Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Yahoo Finance
Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP
Emily McCormick · Reporter
Wed, March 2, 2022, 8:18 AM · 3 min read
U.S. private-sector employers brought back more jobs than expected in February as virus-related disruptions receded following the Omicron variants spread.
Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February compared to January, ADP said Wednesday. Economists were looking for payrolls to grow by 375,000, according to Bloomberg consensus data.
February's report also came alongside a sharp upward revision to January's payrolls. In January, private sector employment rose by 509,000, ADP said in its revised monthly print. Previously, ADP reported January payrolls fell by 301,000, which would have been the first drop since December 2020.
While February's labor market data will likely capture some residual impact from the record surge in Omicron variant cases in the U.S. in January, disruptions to the demand side of the labor market have started to attenuate as new cases have come down and consumers began going back out. However, employers remain in stiff competition for talent, with demand for workers elevated as the labor force participation rate holds below pre-pandemic levels.
{snip}
Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/adp-jobs-report-february-2022-labor-work-131813111.html
Please note this hyperimportant remark in the fine print:
[div class"excerpt"]February's report also came alongside a sharp upward revision to January's payrolls. In January, private sector employment rose by 509,000, ADP said in its revised monthly print. Previously, ADP reported January payrolls fell by 301,000, which would have been the first drop since December 2020.
This is a prelude to Friday's BLS report. Here's the original source material:
-- -- -- -- --
Private-sector employment increased by 475,000 from January to February, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/February/NER/docs/ADP-NATIONAL-EMPLOYMENT-REPORT-February2022-Final-Press-Release.pdf
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 475,000 Jobs in February
ROSELAND, N.J. - March 2, 2022 - Private sector employment increased by 475,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP National Employment ReportTM. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with Moody's Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP's actual data of those who are on a company's payroll, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.
https://adpemploymentreport.com/2022/February/NER/NER-February-2022.aspx
Total Employment
Change in Nonfarm Private Employment
Historical Trend
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment
Change By Company Size
Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment by Company Size
BumRushDaShow
(127,270 posts)Will it be -
or will model tweaks (if any) ensue?!
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,884 posts)That January revision is a big deal. The February report didn't show up exactly at 8:15:00, according to my computer. I kept hitting refresh and seeing -301,000 for January. Finally the +475,000 for February showed up.
BumRushDaShow
(127,270 posts)That's a +810,000 revision for January.
Looks like there are still choppy seas.
And good morning!
Johnny2X2X
(18,731 posts)An 810,000 job error? That's so inaccurate, why even rely on these numbers?
And remember, the -301,000 jobs number drove the narrative for 2 days before the BLS numbers came out Friday morning. We had threads here about how the news channels were eagerly awaiting a terrible report so they could blame Bien and proclaim a recession was here.
Last night was a good step, but the Dems had control in 2021 and 2021 was arguably the best year for the US economy in our nation's history. The most jobs created, and the best GDP growth since the early 80s. Dems need to do a better job of bragging.
And yeah, inflation is a concern, and we're doing a lot to fight it, but "real inflation" when wage growth is taken into account was 1.3% in 2021 because wages grew by 5.7%, their highest growth in decades.
I believe in the BLS's numbers, in the end they are subjected to in depth analysis and people will know if funny business is going on, but something tells me the initial releases sometimes can be mucked with and maybe Trump has his people doing so.
BumRushDaShow
(127,270 posts)some of this is due to the late receipt of the surveys and data from various industries being tracked, and thus they don't have the full numbers by the cutoff date for reporting. This was particularly vexing during the height of the pandemic but apparently persists even now (although the pandemic is still very much with us).
I think there is also the attempt to determine who is considered "employed or not" or "unemployed or not" during the survey period where you may have tens of thouands briefly out of work due to COVID exposure, whether due to employees out sick for an infection and/or employee contact with infected or exposed coworkers (after contact tracing) that negatively impacts and closes a worksite for a period of time (forcing a temp layoff/furlough), but where those people eventually come back to work at some point.
This is why you heard the hue and cry of dropping the quarantine period from 10 days to 7.
The other issue was the supply chain that forced many industries to temporarily halt operation while waiting for parts, etc. But these were brief stoppages that regardless, probably ended up going long enough to be reported as "unemployed" at the survey time. With the updated data, it clarified that the unemployment was temporary (and even with that, it varies from state to state what qualifies you for collecting UE).
We went through this during the 8 years of Obama where the media negatively characterized the numbers as "anemic" and ignored the complexities behind them and even today, ignore the huge gains out of habit of negatively characterizing the numbers.
