February jobs report: Payrolls rise by 678,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.8%

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Yahoo! Finance

The U.S. economy added jobs back for a fourteenth straight month in February, with job growth continuing even in the already-tight labor market as new Omicron cases from earlier this year came down.

The Labor Department released its February jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +678,000 vs. +423,000 expected, +467,000 in January

Unemployment rate: 3.8% vs. 3.9% expected, 4.0% in January

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.0% vs. 0.5% expected, 0.7% in January

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.1% vs. 5.8% expected, 5.7% in January

Last month, January's jobs report presented a significant upside surprise to investors, with more than 450,000 payrolls returning versus the 125,000 expected at the time. Job gains for December were also upwardly revised to total more than half a million.

"As the labor market grows tighter, we should expect some slowing in jobs growth," Alex Pelle, Mizuho Securities U.S. economist, wrote in a note ahead of Friday's release. "A greater proportion of hires will come from workers moving between firms than moving from unemployment or from outside the labor force."

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-2022-jobs-report-labor-department-unemployment-usa-200943212.html

---

This is a BFD.

Our DU economy watchers should be along shortly to do the deep dives.

Original article and headline -

February jobs report preview: Payrolls expected to rise as Omicron cases dip

The U.S. economy likely added jobs back for a fourteenth straight month in February, with job growth continuing even in the already-tight labor market as new Omicron cases from earlier this year came down.

The Labor Department is set to release its February jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +423,000 expected, +467,000 in January

Unemployment rate: 3.9% expected, 4.0% in January

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.5% expected, 0.7% in January

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.8% expected, 5.7% in January

January's jobs report presented a significant upside surprise to investors, with more than 450,000 payrolls returning versus the 125,000 expected at the time. Job gains for December were also upwardly revised to total more than half a million. "As the labor market grows tighter, we should expect some slowing in jobs growth," Alex Pelle, Mizuho Securities U.S. economist, wrote in a note. "A greater proportion of hires will come from workers moving between firms than moving from unemployment or from outside the labor force."

[mahatmakanejeeves]

1. Hey, thanks. Here's Emily McCormick's article from yesterday afternoon with the predicted numbers:

Yahoo Finance

February jobs report preview: Payrolls expected to rise as Omicron cases dip

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Thu, March 3, 2022, 3:09 PM

The U.S. economy likely added jobs back for a fourteenth straight month in February, with job growth continuing even in the already-tight labor market as new Omicron cases from earlier this year came down.

The Labor Department is set to release its February jobs report Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are the main metrics expected from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

• Non-farm payrolls: +423,000 expected, +467,000 in January

• Unemployment rate: 3.9% expected, 4.0% in January

• Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.5% expected, 0.7% in January

• Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.8% expected, 5.7% in January

January's jobs report presented a significant upside surprise to investors, with more than 450,000 payrolls returning versus the 125,000 expected at the time. Job gains for December were also upwardly revised to total more than half a million.

"As the labor market grows tighter, we should expect some slowing in jobs growth," Alex Pelle, Mizuho Securities U.S. economist, wrote in a note. "A greater proportion of hires will come from workers moving between firms than moving from unemployment or from outside the labor force."

{snip}

[BumRushDaShow]

3. Copying/pasting too fast!

Thanks!

[mahatmakanejeeves]

4. From the source, the BLS report:

Payroll employment rises by 678,000 in February; unemployment rate edges down to 3.8%

Economic News Release USDL-22-0344

Employment Situation Summary
Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until 8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, March 4, 2022

Technical information:
Household data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/cps
Establishment data: [phone] * [e-mail] * www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact: [phone] * [e-mail]


THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- FEBRUARY 2022


Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job growth was widespread, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In February, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.8 percent, and the number of unemployed persons edged down to 6.3 million. In February 2020, prior to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, and the number of unemployed persons was 5.7 million. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.5 percent) and Hispanics (4.4 percent) declined in February. The jobless rates for adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (10.3 percent), Whites (3.3 percent), Blacks (6.6 percent), and Asians (3.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of persons on temporary layoff, at 888,000 in February, was little changed over the month. The number of permanent job losers, at 1.6 million in February, also changed little. Both measures are higher than their February 2020 levels of 780,000 and 1.3 million, respectively. (See table A-11.)

