in too deep. Darwin is our best hope. Or, get yer guns while they are easy and plentiful. What other chance we got, they have Jesus, God and the real creator, Trump. (Do I need the sarcasm thingy, for the parts that are sarcastic?)

[H2Oart]

42. hmmm

I am extremely surprised some aspect of vigilantism has not sprung out of all of this.....I'm not looking for that action, I am looking for and hoping for convictions of the top conspirators. I do hope the minor conspirators who are being arrested, tried and convicted see they are the pawns in this fucked up chess game of Trump and his cohorts.

[Me.]

13. Targeting Isn't Winning

and shame on Cook for promoting "the story", the conventional one which is the fave at the moment and they love to tell. Also, probably not paying attention to the fact that the DEms are doing better on the gerrymandering issue. I expected better from them.

[left-of-center2012]

15. See #7 above

7. Bummer
And it looks like the Cook Political Report is almost always right.

[link:https://www.cookpolitical.com/accuracy|

[Me.]

25. Almost Always

We are close to a year out and a lot can happen...I'm not ready to surrender to the conventional wisdom which lately a lot of the reporter/pundits find themselves having 2nd thoughts about the so called 'narrative'. One of the new memes is that they treat/treated tfg better than PJB who is doing wonderful things and that needs an adjustment.

[left-of-center2012]

38. "shame on Cook for promoting "the story"

Cook just reports the facts.
It doesn't promote 'the story', whatever that means.

From https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/cook-political-report/

Overall, we rate The Cook Political Report Least Biased based on a long track record of calling races based on known data.
We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing and a clean fact check record.

The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter/website that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor’s offices, and the American Presidency.

Failed Fact Checks --- None in the Last 5 years

The Cook Political Reports is owned by its founder Charlie Cook,
a one-time pollster for Democratic campaigns.

[Me.]

41. And Here's What I Think

everyone seems quite ready and willing to ring the death knell on the DEms especially Dems which is not at all helpful and very discouraging. AS for the facts, these are always interpreted. Also, really, it's no longer the Cook report except in name. I still say that at this juncture no one can tell what is really going to happen and ceding the House to the cons at this point can be a self fulfilling prophesy.

[left-of-center2012]

47. okie dokie smokie

[Joinfortmill]

60. Yup

[Farmer-Rick]

78. That is wrong

It is NOT owned by Charlie Cook anymore. It is owned by Amy Walter....a very well respected real journalist. She took over in 2021.

But the Cook does not have its own polling company or statistical analysis corporation. It has to use polling services. So, it's only as good as the polling service they use.

[jeffreyi]

14. Ugh.

I guess we are going down nasty. It's hard not to get caught up in this stuff. Then I remember, the rapidly evolving climate/weather thing dwarfs everything. I think I will go outside and enjoy this beautiful day. It would be fun, though, if the bad guys lost a few for a change.

[dsc]

16. In NC the current map, in litigation, is a disaster for us

currently the GOP has an 8 to 5 edge. That was the result of a redrawing in 2018 that was favorable to the Democrats, previous was 10 GOP, 3 Dem. Under the new map most likely 10 R 4 D but a decent likelihood of 11 R 3 D. If that map stays that is a loss to us of 1 to 2 seats and a gain for them of 2 to 3 seats. This is in a state that is about 51.5, 48.5 in favor of the GOP in 2020 and that the Dems won statewide in 2018.

[Marthe48]

17. will NRCC have any money?

If traitor and his family find out that another gop entity has a treasury, you can bet they'll try to get their filthy hands on it.

[Marthe48]

19. GOTV!

We must treat every election as a battle to save our democracy as we know it.

[DFW]

20. Charlie Cook is usually very accurate

But he is also very ear-to-the-ground to detect quick changes in sentiment. He will change his assessment if he detects a change in the wind.

[True Blue American]

31. Charle retired.

[Me.]

32. So Really, It's THe Amy Walters Report

[True Blue American]

53. Yes, she has been on the shows

I saw Charlie once, always admired the way he ran his focus groups. He was very fair.

