Russian Air Force already lost four newest Su-34 fighter-bombers in Ukraine

[AntiFascist]

Source: Defense Blog



Russian Armed Forces reportedly have suffered heavy losses with 11,000 men dead and over 1000 pieces of large hardware lost, including modern combat aircraft.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense on Sunday reported that Russian Su-34s struck at Ukrainian military infrastructure and civilian residents in Kharkiv, Chernihiv during an invasion.

According to the observer under the Oryx nickname, one Fullback was shot down on March 1st, two more were shot down on March 5th and one yesterday, March 6th.

...

In a statement, the Ukrainian General Staff said that since the beginning of the war, the Ukrainian army has destroyed 46 Russian-owned aircraft and 68 helicopters.


Read more: https://defence-blog.com/russian-air-force-already-lost-four-newest-su-34-fighter-bombers-in-ukraine/

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I hope this is considered a reliable source. From their website: "Defence Blog is your reliable news source of everything that you need to know about what is going on in the military community and abroad including military vehicles and equipment, breaking news, international news and more."

[Stuckinthebush]

1. 11,000 dead!? That's massive

For comparison, US military deaths in the entirety of the Vietnam war = 58,220.

[Wingus Dingus]

4. Those are Ukrainian estimates, which are probably high. US estimate--

without much confidence--is around 4500.

[Sapient Donkey]

21. Even that 4.5k is a lot for less than two weeks in terms of modern warfare

in which a vastly superior force vs a fairly tiny military. I wonder the total number of wounded are.

[Wingus Dingus]

22. Yes. It seems unsustainable, and they haven't really started taking Kyiv yet.

[Deminpenn]

51. Couple days ago, heard McCaffery say that

he now believed Russian casualties were 30k or more. Can't recall what made him change his mind, maybe the Russian Army pulling back from Kyiv.

[Wingus Dingus]

53. That's insane. They're leaving a lot of their dead there, so maybe

it changes how they make estimates.

[Irish_Dem]

7. Doesn't seem possible they could have so many casualties in a short period of time.

[TomWilm]

12. ... but the graphics says so!

Link to tweet

It is very stupid to put out such BS. They totally lose credibility...

[uncle ray]

23. heres a site tracking equipment losses with verifiable photographic proof.

[link:https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html|

it stands to reason there are many we do not have photos of currently, and that the human losses claimed are similarly accurate.

[AntiFascist]

27. Wow, interesting how much Russian equipment is captured...

it might operate under the radar, so to speak.

[SheltieLover]

31. Don't forget they are openly broadcasting comms for the world to hear!

[Irish_Dem]

33. Yes, and maybe some other things are going on?

I saw a video a couple of days ago with a young Russian solider captured by the Ukrainians and he was on a phone call to this mother. He was telling her, very upset, that the Russian officers were killing injured troops in the field, not giving them medical care. He said the Ukrainian soldiers were being taken to the hospital.

Given the level of incompetence, and hubris of the Russians, I could see them not bringing field hospitals, medics, medical supplies. So while I don't know if the video I saw is accurate, I think it could be.

Also, who knows, maybe the generals are so angry with the way things are going, they are blaming the troops in the field. And as a way to motivate them Russian style, shooting some of them?

I am sure Putin is putting the generals under a great deal of pressure. And the Russians are notorious for their disregard for all life, including their own soldiers. The troops are probably angry about being lied to about the invasion, having no food, no fuel, being cold and tired by this time. And their paychecks are now worthless. Generals and troops very angry at each other in the field does not make for a good combination.

In terms of the comm situation, someone here said that the Ukrainians have also hacked even the secure Russian comm lines.

I know, it is like the Russians are putting targets on their own backs.

[SheltieLover]

37. Wow!

I hadn't thought about them shooting their own soldiers.

Impossible to adopt that type of callous mindset.

Anonymous has been doing a lot to hack Russian media outlets, too.

[Irish_Dem]

38. Yes Russian officers are notorious for the callous treatment of their troops.

Oh yes Anonymous is said to be helping Ukraine too. That is great.

[Aristus]

49. There's a story from WWII, the authenticity of which is open to question:

When the Americans and Soviets met up at the Elba River, cutting Germany in half, an American general was trading notes with his Russian counterpart, and asked him how he cleared mine fields. The Russian general responded that he would just run a battalion of infantry through it.

[Irish_Dem]

50. Interesting story.

True or not, it says something about how the Russian military is viewed.

[Unwind Your Mind]

40. I read the twitter thread on that

And, Russian speakers were saying that was a bad translation and that what he said was something like everyone was killed, not that the Russians killed the wounded.

Yes, it’s people on twitter, grain of salt. But, I haven’t seen it from any other source either.

[Irish_Dem]

44. Thank you, I had not read the update!

So maybe the RU officers are not shooting the wounded.

