Foreign policy experts call for 'limited no-fly zone' over Ukraine

[AntiFascist]

Source: The Hill

A group of foreign policy experts are calling for a "limited no-fly zone" over Ukraine that would protect established safe corridors for those evacuating the country and "deter Russian bombardment" to protect civilians.

In an open letter to the Biden administration that was first reported by Politico, 27 foreign policy experts urged for a "limited No-Fly Zone over Ukraine starting with protection for humanitarian corridors that were agreed upon in talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials on Thursday."

"What we seek is the deployment of American and NATO aircraft not in search of confrontation with Russia but to avert and deter Russian bombardment that would result in massive loss of Ukrainian lives. This is in addition to the request from Ukrainian leaders for A-10 and MIG-29 aircraft to help Ukrainians defend themselves, which we also strongly support," the group later added.

The foreign policy experts noted that a rapid number of people were fleeing Ukraine and said that the country was facing a "severe humanitarian disaster."

Read more: https://thehill.com/policy/international/597279-foreign-policy-experts-call-for-limited-no-fly-zone-over-ukraine

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Based on his past behavior in Syria, Putin will likely turn to massive aerial bombardment due to his frustrations in Ukraine. "By taking Poland's offer off the table, we are conveying to Moscow that we can be intimidated."

[PortTack]

1. This sounds like a workable solution.

Fucking putin!

[Ahpook]

2. Curious

Why would they specifically point their request to the Biden administration? Shouldn't this be directed to NATO?

I'm with the Biden administration on this and to not get directly involved. Well, at the moment anyway.

[AntiFascist]

3. I think Europe should take the lead since they are the most at risk...

but we should also be obligated to back them up completely. Poland was willing to give up their MIGs, but maybe they should have taken this up with NATO?

[LudwigPastorius]

4. How do you "avert and deter" without confrontation?

Perhaps they believe that the worst that could happen with planes shooting down other planes in a "limited no-fly zone" is a "limited" nuclear war?

[AntiFascist]

7. I would think that Russia would have to agree to these corridors in the first place...

the "avert and deter" strategy would then be to reinforce this agreement and to keep any trigger-happy Russian air force from repeating what happened at the maternity and children's hospital earlier, which cannot be any good public relation-wise for Putin!

[eggplant]

10. They already did. It's in the OP.

[left-of-center2012]

5. It's just not going to happen

It has been explained repeatedly how it could widen the war and bring us into direct conflict with Russia.

[Cognitive_Resonance]

9. Russia won't stop with Ukraine. Credible figures in western military circles are openly advocating

taking measured risk now (establish no-fly zone, provide combat jets) to prevent Ukraine from falling. If I had nickel for every time something's not going to happen and then it happens...stand-by

[left-of-center2012]

13. Uh huh

Not going to happen

[Lancero]

22. Not that long ago some people were saying Western fears of a Russian invasion were fearmongering.

One week later...

Seriously though, you've got far to much faith in Putin. If the man was reasonable, he'd never have ordered a invasion into Ukraine. Thinking he'll stop with Ukraine is far more credit than he deserves. Hell, one of his closest allies fucked up and let a picture of their invasion maps - Showcasing their plans for Moldova - be made public.

Maybe the Russian people will rise up against him. Not likely though, given the public support for the war - More than half of Russia is for it, and less than a quarter against it. The people smart enough and with the means to are fleeing Russia in droves, the rest... Well, Russia is quickly turning into a larger version of North Korea.

[left-of-center2012]

25. You misrepresent what I am saying

I have no faith in Putin.
Do not put words in my mouth.

[Sapient Donkey]

23. I don't see how Putin can do anything outside of Ukraine

How much of his forces are committed to Ukraine? I read reports that everything they built up has been committed to the fight. There are reports of them loading up forces from the East and sending them west. I suppose they could try to take on NATO with that, but those won't do them any good without fuel and and ability to get that fuel where it needs to be. There are videos of civilian trucks/vans with Z markings on trains heading west. Is there any analysis from trusted sources that believes Putin can wage an expanded war with the US and all of Europe?

[moondust]

6. I have to assume

that Pentagon experts including some Putin psychoanalysts are gaming out various scenarios to determine which could be viable and effective vs. which would likely be a mistake--based on active intelligence and capabilities on the ground.

[soryang]

8. a no fly zone is a euphemism

for war zone.

[AntiFascist]

11. Conflict will happen sooner or later...

Putin will probably not stop, as much as you may wish for a diplomatic solution.

[cstanleytech]

12. I think the sanctions as long as they are enforced will provide an incentive to Russia.

Providing of course that its made clear to Russia that the level of sanctions will be directly linked to the amount of Ukraine territory the Russians have seized and that the sanctions will not be completely lifted until the Russians withdraw entirely out of the Ukraine and pay the Ukraine war reparations.

[J_William_Ryan]

14. They're 'experts'

At starting WWIII.

[Marcuse]

15. Russia's SAMs put it in a better position to enforce a no fly zone of its own.

[2live is 2fly]

31. Any of These Pre-wall?

Of these systems, which are the oldest and is there a possibilty (if old enough) some of these systems may still remain in inventories (similar to the (supposed=24) number Migs Poland has) of what the former Soviets referred to as their Warsaw pack countrys?

[Marcuse]

33. The system is new.

[AntiFascist]

32. Russia can't even establish air superiority...

Ukraine anti-aircraft systems are keeping them engaged. They can only handle "quick sorties" out of Russia to do things like bomb hospitals.

