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BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 09:29 PM Mar 2022

Venezuela Releases Imprisoned Americans After Talks With U.S.

Source: New York Times

Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere. The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years. “This is a step that we’re taking to inflict further pain on Putin, but there will be costs as well here in the United States,” Mr. Biden said of the ban on Russian oil.

American officials said that the prisoner release was not part of a deal with Venezuela to restart oil sales to the United States, which were banned under the Trump administration. For weeks, American business people who have worked in Venezuela have had back-channel discussions about resuming America’s oil trade with Mr. Maduro’s government.Venezuela could eventually help make up some of the shortfall caused by the ban on Russian oil. But industry experts warned that Venezuelan oil supplies would do little to tame American gas prices and inflation quickly.

Increasing the country’s production may take time after the years of mismanagement and underinvestment that have decimated the country’s energy sector. Prominent members of Congress have also come out against efforts to thaw relations with Mr. Maduro, whose government has been accused by the United Nations of systematic human rights violations.“Nicolás Maduro is a cancer to our hemisphere and we should not breathe new life into his reign of torture and murder,” Senator Bob Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat who leads the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said Monday in a statement.

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/world/americas/venezuela-american-prisoner-release.html





This is some serious behind-the-scenes maneuvering here.
25 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Venezuela Releases Imprisoned Americans After Talks With U.S. (Original Post) BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 OP
Yes it is Cheezoholic Mar 2022 #1
Working every angle BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #3
Then there's this... herding cats Mar 2022 #4
After all that work that Kerry did to put the original agreement together BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #5
They have indeed! herding cats Mar 2022 #6
Plus BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #7
I was about to post this! herding cats Mar 2022 #2
The hell it is not about the oil. Of course it is. hlthe2b Mar 2022 #8
Information from the time of capture of the US mercenaries: Judi Lynn Mar 2022 #9
AP sources: Venezuela frees at least one jailed American Judi Lynn Mar 2022 #10
A chance for Venezuela to pull themselves up off the bathroom floor. Hulk Mar 2022 #11
So if I got this right.... James48 Mar 2022 #12
Wonder if Menendez shares the same thoughts rpannier Mar 2022 #13
Venezuela was an important source of fuel for The Allies in WWII. PufPuf23 Mar 2022 #14
Thank you for that historic perspective BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #15
+1 dalton99a Mar 2022 #16
This part is particularly notable BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #17
That country benefits from high oil prices more than most IronLionZion Mar 2022 #18
Hate to say that I agree and BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #19
OPEC is loving it. Venezuela is a founding member IronLionZion Mar 2022 #20
Well I remember when Russia and Saudi got into their production/price war BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #21
How does a negative price work? IronLionZion Mar 2022 #22
That's exactly what they are doing BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #24
Did President Guaido agree to this? roody Mar 2022 #23
With the money channels either cut off or getting further cut off between Russia and the world BumRushDaShow Mar 2022 #25

herding cats

(19,564 posts)
4. Then there's this...
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 09:40 PM
Mar 2022

Qatar mediates between Iran and US in nuclear talks

Qatar has stepped up its role in mediating between the US and Iran as western powers have been striving to convince wary Iranian leaders to ink a deal to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, according to people briefed on the talks.

After 11 months of EU-brokered indirect talks in Vienna, officials say time is running out. The Gulf state has been acting as an intermediary at the request of both Washington and Tehran, complementing the talks in the Austrian capital, in an effort to build trust between the longtime foes.

Doha has ferried messages between the protagonists and sought to allay Iranian concerns, including those related to its demand that the Biden administration provide a guarantee that no future US government is able to unilaterally abandon the deal, as former president Donald Trump did in 2018.

Qatari officials have also been working to facilitate direct talks between Washington and Tehran, should a deal be reached, to ensure that any outstanding issues, such as prisoner exchanges and additional sanctions relief, could be addressed in the future, a diplomat briefed on the talks said.

“Both sides really need a deal, and there’s a willingness on both sides, but the biggest problem is trust,” the diplomat said. “They each think the other side doesn’t want it, which is not legitimate.”
https://www.ft.com/content/1d93fef9-06f4-459f-9266-5d3b9272a495

So much going on right now.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
5. After all that work that Kerry did to put the original agreement together
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 09:51 PM
Mar 2022

I knew they would be working to get back to it.