I still wonder about the quality of medical care for RU wounded. The Russians seem so incompetent and callous.

[COL Mustard]

24. Putin won't be able to hide that magnitude of loss for long

I heard today that the official Russian death toll was 498. You can't cover up the loss of over 10,000 of your country's young men, Volodya.

[Mr.Bill]

2. For perspective, They lost

15,000 in Afghanistan in ten years.

[patphil]

3. Putin should be concerned. This war is showing exactly how weak his military is.

He can't expect to intimidate the West if he can't even make a good show against a small nation.
Of course, Russia's stake in this is just Putin's ego. Ukraine is fighting for home and family.

[Irish_Dem]

5. The Su-34 is a $40 million dollar aircraft. And they lost four of them?

The article also says Russia has lost a total of 46 aircraft and 68 helicopters. This is costing Putin some real money.

[COL Mustard]

36. Well, that was before the Ruble cratered.

Now I think they might go for about $50!

Nice going, Putin!

[Eyeball_Kid]

41. I might be wrong about this,

but the deflation of the Ruble means that those aircraft would cost Russia several hundred million dollars each if they are trying to replace them.

But...oh... they can't replace them! That's because of the sanctions on high tech components. So there is no replacing those fancy "fullback" jets.

Vlad the Butcher is having shit fits.

[COL Mustard]

45. I love it when a plan falls apart.

I love it when nothing goes well for the bad guys.

[calguy]

6. While I don't think these numbers are reliable....

it is obvious that Russia is paying a much higher price than they ever thought they would.

[AntiFascist]

9. The number of 4 SU-34s seems to come from an intelligence source...

backed up by photos which are posted on the blog.

The greater numbers are reported by the Ukrainian government.

[calguy]

13. I'm sure they're inflicting a lot more pain than Putin ever thought

I'm just saying a lot of those numbers are probably a bit inflated.

[AntiFascist]

15. I posted this because of the statement and photo evidence of SU-34s being shot down...

but I think we realize that the statements made by Ukraine may be inflated in order to keep up morale of the Ukrainians who are staying in Ukraine.

[relayerbob]

8. Hard to know how reliable those numbers are but...

But the number of destroyed and captured equipment with video reports makes those numbers not that far off. They are posting tail numbers on many of the aircraft and choppers they can reach.

[mitch96]

10. Well at 36 million a pop, that's gotta hurt. russias loss of blood and treasure...nt

[paleotn]

11. Cut it in half and it's still brutal

5 to 6K casualties (KIA, wounded, captured or missing) would seem more believable. But that's still rough. Worse yet is the loss of equipment. 20 to 30M per aircraft. hundreds of thousands to millions per vehicle, depending on type, tanks, APCs, complex mobile SAMs. And the meter is still running. Can Putin afford to make war like this? He certainly can't replace the losses easily under sanctions. Too many high tech pieces parts involved.

[Eyeball_Kid]

42. Russia brought in portable crematoriums to UKR.

Sorry, ma'am. We lost track of your son in the Russian army. We'll get back to you as soon as we can find him... (time to open that bottle of vodka...). He's somewhere in the dust.

[GB_RN]

14. Not To Sound Glib, But...

Ha-ha!

[jgmiller]

16. In general the side that is winning always over estimates the loss of the losing

and the losing side always under reports their losses so they don't upset the people at home.

As with most things the truth is probably somewhere in the middle and I would think around 5,000 killed on the Russian side seems likely or maybe even a little high.

I noticed one person said the 11,000 in such a short time seems shockingly high. It is if you are just looking at the last 30 years or so of wars the US has fought. Remember though this war is playing out a lot more like WW2 or earlier so far, lots of infantry and armour with no one having gained air superiority. When you do it this way you can very easily rack up large death totals quickly. Think of the Civil War, Gettysburg had almost 8,000 deaths in just two days of fighting.

[IamHappy]

17. I hope this is true.

However, I will accept more russian military equipment be destroyed.

[FailureToCommunicate]

18. We have seen lots of photos of destroyed tanks and armored vehicles. Each of them would...

manned by multiple soldiers, so clearly Russian losses are higher by orders of magnitude evidenced by the burned out equipment.

[thenelm1]

20. Anti-tank weapons can be very nasty to anyone inside the tank.

Tanks are heavily armored. They can be incapacitated by destroying or damaging the engine and/or the wheels and track, which, in a lot of cases, can be repaired given the available resources. On the other hand, most modern anti-tank weapons are designed to penetrate the hull with HEAT shaped charges which effectively focus the explosive energy and resulting high heat payload to a small location to penetrate the armor and raise holy hell on the interior of the vehicle. If that happens to be the crew cabin or the tank's stowed ammo, the chances of survival are pretty slim. (Rather over simplicated, but should serve to illustrate the result.)