In February, the number of persons jobless less than 5 weeks declined by 286,000 to 2.1 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 1.7 million. This measure is 581,000 higher than in February 2020. The long-term unemployed accounted for 26.7 percent of the total unemployed in February 2022. (See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate, at 62.3 percent in February, changed little over the month. The employment-population ratio edged up to 59.9 percent. Both measures remain below their February 2020 levels (63.4 percent and 61.2 percent, respectively).(See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons increased by 418,000 to 4.1 million in February but remains below its February 2020 level of 4.4 million. These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)

The number of persons not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 349,000 to 5.4 million in February. This measure is above its February 2020 level of 5.0 million. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job. (See table A-1.)

Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of persons marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.5 million, changed little in February. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, was little changed over the month at 391,000. (See Summary table A.)

Household Survey Supplemental Data

In February, 13.0 percent of employed persons teleworked because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 15.4 percent in the prior month. These data refer to employed persons who teleworked or worked at home for pay at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey specifically because of the pandemic.

In February, 4.2 million persons reported that they had been unable to work because their employer closed or lost business due to the pandemic--that is, they did not work at all or worked fewer hours at some point in the 4 weeks preceding the survey due to the pandemic. This measure is down from 6.0 million in the previous month. Among those who reported in February that they were unable to work because of pandemic-related closures or lost business, 20.3 percent received at least some pay from their employer for the hours not worked, down from 23.7 percent in January.

Among those not in the labor force in February, 1.2 million persons were prevented from looking for work due to the pandemic, down from 1.8 million in the prior month. (To be counted as unemployed, by definition, individuals must be either actively looking for work or on temporary layoff.)

These supplemental data come from questions added to the household survey beginning in May 2020 to help gauge the effects of the pandemic on the labor market. The data are not seasonally adjusted. Tables with estimates from the supplemental questions for all months are available online at www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm.

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 678,000 in February but is down by 2.1 million, or 1.4 percent, from its pre-pandemic level in February 2020. Job growth was widespread over the month, led by gains in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, health care, and construction. (See table B-1.)

Employment in leisure and hospitality continued to increase, with a gain of 179,000 in February. Job growth occurred in food services and drinking places (+124,000) and in accommodation (+28,000). Since February 2020, employment in leisure and hospitality is down by 1.5 million, or 9.0 percent.

Professional and business services added 95,000 jobs in February. Job gains occurred in temporary help services (+36,000), management of companies and enterprises (+12,000), management and technical consulting services (+10,000), and scientific research and development services (+8,000). Employment in professional and business services is 596,000 higher than in February 2020, largely in temporary help services (+240,000), computer systems design and related services (+154,000), and management and technical consulting services (+152,000).

Employment in health care rose by 64,000 in February. Job gains occurred in home health care services (+20,000), offices of physicians (+15,000), and offices of other health practitioners (+12,000). Employment in health care is down by 306,000, or 1.9 percent, from its level in February 2020.

Construction added 60,000 jobs in February, following little change in the prior month. About three-fourths of the over-the-month job gain occurred in specialty trade contractors, with increases in both the residential (+24,000) and nonresidential (+20,000) components. Construction employment is slightly below (-11,000) its February 2020 level.

Employment in transportation and warehousing increased by 48,000 in February and is 584,000 higher than in February 2020. Over the month, job gains continued in warehousing and storage (+11,000), couriers and messengers (+9,000), support activities for transportation (+9,000), and air transportation (+7,000). All four of these component industries have surpassed their February 2020 employment levels, with particularly strong job growth in warehousing and storage (+420,000) and couriers and messengers (+240,000).

Employment in retail trade rose by 37,000 in February, with gains in building material and garden supply stores (+12,000), furniture and home furnishings stores (+6,000), and gasoline stations (+5,000). Retail trade employment is 104,000 above its level in February 2020.

Manufacturing added 36,000 jobs in February. Employment in durable goods industries rose by 20,000, with job gains in fabricated metal products (+11,000), machinery (+8,000), electrical equipment and appliances (+4,000), nonmetallic mineral products (+3,000), furniture and related products (+3,000), and primary metals (+3,000). These gains were partially offset by a job loss in motor vehicles and parts (-18,000). Nondurable goods manufacturing also added jobs over the month (+16,000). Since February 2020, manufacturing employment is down by 178,000, or 1.4 percent.

In February, employment in financial activities rose by 35,000. Job gains were split between finance and insurance (+16,000) and real estate (+16,000). Employment in financial activities is 31,000 above its level in February 2020.

Social assistance added 31,000 jobs in February, with a gain of 21,000 jobs in individual and family services. Since February 2020, employment in social assistance is down by 152,000, or 3.5 percent.