Near the bottom of the NYT article is this -

The Venezuelan government wants to resume oil sales to the United States to take advantage of high oil prices and to replace the revenues from trade channels it built through the Russian financial system that have been frozen by Western nations to punish Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to officials and oil businessmen in the country.

Selling directly to the United States would also allow Mr. Maduro to reap full profits from the highest oil prices in more than a decade, instead of selling the crude at deep discount to a network of middlemen used to bypass the U.S. ban, they said.

Before that ban, Venezuela exported most of its oil to the United States, whose Gulf refineries were built to process the country’s heavy crude.


Someone was waving some "g"s.




herding cats

(19,564 posts)
6. They have indeed!
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 10:17 PM
Mar 2022

Russia isn't a very useful pal right now either. Putin has been leaving Maduro on read since he's so busy, and Russia doesn't have any extra cash to spare in South American ATM.

All we have to do is buy their oil at market price and Maduro will be thrilled to sell it to us.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
7. Plus
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 10:22 PM
Mar 2022

as I think the article noted - the "electronic" financial channels are or are being completely cut off so it would be difficult for any transactions to occur between Venezuela and Russia at the moment and probably near impossible in the future as more channels get shut down.

I know Menendez is about to kick up a fuss but see I know that decades before Menendez was elected Senator and ended up on that Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Biden was not only ON that Committee but had been both Ranking Member and Chair for years. So Biden knows all the behind the scenes stuff in terms of foreign dealings (which was why Obama picked him for VP - to bolster that aspect of the administration).

Judi Lynn

(160,525 posts)
9. Information from the time of capture of the US mercenaries:
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 10:53 PM
Mar 2022

Venezuela: 2 US ‘mercenaries’ among those nabbed after raid
By SCOTT SMITH and JOSHUA GOODMAN
May 4, 2020

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro said authorities arrested two U.S. citizens among a group of “mercenaries” on Monday, a day after a beach raid purportedly aimed at capturing the socialist leader that authorities say they foiled.

Maduro held up a pair of blue U.S. passports, reading off the names and birth dates on them in a nationwide broadcast on state television. He showed images of the fishing boats the alleged attackers rode in on and equipment like walkie-talkies and night-vision glasses collected in what Maduro called an “intense” couple of days. He blamed the attacks on the Trump administration and neighboring Colombia, both of which have denied involvement.

“The United States government is fully and completely involved in this defeated raid,” Maduro said, praising members of a fishing village for cornering one group in the sweep netting the “professional American mercenaries. Before dawn on Sunday, officials say the first attack started on a beach near Venezuela’s port city of La Guaira, when security forces made the first two arrests and killed eight others attempting to make a landing by speedboats.

. . .

The two U.S. citizens arrested Monday were identified as as Luke Denman and Airan Berry, both former U.S. special forces soldiers. Florida-based ex-Green Beret Jordan Goudreau said earlier Monday that he was working with the two men in a mission intending to detain Maduro and “liberate” Venezuela. Goudreau has claimed responsibility for the operation.

More:
https://apnews.com/article/caribbean-ap-top-news-venezuela-international-news-television-fb3b0e84b1d58cb876fd38c7a9493fd5



Judi Lynn

(160,525 posts)
10. AP sources: Venezuela frees at least one jailed American
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 11:02 PM
Mar 2022

REGINA GARCIA CANO, JOSHUA GOODMAN and ERIC TUCKER,
Associated Press
March 8, 2022
Updated: March 8, 2022 8:51 p.m.

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — The Venezuelan government freed at least one jailed American on Tuesday night as it seeks to improve relations with the Biden administration, which is looking to undercut support for Russia in Latin America.

A nongovernmental group that tracks arbitrary detentions and another person familiar with the matter confirmed to The Associated Press the release of Gustavo Cardenas, one of six oil executives jailed for more than four years.

. . .

Three other Americans are also being held in Venezuela — two former Green Berets, Luke Denman and Airan Berry, who were arrested for their involvement in a confusing plot to overthrow Maduro, and former U.S. Marine Matthew Heath, detained on weapons charges.

. . .