[Marcuse]

34. SAM systems parked in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia can enforce a no fly zone.

[link:https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russia-s-s-400-missile-system-gains-first-blood-in-ukraine-su-27-shot-down-150km-away-reports|

[AntiFascist]

35. Yes I understand that SAM systems have a long range and can operate from Russia...

I'm just pointing out what an expert said on cable news this morning, regarding Russia being unable to establish air superiority over Ukraine.

[Marcuse]

36. You are right. The experts were expecting a mini "Shock & Awe".

[Orrex]

16. Can someone explain to me...

how, when faced with a NATO-enforced No-Fly zone, Putin won't claim that NATO has attacked Russia and that he's therefore justified in a full military response against any and all NATO members?

[AntiFascist]

17. The OP is about enforcing a no-fly zone over agreed upon humanitarian corridors only...

and Putin can justify a military response anytime, since the sanctions are already considered acts of war by him.

[Orrex]

18. Did Russia agree to establish the no-fly zone?

Or did they agree, nominally, to allow the humanitarian corridors?

If the former, then great! Let's get the planes in the air right now.

If only the latter, then Putin will direct his air force to shoot down NATO planes over Ukraine.

I agree with you that a diplomatic solution will not stop Putin, but it seems unlikely to me that he's going to initiate military attack upon NATO members over the sanctions, whereas it seems obvious that he will attack NATO in response to an enforced no-fly zone.

[AntiFascist]

19. Russia has agreed to cease fires and pausing hostilities in order to evacuate civilians...

but they have literally gotten away with mass murder since there is no way to enforce these. They are getting away with war crime after war crime and it just makes Biden and NATO look weak.

[Lancero]

21. "Agreed" and then promptly started shelling the agreed upon evac corridors.

Given how quickly they flipped on those, well... Pretty apparent that Russia never intended to let anyone out. All they were wanting was to trick Ukraines military into sticking their necks out.

Ukraine, sadly, thought better of the Russians and fell for that trick twice.

[cstanleytech]

24. If Ukraine was a member of NATO I might agree with you that it looks weak but it is not

therefore I find it intriguing to claim it looks weak for not coming with its full military might to Ukraine's defense.

[AntiFascist]

27. No one is suggesting using our "full military might" in the context of the OP...

that would involve 'boots on the ground', aircraft carriers launching offensive missions, etc.

Russia is already intimidated by the anti-aircraft capabilities of Ukraine, which is why they can't establish air superiority. What is being proposed would be purely defensive to protect humanitarian areas.

[Orrex]

26. The appearance of weakness is preferable to the reality of WWIII

Do you agree that Putin would identify the introduction of NATO aircraft as a deliberate act of war against Russia & justifying a full military response by Russia against NATO?

Russia is indeed committing mass murder and creating a humanitarian disaster, but it seems to me that the answer is not to throw the rest of Europe into the war zone.

[Slammer]

20. No limits detected

With whatever respect might be due the people who came up with this plan, I heard one of them trying to explain it on the Rachel Maddow Show.

And he literally said repeatedly that the US (or NATO) would determine what areas the Russian air force would be allowed to fly over while describing it as a limited no-fly zone. And specifically said when questioned that the "limited" no-fly zone wouldn't be limited to humanitarian corridors but to wherever we thought they were needed.

If I'm picking the zones you're allowed to fly over, that's not limited except by my own desires.

And Putin wouldn't put up with that any more than he'd put up with a "complete" no-fly zone.

He'd order a massive number of jets to go up hunting whatever we happened to have in the air. We'd be forced into shooting at least some of them down and likely lose some of our own.

Then both sides would have to figure out if they were willing to escalate by putting more planes in the air over Ukraine.

And Putin would likely pick up the tempo of destroying residential areas in Ukraine and shelling humanitarian corridors in retaliation.

If we're not willing to go in and end the war, these stupid toe-dipping-in-the-water plans are worse than nothing...because I guarantee you that countries in NATO are going to fracture their current unity faster if they start into a shooting war than Russia's leadership fractures.

[2live is 2fly]

28. Mig29's W/Volunteer Pilots Patrol Limited N-F Zone?

Last edited Thu Mar 10, 2022, 06:45 PM - Edit history (1)

Like to ask POTUS Biden. WTH is the difference between the U.S supplying Javalines & Stingers, or the U.S supplying Mig29 jets originally exchanged with Poland? Don't see how or why the alleged involvement of NATO in this third or even fourth party transfer would be relevant or any different than missiles or armed Turkish drones (TB2). THEY need to stop dancing around this question if indeed this is it i.e., the Migs in question originated in [Soviet-Block-] Poland? Doesn't seem likely (IMHO) as Poland swiftly took the initiative in preparing this exchange to take place ASAP. So what is the GD issue? The more we hear about Putins ego, the clearer gets another picture. It's one thing to get shot, but to get shot with your own gun (mig), now thats a totally different critter and Maybe a huge part of this whole thing! While the missile packages along w/TB2's, have no connection to Russias' (in Putins' mind) glorious past! Could that be the issue? The Migs umbilical cord to mother [USSR]ussia? Resolve this issue please cause man, Ukaine needs those planes.

[AntiFascist]

29. Someone on CNN just explained...

it's not the fear of triggering WW3, it's more the assessment that MIGs would not be that useful against the Russians, probably due to their AA capabilities.

I still think it should be possible, for non-US pilots and soldiers at least, to eliminate AA in designated humanitarian areas.

[madville]

30. Are they going to shoot down Russian aircraft that violate it?

Because if not, then it’s toothless and pointless.