Employment increased by 25,000 in the other services industry in February, led by a gain in repair and maintenance (+10,000). Employment in the other services industry is down by 317,000, or 5.3 percent, from its level in February 2020.

Wholesale trade added 18,000 jobs in February; employment in the industry is 113,000, or 1.9 percent, lower than in February 2020.

Mining employment rose by 9,000 in February, with gains in support activities for mining (+6,000) and in oil and gas extraction (+2,000). Mining employment has grown by 62,000 since a recent low in February 2021.

Employment showed little or no change over the month in information and government.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, at $31.58 in February, were little changed over the month (+1 cent), after large increases in recent months. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 5.1 percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 8 cents to $26.94. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 0.1 hour to 34.7 hours in February. In manufacturing, the average workweek for all employees increased by 0.4 hour to 40.7 hours, and overtime rose by 0.2 hour to 3.6 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls was up by 0.1 hour to 34.1 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for December was revised up by 78,000, from +510,000 to +588,000, and the change for January was revised up by 14,000, from +467,000 to +481,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 92,000 higher than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)

_____________
The Employment Situation for March is scheduled to be released on Friday, April 1, 2022, at 8:30 a.m. (ET).

* * * * *

[center]Facilities for Sensory Impaired[/center]

Information from these releases will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone], Federal Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. The BLS tweets

Link to tweet

BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
Payroll employment rises by 678,000 in February; unemployment rate edges down to 3.8% http://go.usa.gov/vrK #JobsReport #BLSdata
8:31 AM · Mar 4, 2022

Link to tweet

BLS-Labor Statistics
@BLS_gov
See our interactive graphics on today’s #JobsReport http://go.usa.gov/cn5B4 #BLSdata #DataViz
8:35 AM · Mar 4, 2022

Plus this from their interactive plot -

[mahatmakanejeeves]

8. Thanks. Those charts are worth studying.

The Wall Street Journal. will have an article up in a bit, "The February Jobs Report by the Numbers," or close to that. They get the charts from these tweets.

[BumRushDaShow]

5. WaPo article

U.S. adds 678,000 jobs in February, adding momentum to economic recovery
Unemployment rate falls to 3.8 percent, the Labor Department said Friday

By Abha Bhattarai

Today at 8:32 a.m. EST


The U.S. economy added 678,000 jobs in February, as the omicron wave receded and workers poured back into the labor force, adding momentum to the robust economic recovery. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, from 4 percent the month before, the Labor Department said Friday.

“Covid is loosening its grip — the virus ruled through fear and that fear is fading,” said Austan Goolsbee, an economics professor at the University of Chicago. “You see that around the country, as people are willing to go back out to jobs that they weren’t willing to take in the midst of the pandemic.” Friday’s jobs report, which was based on surveys conducted in mid-February before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, does not reflect the geopolitical crisis on the U.S labor market.

And though economists say it’s unclear exactly how the war might affect American jobs, they note that skyrocketing energy prices, slowdowns in consumer spending or looming uncertainty could prompt businesses to pause hiring in the coming weeks.Still, the rosy picture caps off a string of 10 straight months of strong growth with the economy picking up a blockbuster 7 million jobs over the past year, particularly in service sectors such as hospitality, retail and warehousing.

Indeed, the tight labor market — in which job openings continue to outnumber job-seekers — has forced businesses to change their recruiting and hiring strategies. Employers of all kinds are fast-tracking their hiring processes and in some cases, promising on-the-spot offers to lock in candidates, particularly in retail and hospitality. The Home Depot, for example, which plans to hire 100,000 employees by spring, is touting an “accelerated hiring process” that could land candidates an offer within 24 hours of applying.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/04/february-jobs-report-unemployment-2022/

[Johnny2X2X]

6. Just a fantastic report!

This economic recovery has been incredible and so fast.

And although wage growth slowed for some reason, wages are still up over 5% the last 12 months, meaning that "real inflation" is probably around 2%.

The country is only about 700,000 jobs short of a full recovery to pre Covid levels. Within the next couple of reports we should pass that.

[progree]

13. On wage growth - with such a large surge in jobs, likely a lot of it is probably

Last edited Fri Mar 4, 2022, 12:13 PM - Edit history (1)

disproportionately more marginal (and lower-compensated) returning to the workforce, putting downward pressure on the average wage.

