Jobless claims: Another 207,000 Americans filed new claims last week

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Yahoo Finance

Jobless claims: Another 207,000 Americans filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, January 6, 2022, 8:30 AM

New unemployment claims ticked up but remained near a 52-year low last week, with the weekly pace of new claims holding below pre-pandemic levels as the labor market sees job openings near a record high.

The Labor Department released its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

-- Initial jobless claims, week ended Jan. 1: 207,000 vs. 195,000 expected, 198,000 during the prior week

-- Continuing claims, week ended Dec. 25: 1.754 million vs. 1.678 million expected, 1.716 million during the prior week

The U.S. economy likely saw a back-to-back week with new jobless claims coming in below the psychologically important 200,000 level. In the pre-pandemic period throughout 2019, new claims averaged around 220,000 per week.

But given that this week's data encompasses the holiday period, some economists warned that this report may be subject to some additional distortions.

"Signal-to-noise ratio is high at this time of year, because seasonal adjustment over the holidays is extremely difficult, so all forecasts are tentative," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Economics, wrote in a note. "The trend, though, is falling."

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-unemployment-claims-week-ended-jan-1-2022-194734695.html

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Here are this morning's banner, which went up before 7:00 a.m., and yesterday's placeholder article:

COMING UP Jobless claims preview: Another 195,000 Americans likely filed new claims last week
Check back at 8:30 a.m. ET for results

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Yahoo Finance

Jobless claims preview: Another 195,000 Americans likely filed new claims last week

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Wed, January 5, 2022, 2:47 PM · 3 min read

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weekly-unemployment-claims-week-ended-jan-1-2022-194734695.html

New unemployment claims likely remained near a 52-year low last week, with the weekly pace of new claims holding well below pre-pandemic levels as the labor market sees job openings near a record high.

The Labor Department is set to release its latest weekly jobless claims report Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

The U.S. economy likely saw a back-to-back week with new jobless claims coming in below the psychologically important 200,000 level. In the pre-pandemic period throughout 2019, new claims averaged around 220,000 per week.

But given that this week's data encompasses the holiday period, some economists warned that this report may be subject to some additional distortions.

"Signal-to-noise ratio is high at this time of year, because seasonal adjustment over the holidays is extremely difficult, so all forecasts are tentative," Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Economics, wrote in a note. "The trend, though, is falling."

Continuing claims, like new claims, have trended lower, but remained above pre-pandemic levels in the latest data. They last fell by 140,000 to reach a total of just over 1.7 million in mid-December, the lowest level since early March 2020.

And at 195,000, the expected number of new jobless claims for the final days of 2021 would be just marginally above the 188,000 reported in early December, which marked the lowest level since 1969.

{snip}

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. From the source:

Last edited Thu Jan 13, 2022, 09:44 AM - Edit history (2)

{edited: The program contact person and number have changed, from Thomas Stengle: [phone], to Kevin Stapleton: [phone].}

https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

News Release

Connect with DOL at
https://blog.dol.gov

TRANSMISSION OF MATERIALS IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED UNTIL
8:30 A.M. (Eastern) Thursday, January 6, 2022

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending January 1, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 207,000, an increase of 7,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 198,000 to 200,000. The 4-week moving average was 204,500, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 199,250 to 199,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending December 25, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending December 25 was 1,754,000, an increase of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up 2,000 from 1,716,000 to 1,718,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,798,750, a decrease of 61,250 from the previous week's revised average. This is the lowest level for this average since March 14, 2020 when it was 1,730,750. The previous week's average was revised up by 500 from 1,859,500 to 1,860,000.

{snip}

UNADJUSTED DATA

{snip}

The total number of continued weeks claimed for benefits in all programs for the week ending December 18 was
1,722,352, a decrease of 199,869 from the previous week. There were 20,155,922 weekly claims filed for benefits in all
programs in the comparable week in 2020.

{snip the rest of the twelve-page news release, until the end}

Weekly Claims Archives
Weekly Claims Data

U.S. Department of Labor news materials are accessible at http://www.dol.gov. The Department's Reasonable Accommodation Resource Center converts Departmental information and documents into alternative formats, which include Braille and large print. For alternative format requests, please contact the Department at [phone] (voice) or [phone] (federal relay).

U.S. Department of Labor
Employment and Training Administration
Washington, D.C. 20210
Release Number: USDL 22-6-NAT

Program Contacts:
Kevin Stapleton: [phone]
Media Contact: [phone]

[George II]

2. I'm glad they mentioned that this is the post-holiday period, usually after which there is a small..

....bump up because of temporary holiday workers losing their jobs.

[progree]

6. The numbers are seasonally adjusted /nt

[RandPaulsNeighbor]

3. Why This Yahoo Article Every week?

Every week this misleadingly titled article is posted. We could post any number of articles that are appropriately titled. Such as; "historically low new jobless claims", "The
Low New Jobless Claims Continue", or "]New[ Jobless Caims Generally Continue Downward Trend."

I am not impugning your motivations, but the title of this long running article pushes a narrative that ignores the positive trend and historically low numbers of NEW JOBLESS CLAIMS. This number has not been this low since 1969.

However, a passing observer would say oh dear god another 200k because the Yahoo title ignores all context.
And, again, as I have previously pointed out, and will continue to point out, this declining number does not reflect the number of people being forced off benefits. It reflects, predominantly, the number of layoffs nationwide and, to a lesser extent, individual firings. It is not a rolling total of those on unemployment (emphasis on new).

Surprisingly, after the holiday seasonal job cycle ended, this number only slightly ticked up.

We can and should do better.

[RandPaulsNeighbor]

4. I Should Add

This number was over 500 k, when Biden too over. It was in the millions at the height of the pandemic.

[maxsolomon]

5. "Another"?

Implies that these are additional claims and that the total is higher.

What weird framing.