The weekend discussions came a little more than three years after the U.S. broke off relations with Maduro and recognized opposition leader Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. The talks came together after months of backchannel efforts by intermediaries — American lobbyists, Norwegian diplomats and international oil executives — who have been pushing for U.S. President Joe Biden to revisit the so-far-unsuccessful “maximum pressure” campaign to unseat Maduro that he inherited from the Trump administration.

More:
https://www.chron.com/news/article/Maduro-signals-interest-in-better-Venezuela-US-16985526.php

 

Hulk

(6,699 posts)
11. A chance for Venezuela to pull themselves up off the bathroom floor.
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 11:02 PM
Mar 2022

WE don't have to buy their oil...but Europe and much of the rest of the world sure could use a shot of oil...especially at these inflated prices.

Muduro is a piece of shit...but his country NEEDS the revenue!

James48

(4,435 posts)
12. So if I got this right....
Tue Mar 8, 2022, 11:45 PM
Mar 2022

The Biden administration is quietly working to resolve issues and open communications that could lead to both Iran and Venezuela suddenly having improved relations and new oil sales.

And I bet several big oil companies are ready to walk in and help renew and rebuild both nation’s oil industries.

Who could guess?

PufPuf23

(8,769 posts)
14. Venezuela was an important source of fuel for The Allies in WWII.
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 12:41 AM
Mar 2022

The World's two largest refineries were in the Dutch Antilles, specifically Curacao and Aruba.

The two refineries manufactured the majority of aviation fuel used by the Allies in Europe.

The crude came from the Maracaibo Basin in western Venezuela, the richest oil patch in the Western hemisphere.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
15. Thank you for that historic perspective
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 09:08 AM
Mar 2022

And especially since I found this from last year -

April 19, 20213:57 PM EDT Last Updated a year ago
Aruba looks towards long-idled oil refinery, as tourism drop pummels economy
By Luc Cohen



SAN NICOLAS, Aruba, April 19 (Reuters) - A collapse in tourism due to the coronavirus pandemic has sent Aruba toward one of the world's biggest economic contractions, prompting the island to try to diversify beyond its sun and sand image, namely by restarting a long-idled oil refinery. Assistance from the Netherlands helped the Caribbean island finance a stimulus program, blunting the impact of the economy's 25.5% contraction on workers and businesses in 2020. That downturn was behind only Libya, Maldives and Venezuela, International Monetary Fund (IMF) data show.

But those subsidies led to an increase in Aruba's fiscal deficit to 17% of gross domestic product (GDP), according to the IMF, prompting some experts and residents to argue the island should diversify its economy to ensure the government can balance its budget without Dutch assistance. The 67% drop in tourism arrivals was devastating for small businesses like Aruba Bob Snorkeling, which used to run multiple tours a day before the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

"When COVID came around, they just came crashing down to once a day, once or twice a week, and then to nothing at all," said instructor and part-owner Jesus Maduro, 30, while sipping coffee under the shade of solar panels in the company's tree-filled backyard. But the company kept up rent and electricity payments thanks to quarterly 4,000 florin ($2,247.19) subsidies from the government. Such payments helped keep company closures below 2019 levels, said Martijn Balkestein, executive director of Aruba's Chamber of Commerce.

As a constituent country of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, Aruba is receiving assistance from Amsterdam. The Netherlands has agreed to cover Aruba's financing needs during the pandemic contingent on economic reforms, such as cuts in public sector salaries implemented last year. But Dutch officials have said they ultimately expect Aruba, as well as other constituent Caribbean islands Curacao and Sint Maarten - which are part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands but have autonomy over domestic affairs - to be self-reliant.

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/aruba-looks-towards-long-idled-oil-refinery-tourism-drop-pummels-economy-2021-04-19/


It would not be surprising to see the refinery in Aruba that the article mentions was considering restarting, would be something that got fast-tracked, considering you have this fact -

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=33732



The Netherlands has probably already started making some phone calls and whatnot as one of the biggest importers of Russian oil/gas behind China and alongside Germany.