Unfortunately, both of the below INFLATION ADJUSTED series are up-to-date only through January, because the February CPI numbers (used for inflation adjustments) have not been released yet.

Yet one can see the early pandemic jump in average hourly earnings due to last-hired first-fired policies disproportionately cutting lower-earners the most. Since the peak of that jump, there has been a steady erosion. It is still higher than any time pre-pandemic.

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Hourly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000032

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

===========================================

On non-farm payroll jobs (the headline jobs report number), we're still 2.1 M short of the pre-pandemic high

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

2/2020: 152,504,000
2/2022: 150,399,000
Delta: -2,105,000

Edited to add after Johnny2x2x post in #14:

On Employed from the Household Survey (noisier due to much smaller sample size, but the month-to-month volatility is not much of a factor when comparing data 2 years apart. On the other hand, for some reason the BLS, in its headline and narratives, feature the non-farm payroll jobs as the measure of job numbers and job growth.

In contrast, the Employed statistic is never mentioned in BLS narratives in their jobs report summary, and is just a number in the table. Following their lead, few to none economists or media reports mention it either.

Whatever, we should be consistent, i.e. not featuring one over the other only because it helps our candidate and hurts the other, and changing our preferred metric when the previous one no longer serves our political purpose.

Employed (from the Household Survey)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
2/2020: 158,866,000 (initially reported as 158,759,000 but since revised)
2/2022: 157,722,000
Delta: -1,144,000

================================================

I wrote this post back in July 2021 --

Side by side: monthly changes in Payroll jobs and Employment numbers -

illustrating the difference in volatility

Here are the monthly changes of the seasonally adjusted Establishment Survey payroll job numbers
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

2011: 19 212 235 314 101 236 60 126 233 204 132 202
2012: 354 262 240 82 100 73 152 172 187 159 156 239
2013: 191 278 139 191 222 181 112 242 187 225 264 69
2014: 175 166 254 325 218 326 232 188 309 252 291 268
2015: 191 271 71 284 331 174 302 125 155 306 237 273
2016: 108 212 237 197 41 258 371 143 289 118 130 214
2017: 197 183 139 220 141 211 228 190 42 249 196 179
2018: 81 378 195 153 270 214 149 229 105 212 92 240
2019: 237 -50 168 219 63 175 193 195 221 195 234 161

Here are the monthly changes of the seasonally adjusted Household Survey Employment numbers
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

2011: -51 144 245 -53 38 -240 140 418 241 185 458 76
2012: 682 274 178 -137 307 185 -99 -1 753 387 -98 -3
2013: -38 70 -46 319 247 117 265 62 92 -881 942 299
2014: 372 -16 514 19 158 422 152 131 248 649 -23 211
2015: 530 -100 83 383 306 -1 14 351 -355 420 217 665
2016: 525 286 279 -144 58 91 331 225 -18 32 161 203
2017: -7 264 636 224 -257 339 256 -20 674 -633 116 162
2018: 584 679 92 97 325 80 418 -619 381 358 292 147
2019: -120 279 -95 -68 142 248 486 244 369 126 184 195
January and February numbers in all years are affected by population controls

I know of no economist that thinks these wild month-to-month swings are more representative of what's actually happening with jobs. I certainly don't (but I'm not an economist).

========================================================

On statistical noise, I found this BLS technical note on sampling error -- http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm . Based on what it says, there is a 90% probability that the Establishment Survey's non-farm employment increase is within +/- 120,000 of the stated number. And a 10% chance that it is off by more than 120,000. Again, this is just the sampling error. There are other errors besides sampling error.

Correspondingly, again based on sampling error alone, there is a 50% chance that it is within +/- 49,200. So for example for a reported job gain of 200,000, there is a 50% chance that it is between 150,800 and 249,200, and a 50% chance that it is outside that range based on sampling error alone. Note there are errors other than sampling error that add to the uncertainty {1}

And in the Household Survey, there is a 90% chance that the monthly unemployment change is +/- 300,000 of the stated number (note this is 2.5 times the Establishment Survey's nonfarm employment's sampling error). Also, that there is a 90% chance that the unemployment rate is about +/- 0.2% of the stated number.

The above only covers sampling error. There are also many other sources of error (search the above link for "non-sampling error" )

The individual components that go into these numbers have an even larger sampling error. As explained above, right-wingers love to find the aberrant statistic or two of the month and make it out to be the story of the Biden/Squad administration, rather than what it really is -- just one month's number in a very statistically volatile data series.