Johnny2X2X
(18,731 posts)I'm just sick of misses in the reporting driving negative news for our President. And then when things are corrected it gets 1/10th the press as the original number.
But the Dems also must do a better job of bragging, I think Biden mentions his record breaking numbers enough, but it should be something the entire party rallies around daily. No Dem should appear on a show without mentioning their record breaking job numbers and/or the best economic growth in 40 years.
BumRushDaShow
(127,270 posts)and many that I see do "brag".
But as long as we don't OWN the big media and consider large mainstream broadcast outlets as a "long term investment" (and one that is worthy of maintaining whether they experience losses or not), then "we" will find "we" dont' get invited on those shows and have no control over who does, where in many cases, with some exceptions, more "milquetoast" types are brought on because again, we have no control of the guest list by not being the owners.
We had this during Obama's term -
And recently -
This article seems to finally delve into the crazy phenomena (article from last month) - https://wolfstreet.com/2022/02/04/jobs-report-solves-some-headscratcher-mysteries/
by Wolf Richter Feb 4, 2022 155 Comments
The Pandemic wreaked havoc on seasonal patterns; and seasonally adjusted numbers often misfired. We knew that since mid-2020. Today some of it was resolved.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.
(snip)
The employment report, released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, was a shocker in the positive sense. Markets had counted on terrible numbers to derail the Feds tightening strategy and derail the rate hike in March. But when the strong numbers came out, yields spiked, with the 10-year yield up 12 basis points to hit 1.93%, the highest since December 2019.
And there was another thing. The pandemic has wreaked havoc on the normal seasonal changes in the US economy: Home sales, retail sales, initial unemployment claims, the number of people who are working, etc. These economic activities fluctuate hugely and predictably with the seasons every year.
Seasonal adjustments, based on the normal seasonal patterns, are designed to smooth out the data and allow for month-to-month comparison. This worked fairly well until it didnt: When the pandemic screwed up the normal seasonality of the economy.
Itchinjim
(3,083 posts)Never accurate and always adjusted later on.
mahatmakanejeeves
(56,884 posts)Fri Feb 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Feb 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 12, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:
Sat Dec 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Dec 1, 2021: Links to additional earlier reports:
Fri Nov 5, 2021: (I had to split the links into two posts, due to "Forbidden 403" issues)
Links to earlier reports:
Links to additional earlier reports:
Wed Nov 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Oct 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Oct 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Sep 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Thu Sep 2, 2021 (in the Friday, August 6, BLS thread): Links to earlier reports:
Wed Aug 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Sat Jul 10, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jun 30, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Jun 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Thu Jun 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri May 7, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed May 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Apr 2, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Mar 31, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Mar 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Mar 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Feb 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Feb 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Fri Jan 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Wed Jan 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:
Updated from this post of Friday, December 6, 2019: Good morning. Links to earlier reports:
-- -- -- -- -- --
[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2022 (this one):
Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2022:
January jobs report: Payrolls jump by 467,000 as unemployment rate rises to 4.0%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2022:
Companies unexpectedly cut 301,000 jobs in January as omicron slams jobs market, ADP says
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2021:
December jobs report: Payrolls rise by 199,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.9%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2021:
December private payrolls rose by 807,000, far exceeding expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2021:
U.S. economy adds just 210,000 jobs in November
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2021:
November private payrolls rose by 534,000 topping expectations: ADP
Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Lets look at some earlier numbers:
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2021:
November private payrolls rose by 534,000 topping expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2021:
October jobs report: Payrolls grew by 531,000 as unemployment rate fell to 4.6%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2021:
October private payrolls rose by 571,000, topping expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2021:
Yahoo Finance September jobs report: Economy adds back disappointing 194,000 jobs, unemployment rate
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2021
September private payrolls rose by 568,000, topping estimates: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2021:
August jobs report: Payrolls rise by disappointing 235,000 while unemployment rate falls to 5.2%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2021:
August private payrolls rose by 374,000, missing estimates: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2021:
July jobs report: Economy adds back 943,000 payrolls, unemployment rate falls to 5.4%
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2021:
Private payrolls rose by 330,000 in July, missing estimates: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2021:
U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June as labor market showed renewed strength
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2021:
Private payrolls increased by 692,000 in June, beating expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2021:
U.S. economy adds 559,000 jobs in May, as the recovery shows signs of strength
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2021:
Private-sector employment increased by 978,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2021:
Economy picked up 266,000 jobs in April, fewer than expected as economy tries to rebound
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2021:
Private-sector employment increased by 742,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2021:
The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March as recovery gains steam again
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2021:
Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2021:
The economy added 379,000 jobs in February
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2021:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 117,000 Jobs in February
Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2021:
Unemployment rate falls to 6.3% in January; payroll employment changes little (+49,000)
ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2021:
ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 174,000 Jobs in January
progree
(10,864 posts)** Note: the below was created October 2020 **
** and refers to a table created in February 2020 **
** at the height of the pre-pandemic economy, and **
** essentially at Trump's high point in the job numbers **
***************************************
Job Creation of record of post-WWII Presidents, Average Annual % Increases :
THE BELOW WAS CREATED IN EARLY FEBRUARY AT NEAR THE PEAK OF THE PRE-COVID ECONOMY. Even so, it shows that Trump was a less-than-median job creator even at his high point. Now, according to the latest jobs report that came out October 2, Trump has lost 3.907 Million jobs since January 2017 when Obama left office, whch comes to 89,000 jobs lost per month during these 44 months. This of course, puts Trump last in the table as the only post WW-II loser
(Sorted from best to worst by average annual percentage increase in jobs. Republicans in red, Democrats in blue.)