In fact, I just found this more recent chart -



(graphic from and article here - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/russia-oil-uk-ban-ukraine-b2031228.html)

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
17. This part is particularly notable
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 09:40 AM
Mar 2022
the impact of the economy's 25.5% contraction on workers and businesses in 2020. That downturn was behind only Libya, Maldives and Venezuela


Libya oil production falls after 2 crucial fields shut down

Libya’s national oil company says that an armed group has shut down two crucial oil fields, causing the country’s daily production of oil to drop by 330,000 barrels

By BY SAMY MAGDY Associated Press
March 6, 2022, 12:15 PM


CAIRO -- Libya’s national oil company said Sunday that an armed group has shut down two crucial oil fields, causing the country's daily production of oil to drop by 330,000 barrels. The state-run National Oil Corporation said the group closed pump valves at the Sharara field, Libya’s largest, and el-Feel, effectively stopping production in both areas. Before the shutdown, Libya’s production of oil was at around 1.2 billion barrels per day.

Company head Mustafa Sanallah announced a force majeure, a legal maneuver that lets a company get out of its contracts because of extraordinary circumstances. He said the closures cost Libya more than $160 million ($34.6 million) per day in lost revenues. Sanallah said the NOC has urged public prosecutors “to take deterrent measures” and reveal “the planners, executors and the beneficiaries” of the shutdown. The same militia disrupted oil production at both fields in 2014 and 2016, he added.

An oil official in the capital Tripoli said the militia that shut down the fields is from the mountainous town of Zintan, around 136 kilometers (over 84 miles) southwest of Tripoli. Tribal leaders in the area were negotiating with the militia leaders to allow the resumption of oil production, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to brief the media.

The shutdown came as the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shaken markets worldwide, causing crude oil prices to soar above $115 per barrel. Libya has the ninth largest known oil reserves in the world, and the biggest oil reserves in Africa. The dizzying developments in Libya’s oil fields have come amid a mounting standoff between two rival governments which threaten to again drag the country into chaotic infighting.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/libya-oil-production-falls-crucial-fields-shut-83283515


I suppose if one looks at all the previous "axis of evil" and "banned" oil producers, Libya's looks to be the trickiest to deal with due to their continual sectarian/tribal kingdom issues. But Venezuela and Iran (where the latter is being furiously worked on to get that original Kerry agreement back in force), could be potential supplements for the short term.

IronLionZion

(45,433 posts)
18. That country benefits from high oil prices more than most
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 01:07 PM
Mar 2022

so the current supply/demand situation could help their people but I wouldn't hold my breath. Corruption and mismanagement is a major problem there. Maduro needs to go.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
19. Hate to say that I agree and
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 01:30 PM
Mar 2022

trusted Chavez more than this guy... but an opportunity opened up to get oil back in supply (at least in terms of calming the legit futures traders vs the speculators who are gouging). And it's not for us but for Europe who has pinned most of their energy needs to Russia and are now in a bind.

And that would parallel this Venezuela effort would be what is going on with respect to negotiations with Iran and getting their agreement back in place, and that would probably mean the potential for getting their oil back into circulation.

It normally would be a tall order to "turn" Putin-supporting heads of state but the $$$$ is too tempting and a brand new marketplace has just opened up.

I also noticed that OPEC has seemingly been left out of these discussions.

IronLionZion

(45,433 posts)
20. OPEC is loving it. Venezuela is a founding member
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 01:43 PM
Mar 2022

They have decided not to increase production to compensate for Russia. Oil investors took a major hit during COVID and don't want to invest in more drilling when they can reap profits now without it.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
21. Well I remember when Russia and Saudi got into their production/price war
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 02:06 PM
Mar 2022
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213319463

And they effectively "ignored OPEC" as they dumped oil onto the market for a couple months (and I still post this image) -



This is how one peels away countries to stroke their self-interests.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
24. That's exactly what they are doing
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 05:44 PM
Mar 2022

"paying people" (or at least offering to do so) to store the excess! I know that is the last thing that any producer would want to do.

BumRushDaShow

(128,900 posts)
25. With the money channels either cut off or getting further cut off between Russia and the world
Wed Mar 9, 2022, 06:00 PM
Mar 2022

they really don't have much of a choice at this point.

Like Zelensky, Guaido is "young" (in fact he is younger than Zelensky) and unfortunately (or maybe "fortunately" as a teaching tool) what is going on now is a lesson in how real "world politics" happens. Maduro is old enough to be his father and probably knows the ropes.

When a new leader comes into power in another country, other leaders have had to learn to adapt. Certainly after Obama left and before Biden came into office, the world saw that stark reality from this country.

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