{1} 90% of the area under the normal curve is between +/- 1.645 standard deviations. 50% of the area under the normal curve is between +/- 0.675 standard deviations. Thus if there is a 90% chance that it is within +/- 120,000, then there is a 50% chance that it is within +/- 49,200 (0.675/1.645 * 120,000 = 49,240 , then round to 49,200 ).

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Total employed is 157.7M

157.7 for February 2022.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm

Was 158.7M in February 2020, so 1 million jobs to go
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_03062020.pdf

[mahatmakanejeeves]

9. Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Feb 4, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Feb 2, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 12, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jan 5, 2022: Links to earlier reports:

Sat Dec 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Dec 1, 2021: Links to additional earlier reports:

Fri Nov 5, 2021: (I had to split the links into two posts, due to "Forbidden 403" issues)

Links to earlier reports:

Links to additional earlier reports:

Wed Nov 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Oct 8, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Oct 6, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Sep 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Sep 2, 2021 (in the Friday, August 6, BLS thread): Links to earlier reports:

Wed Aug 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Sat Jul 10, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Jun 30, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Jun 4, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Thu Jun 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri May 7, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed May 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Apr 2, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 31, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Fri Mar 5, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

Wed Mar 3, 2021: Links to earlier reports:

-- -- -- -- -- --

[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2022 (this one):

February jobs report: Payrolls rise by 678,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.8%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2022:

Private payrolls rose by 475,000 in February, topping expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2022:

January jobs report: Payrolls jump by 467,000 as unemployment rate rises to 4.0%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2022:

Companies unexpectedly cut 301,000 jobs in January as omicron slams jobs market, ADP says

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2021:

December jobs report: Payrolls rise by 199,000 as unemployment rate falls to 3.9%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2021:

December private payrolls rose by 807,000, far exceeding expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2021:

U.S. economy adds just 210,000 jobs in November

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2021:

November private payrolls rose by 534,000 topping expectations: ADP

Nonetheless, what is important is not this month's results, but the trend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2021:

November private payrolls rose by 534,000 topping expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2021:

October jobs report: Payrolls grew by 531,000 as unemployment rate fell to 4.6%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2021:

October private payrolls rose by 571,000, topping expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2021:

Yahoo Finance September jobs report: Economy adds back disappointing 194,000 jobs, unemployment rate

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2021

September private payrolls rose by 568,000, topping estimates: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in August 2021:

August jobs report: Payrolls rise by disappointing 235,000 while unemployment rate falls to 5.2%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in August 2021:

August private payrolls rose by 374,000, missing estimates: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in July 2021:

July jobs report: Economy adds back 943,000 payrolls, unemployment rate falls to 5.4%

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in July 2021:

Private payrolls rose by 330,000 in July, missing estimates: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in June 2021:

U.S. economy added 850,000 jobs in June as labor market showed renewed strength

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in June 2021:

Private payrolls increased by 692,000 in June, beating expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in May 2021:

U.S. economy adds 559,000 jobs in May, as the recovery shows signs of strength

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in May 2021:

Private-sector employment increased by 978,000 from April to May, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in April 2021:

Economy picked up 266,000 jobs in April, fewer than expected as economy tries to rebound

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in April 2021:

Private-sector employment increased by 742,000 from March to April, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in March 2021:

The U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March as recovery gains steam again

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in March 2021:

Private employers added back 517,000 jobs in March, missing expectations: ADP

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in February 2021:

The economy added 379,000 jobs in February

ADP^® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in February 2021:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 117,000 Jobs in February

[mahatmakanejeeves]

10. Additional links:

I haven't posted this in a while.

It used to be that you could get free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal. by going in through TWSJ.'s Twitter account or the Twitter accounts of the authors:

How to get around the paywall to read articles in The Wall Street Journal.:

For free access to articles in The Wall Street Journal., trying going in through the authors' Twitter feeds:

This trick doesn't seem to work anymore, but you might be able to get in if they've slipped up. Here are those accounts.

Finally, you can always read articles in The Wall Street Journal. with your library card. Log in to the database of national newspapers.

Sun Feb 13, 2022: How to get around the paywall at national newspapers

Newspapers get a royalty for appearing in the database, so you're not stealing from them. You pay for this with your taxes.

* * * * *

The Wall Street Journal.: @WSJ
https://twitter.com/wsj

Wall Street Journal

Breaking news and features from the WSJ.