[EX500rider]

28. The Javelin missile is a top attack missile that comes down on the thin top armor

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FGM-148_Javelin

[modrepub]

19. Pilots and Special Forces Personnel

are far more valuable than equipment (for the most part). You can generally replace a piece of equipment. The person that can efficiently operate that equipment is not so (quickly) replaced.

War is a game of attrition. Can Russia replace destroyed/captured equipment fast enough to keep the invasion moving forward? That's a great question. There's ample evidence that they are having a hard time resupplying their forces and battle losses may not be easily replaced if you can't move things properly.

What will be interesting in the coming weeks, if this stretches out this long, is if the forces of Ukraine can actually roll up the Russian invasion forces. Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians may be able to tap into an almost unlimited source of support from the west. If Ukraine keeps the will to fight, uses their resources strategically and drags this out the results may surprise a lot of so called experts.

[monkeyman1]

25. In ww11 ,Russians were never good at strategy!

they believed in throwing mass amounts of people at enemy ! they were poorly armed & the logistics sucked ! same strategy , different decade !

[modrepub]

32. Big Difference

Stalin had almost unlimited equipment and resources provided by the Allies (mainly US $). Human resources weren't a problem obviously for him, but he also had an enemy in Nazi Germany that basically gave no quarter. Caught between those 2 extremes, an enemy that was trying to totally annihilate you and a government who thought you were cattle, Soviet moral was pretty good.

It remains to be seen if Putin can keep his Army together on a shoe string and keep their will to fight against an enemy who seems more determined every day. History indicates war can be pretty brutal in this part of the world. I suspect Ukraine is going to become less forgiving if Russian tactics start taking a turn towards how the Balkan War went. Long brutal sieges around isolated urban areas.

[Hieronymus Phact]

34. Today's wars are "Come as you are" wars.

Advanced military equipment is too complex to be replaced rapidly. It takes some time to manufacture and field a high-performance fighter jet. These losses will not be replaced for some time, they will need to move assets from other areas to cover them. This war will probably be over before they can replace this stuff with fresh new equipment.

[Eyeball_Kid]

43. Sanctions are an additional, and perhaps fatal, headache.

Those high tech jets cannot be replaced because of sanctions. It's doubtful that Russia has a big inventory of high tech parts for their big jets. Now that sanctions are in effect, those high tech jets become hangar ornaments.

[Deminpenn]

52. The supply and logistics battle is going to move to the sea next

Not a military expert at all, but it looks like Russia is trying to re-supply from the Black Sea. The US has a carrier group not too far way, but it won't get involved in fighting. But that CG could be a source of supply and re-supply of whatever navy Ukraine has.

There was an earlier thread about Ukraine sinking a Russian landing ship.

[modrepub]

54. Supplying An Army Via Water

is always easier. McClellan had that part right in the Civil War. Richmond fell with the Army of the Potomac supplied from James River using river transport, not from the railroads that connected the east coast cities. The road and railroad systems could move 10-15 thousand men. Moving and supplying an Army close to 100k was not possible except by more efficient river transports.

That said, the Russian Navy outside of their submarines is pretty crappy. They don't have a functioning shipyard and have basically bought scrap vessles in an attempt to rebuild them into something they can use. When they sent their air craft carrier to support operations in Syria it broke down and had to be towed.

Putin basically has a well functioning cyber apparatus, some nuclear capabilities and maybe some submariens. The Russian military budget is less than 10% of ours and a lot of it has probably been diverted to buy super yachts. They may have a larger navy numerically but they can't replace ships quickly so any loses are going to degrade their ability to use them as a supply system. More apt to mine the hell out of Ukrainian ports to do as much damage as possible.

An observation from Nassim Nicholas Taleb after the Russian fuel depot was hit:

"[H]ow long before Russia starts asking for territorial guarantees & protection from Ukrainian aggression?"

[COL Mustard]

26. If I were in the Ukrainian Army

I'd be trying to grab all that abandoned stuff for immediate battlefield resupply. It's the same stuff they're already using and trained on, or maybe even newer. Every farmer should get a reward for grabbing and handing over any tank, APC, fuel truck, or whatever they can grab.

[relayerbob]

29. And by all incidations, they are

[Yorkist]

30. Yeah...

…..there’s a reward scheme for seizing Russian gear been talked about, and apparently the Ukrainian public don’t need to declare the proceeds of selling any tanks they might happen to accidentally find themselves owners of.

[machoneman]

35. The Uke army needs those tanks, APCs and missiles. They are very familiar with them as the Uke army.

Uses the same equipment. Just one tank blocking a road net, protected by the building it backed into or protected by those movable concrete road barriers can stop a whole lot of enemy tanks for sure.

[BlueWavePsych]

39. Nice!

[Emile]

46. Amazing!

[oasis]

47. Putin's Plot Kaput. nt

[LetMyPeopleVote]

48. "Equipment losses of the Russian occupiers reach $10 billion," #Ukraine 24 reported

Link to tweet