Notice that -- with the tiny exception (0.2% difference) of Nixon to Kennedy -- the worst Democrat has a better record than the best Republican -- that is, until Obama, who inherited an economy that was losing several hundred thousand jobs a month And actually, Kennedy did not have a chance to complete his term -- had he done so, and had he had the same job creation numbers in December 1963 through January 1965 as Johnson had (a 3.48%/year annualized rate of increase), he would have easily topped Nixon.
Post-WWII Presidents ranked by Average Annual Percentage Increase In Jobs (the last column):
. . (updated 2/7/20 after new jobs report released - it has revisions going back decades.)
THE ABOVE WAS CREATED IN EARLY FEBRUARY AT NEAR THE PEAK OF THE PRE-COVID ECONOMY. Even so, it shows that Trump was a less-than-median job creator even at his high point. Now, according to the latest jobs report that came out October 2, Trump has lost 3.907 Million jobs since January 2017 when Obama left office, whch comes to 89,000 jobs lost per month during these 44 months. This of course, puts Trump last in the table as the only post WW-II loser
(Actually, the true jobs peak of the Trump economy was in February 2020 -- he gained another 251,000 jobs in February, which would make his 37 month record at the end of February 184,054 jobs/month, which comes to 1.52% average annual increase in jobs -- only trivially better than the 182,194 and 1.50% numbers shown in the table (which are at the end of January), and certainly doesn't affect his ranking from what is shown in the table).
Remember, Obama inherited the deepest recession since World War II, which lost 4.2 million jobs in the last 10 months of his predecessor, and in the last 3 months of his predecessor was losing 753,000 jobs a month. With that momentum, job losses continued for the first 13 months of the Obama presidency -- through February 2010 -- totalling 4.3 million jobs lost during those 13 months.
Anyway, despite the 4.3 million jobs lost in his first 13 months because of the Bush crash, Obama still beats 4 of the last 7 post-WWII Republican presidents (the count of 7 post-WWII Republican presidents includes Trump). Of these Republican presidents, only Nixon, Reagan, and Ford had better records than Obama, and Ford only edged him out by 0.01 percentage points.
In the above table, the average annual % increase in jobs (the last column) is a much fairer way to compare presidents than just the raw job creation figures in thousands because the latter is unfair to the earlier presidents who were working with much smaller labor forces to begin with. For example the number of job holders at the beginning of Truman's administration was only 38% as many as at the beginning of Clinton's administration, and 31% as many as at the beginning of G.W. Bush's administration. So Truman's pathetic-looking 93,570 jobs/month creation record turns out to be even better than Clinton's 238,521 jobs/month record when adjusted for the size of the labor force at the beginning of their terms.
In raw thousands of jobs created per year, both Reagan and Nixon beat Truman. But when adjusted for the size of the labor force -- again, by looking at average annual percentage increases in jobs -- Truman beats them both.
Official sources of information for the above:
# Payroll Jobs: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001 and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left
# Private Sector Payroll Employment: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
# Monthly change of above: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
# . . Hint: to see both of the above two together on the same page, go to http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
and click on the "More Formatting Options" link in the upper right and check the "Original Data Value" and the "1-Month Net Change" checkboxes and click the "Retrieve Data" button halfway down the page on the left