* * * * *

Ben Leubsdorf: @BenLeubsdorf
https://twitter.com/BenLeubsdorf

I cover the economy at @WSJ. @ConMonitorNews, @AP, @the_herald alum. DC native. Hyperactive news omnivore. Also I like burritos. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Josh Zumbrun: ‎@JoshZumbrun
https://twitter.com/JoshZumbrun

National economics correspondent for the Wall Street Journal. Covering the world's usual state of greed and disorder, confusion and apathy. [e-mail]

* * * * *

Nick Timiraos: @NickTimiraos
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos

National economics correspondent, The Wall Street Journal

Please look at the tweets, as Nick Timiraos likes to slice and dice the data every which way. Also, link to the "11 charts " article from his Twitter feed to get past TWSJ.'s paywall.

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Jeffrey Sparshott: @jeffsparshott
https://twitter.com/jeffsparshott

[e-mail]
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Paul Vigna: @paulvigna
https://twitter.com/paulvigna

Markets, bitcoin, and the zombie apocalypse.

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Eric Morath: @EricMorath
https://twitter.com/EricMorath

[e-mail]

I'm a Wall Street Journal economy reporter, dad, husband and Spartan for life. [e-mail]

Washington DC

blogs.wsj.com/economics/

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Sarah Chaney: ‎@sechaney
https://twitter.com/sechaney

Economy Reporter at The Wall Street Journal. Tar Heel. [e-mail]

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[Happy Hoosier]

11. Way to go, Handsome Joe!

Now put on your fighting trouser and face down a tyrant. You can do it!

[progree]

12. Links to some BLS Data Series Numbers and Graphs

Every one of these data series comes with a table and graph.

# Nonfarm Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001
Monthly changes (in thousands): https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth
   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001

# Employed in thousands from the separate Household Survey, http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000
Monthly changes (in thousands): http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12000000?output_view=net_1mth

   NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02000000

# Nonfarm PRIVATE Employment (Establishment Survey, https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001?output_view=net_1mth
    ^-Good for comparison to the ADP report that typically comes out a few days earlier
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0500000001

# INFLATION ADJUSTED Weekly Earnings of Production and Non-Supervisory Workers http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000031

# Labor Force http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000?output_view=net_1mth

The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed. To count as unemployed, one must have actively sought work in the past 4 weeks (just looking at want ads and job postings doesn't count)

# Unemployed http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13000000

# ETPR (Employment-To-Population Ratio) aka Employment Rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

# LFPR (Labor Force Participation rate) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000

# Unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

# U-6 unemployment rate http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS13327709

# NILF -- Not in Labor Forcehttp://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15000000

# NILF-WJ -- Not in Labor Force, Wants Job http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS15026639

# Part-Time Workers who want Full-Time Jobs (Table A-8's Part-Time For Economic Reasons) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12032194

# Part-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12600000

# Full-Time Workers (Table A-9) http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12500000

# Multiple Jobholders as a Percent of Employed (Table A-9) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12026620

# Civilian non-institutional population
Seasonally adjusted (they seem to have gotten rid of this) https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS10000000
NOT seasonally adjusted: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU00000000

# Black unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000006

# Hispanic or Latino unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000009

# White unemployment rate (%), https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000003

LFPR - Labor Force Participation Rate for some age groups
The LFPR is the Employed + jobless people who have looked for work in the last 4 weeks (and say they want a job and are able to take one if offered). All divided by the civilian non-institutional population age 16+.
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300000
25-34: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU01300097

LFPR - Labor Force Particpation Rate (prime age 25-54) by gender
All: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
Men: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300061
Women: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300062


ETPR - Employment to Population Ratio for some age groups
SA means Seasonally adjusted. NSA means Not Seasonally Adjusted
16+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300000
25-34: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300089 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300089
25-54: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300060 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300060
55+: SA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12324230 NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02324230
65+: SA: ---------------- NSA: http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNU02300097

Inflation rate (CPI)
. . . Monthly report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
. . . Calculator at: https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Grocery prices (food at home) inflation compared to overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.in2013dollars.com/Food-at-home/price-inflation
. . . From 1947 to 2021 and from 2000 to 2021, food at home inflation very slightly lagged the overall inflation rate
. . . . . https://www.democraticunderground.com/10142735789

Data series finder: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

[JohnSJ]

15. This was a terrific jobs report. We have gained 9 out of 10 jobs lost from the pandemic

[Bayard]

16. 3.8%!!

Phenomenal, and encouraging.

And Joe won't get credit for any of it.