The last time I saw him he was so frail. Sad!

[DFW]

34. It's still his show

His guiding hand is still what drives his organization. He “chose wisely.” I haven’t seen him in 15 years, but the most recent photo I saw didn’t look too good.

[LenaBaby61]

48. THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[Elessar Zappa]

21. For now they are.

We still have ten months to turn things around. It’s not too late.

[Lonestarblue]

22. We need to get younger voters involved.

They know that Republicans will do nothing about climate warming, and they are the ones who will pay for the future disasters it will cause. And the Supreme Court may hand Democrats a campaign issue if they overturn Roe. It’s hard to predict what they will do with Roe, though they will not want to cause Republicans to lose. They may uphold the Mississippi case at 15 weeks for an abortion but also give states the right to place so many limits on it that the states can effectively prevent abortion access, just as Texas has already done. It’s hard to see how the SC could uphold both the Texas law and the Mississippi law, but the majority are now religious radicals who legislate religious issues by carving out special privileges for extremist Christians.

[TexasBushwhacker]

26. That's the way I look at it

We didn't have a record turn out in 2020 for the status quo in the White House. We didn't have record turn out in Texas in 2018 because people just LOVED Ted Cruz. What I want to know is, why are these districts vulnerable? Is there something lacking in the current Democrats? Have the demographics changed in those districts in 2 years?

[Lawrence454]

27. The DCCC doesn't get it

Roads and bridges aren’t going to motivate anyone. We have to call out the GOP’s threat to Democracy and cancel some student debt.

[Turbineguy]

29. Makes sense

If the Democrats can't pass laws, you might as well replace them with those who won't.

[Historic NY]

35. People better get up off their duffs and work for the Democrat in their district

Just think Gym Jordan with be the new Chair of the Judicial Committee....

The DNC need to make sure no seat is unchallenged, like they have done in the past.

[DanieRains]

36. If Garland Doesn't Do His Job We Will Lose More Than The House

If he is to big of a coward to enforce the laws he should take a job as dog catcher, and appoint a real Attorney General.

[SouthBayDem]

75. The feds have a VERY high bar to clear for criminal charges

The Attorney General doesn't play politics the same way your local district attorney who's up for re-election would. The feds have to get everything down to the I's and T's right. If Garland rushed through a case and failed, people would complain too.

[RandPaulsNeighbor]

40. Premature

[LogicFirst]

43. A republican congress will not get anything done.

They didn’t repeal and replace the ACA when they had the opportunity.
They haven’t dealt with immigration - ever.
The list is endless.

[J_William_Ryan]

54. Which is what the voters want: nothing done.

The American people have a bizarre penchant for divided government and gridlock.

Democrats will need to get out and vote; but low voter turnout is the norm for midterms.

Voters are angry and frustrated and want to take the pandemic, high gas prices, and inflation out on someone – and that will be Democrats, regardless how baseless, idiotic, and ridiculous that truly is.

[SoFlaBro]

82. Inflation, gas prices, and logistics issues are old news.

President Biden turned all of that around for the good of all of that and makes Dems look like the party to get shit done and the party to resuscitate the economy.

[tenderfoot]

44. Imagine having no platform and nothing to offer and getting voted into office

[BradAllison]

76. Imagine leading a traitorous rebellion and being rewarded instead of jailed?

No one currently in the Republican party should be allowed to hold office.

[OneCrazyDiamond]

49. We shall see.

Vote, and vote Blue!

[Deminpenn]

52. A lot can happen in a year

Since not all the new maps are even out and approved yet, it's all speculation right now.

I haven't even seen the new PA congressional map yet. We will lose a seat, but the state supreme court ruled that districts must follow the state constitution of being compact and not dividing municipalities. Gov Wolf will veto any heavily gerry-mandered R map. The last time in 2018 when Wolf and the R legislature couldn't agree on a map, the court drew and imposed its own. Don't rule out that happening again.

