Don't count on omicron ending the pandemic, Fauci says

[brooklynite]

Source: Washington Post

Top U.S. health officials are urging caution amid reports of coronavirus cases peaking in some areas and speculation that the omicron variant could end the pandemic.

“It is an open question whether it will be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for,” Anthony S. Fauci, the president’s chief medical adviser, said Monday during a virtual panel at the Davos economic forum.

“I would hope that that’s the case. But that would only be the case if we don’t get another variant that eludes the immune response of the prior variant,” he said. Even then, he added, covid-19 probably would remain as an endemic disease worldwide.

“If you look at the history of infectious diseases, we’ve only eradicated one,” he said. “And that’s smallpox. That’s not going to happen with” the coronavirus.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/01/18/covid-omicron-variant-live-updates/

[SoCalDavidS]

1. It Won't, At Least Not In America

There's just no way we're getting out of the pandemic stage, with less than a 70% vaccination rate. At least not for awhile.

Dr. Fauci is trying to be optimistic, but I'm sure he knows that given the resistance he's fighting against, the best case scenario is unrealistic.

America is sitting ripe for the next variant to come along. In fact, we may very well be the country where the next variant develops.

[Jon King]

2. Maybe, maybe not, very unpredictable

Its totally unknowable if and when and where the next variant comes and what its characteristics are. There is a possibility its very mild and provides more immunity.

And we could get lucky and enter the endemic stage after omicron. Not predictable at this time.

[SoCalDavidS]

3. I Stand By My Prediction

We won't escape Pandemic stage with only a 63% vaccination rate, and in some places. still well below 50%.

[Igel]

11. That could have been said in 1918.

It would have been wrong. We didn't have many viral vaccinations then.

It depends on what the virus does. Will it merely become a version of a souped up cold or will it continue to have divergent, infectious and dangerous, variants?

As for "vaccination rate," the percent vaccinated is suspiciously and very often predictably flexible. When we're boasting or defending, it's "% with one jab" when we're critical it's "% with at least two jabs" and it's slowly shifting to "you're not vaccinated unless you have three." One pick one's number to suit the narrative goals.

[oldsoftie]

4. But it could very well have a positive impact on future spikes.

The GOOD thing about it is that it generally is far weaker than Delta but more infectious. Thats going to leave a lot more people with antibodies who didnt have them before. We see that in South Africa right now. The downside is that those people will also say "See, I didnt need a vaccine"

[BigmanPigman]

6. Do people know you can get Covid more than once?

[oldsoftie]

10. the point was that having SOME antibodies is better than having NONE.

And the more people that have some the better. It may be the only way to get SOME resistance into the ones who continue to refuse the vaccines

[OneCrazyDiamond]

8. I read the vaccines provide better protection

mRNA vaccines are around five times more effective at preventing hospitalization than a previous infection
https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-do-vaccines-protect-better-than-infection-induced-immunity

[oldsoftie]

9. Of course. But for those who refuse to get one, its the next best thing.

[Igel]

12. And yet a number of countries

in Europe say that for access to public services one needs to be vaccinated or recovered.

Some protection =/= no protection, especially since 3 jabs only = "some protection." Thing is, "some" varies. Infection with Alpha 16 months ago doesn't offer much--too divergent a strain, long ago. Vaccines offer more, but only if given two jabs (rather like "two infections&quot .

It's not a simple calculus.

[FBaggins]

13. That's a misreading of the study results

It demonstrated enhanced protection against infection, but not hospitalization or death. The study was also pre-omicron where the results appear to be different and the target sample of vaccinated individuals had received the vaccine in a time window where we now know vaccines still have more antibody response - but after which we now know it begins to fade (while natural immunity may be more durable)

What we appear to know now is that those with natural immunity can expect some benefit from still getting vaccinated, but we can’t say for certain that someone with natural immunity is worse off than someone who has been vaccinated but without a prior infection. The challenge is how to implement that within broad public health policy even if it turns out to be true

[OneCrazyDiamond]

14. Yeah I don't pretend to know.

Just trying to not die choking on phlegm, if you know what I mean.

[Throck]

5. I've found that predicting COVID is like predicting the weather.

[Raine]

7. Continually back and forth on this, first it will end

then it won't.