[madville]

55. Depends which way Independents want to swing

The #1 issue at the moment among independent voters is the economy, specifically inflation, fuel and grocery prices. If their wallets aren’t happy then they typically punish the party in power at the moment.

[andym]

57. Need that generic ballot to go way in favor of Dems--need inflation to drop, pandemic to end

Need that generic ballot to go way in favor of Dems--need inflation to drop

enough to claim the "Biden economic miracle" and pandemic to become endemic. Look at the Cook Report then.

[JohnSJ]

58. The election is 11 months away. We wasted 6 months in the first year to pass the bipartisan

infrastructure bill. We did that to ourselves.

If we pass the BBB bill in the first quarter, and get the inflation numbers under control, those poll numbers will change in our favor.

Forget about the perfect bill, with a 50-50 Senate that isn’t going to happen, and cursing Manchin and Sinema isn’t going to get results

The other wild card is what comes out about the insurrection, and that can change everything

Look what comey did to Hillary. One week is all it took to do damage, and that was about false information which turned out to be nothing, but it was too late by then.

[Joinfortmill]

59. I don't care what the Cook Report says, it's not happening. Jan 6th Hearings soon to begin

And those hearings are going to change everything.

[OhioTim]

61. Hearings

I don't think most people are even following the hearings unless they are "into" politics. They're more interested in Ghislaine Maxwell. Watch the evening news.

[Polybius]

67. Saying that it's premature is fine, but flat-out saying "it's not happening"?

Reminds me of getting blasted here in early November when I said Terry McAuliffe was going to lose. People just didn't want to hear it. Yet they were wrong and the writing was on the wall.

The best advice is to be very afraid for November. Scaring people makes our side come out. False confidence does not.

[Mickju]

63. They are not always right.

[Polybius]

68. Yup, only 95% of the time

n/t

[NNadir]

69. I project the Cook Political Report to be wrong.

How is it that in 2022 we still all consult soothsayers?

[athenasatanjesus]

72. How, did they offer any solutions to any of this countries problems?

Have they ever fix any problems since being the conservative party?

[BaronChocula]

73. No Complaining, No Crying...

Get aggressive in anti-gopper messaging/propaganda. Talk about Republican Violence re phone threats, school board meetings, Jan 6 Capitol Debacle, Ritenhouse vigilantes, etc. to sway the suburban voters away from voting terrorist.

And organize, organize, organize!

[ShazamIam]

79. The media goal is to convince you it is already over, just surrender. This is going to be the daily

message until Nov 2022. The Democratic are losers, are losing, will lose, etc along with the daily attacks on Biden/Harris.

The goal of the same capitalists who own our government & own the media is they will use the media, all of it including what is sold as entertainment, it to gain total power over this government.

And yes they are all nicely aligned with the masters of the internet and their AI algorithms.

Out billionaires think they are gods and not subject to any law but their personal drive to accumulate and exercise power.

[left-of-center2012]

80. Well, okie dokie

[brooklynite]

81. The media goal is to convince who?

The Cook Political Report is an analytical sit that charges $350 for a subscription to its detailed analysis. Who do you imagine they're convincing. The average voter doesn't know who they are, much less read their content.

[ShazamIam]

86. They are talking point creators and message pointers.

[brooklynite]

87. And what in their messaging is factually false?

nb: They reported a strong likelihood of Democrats taking the House in 2018.

[Jose Garcia]

88. Don't look up

[DemocraticPatriot]

83. In other news, the NRA reports that GQP congressional candidates

make damned good rifle targets...



Okay, /s SNARK


On the other hand, I am contemplating marketing goods which superimpose the 'target circles' over the faces of the usual pro-fascist suspects... free enterprise and all that, yes? Freedom of speech? Gotta love capitalism.

[RussBLib]

84. could easily change

public hearings for Jan 6 committee, some indictments, some charges, and Dems could get the upper hand

[brooklynite]

85. Disagree...

...Most voters (even Democrats) aren't focusing on Jan 6 and related issues. They care about jobs, the economy, COVID, health care, etc.