Global Covid-19 death toll 'may be three times higher than official figures'

[muriel_volestrangler]

Last edited Fri Mar 11, 2022, 08:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Source: The Guardian

The Covid-19 pandemic may have claimed 18.2 million lives around the world, more than three times the official death toll, a new study suggests.

The higher figure is a better estimate of the true global casualty figure to the end of 2021, according to an analysis by a consortium of health researchers published in the Lancet.

They have based their calculation on the number of "excess deaths" which they believe were caused directly or indirectly by the pandemic. These are calculated by looking at the difference between the number of deaths recorded from all causes and the number of expected based on previous patterns.
...
The research is based on what Wang and his collaborators say are the first peer-reviewed estimates of excess deaths due to the pandemic in 191 countries and territories.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/10/global-covid-19-death-toll-may-be-three-times-higher-than-official-figures

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Understanding the true mortality impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for public health decision making. Our analysis suggests that 18·2 million (95% UI 17·1-19·6) people died globally because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) between the beginning of the pandemic (Jan 1, 2020) and the end of Dec 2021, which is 3·07-times (2·88-3·30) higher than the reported number of COVID-19-related deaths. Our findings indicate that the full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is suggested by official statistics. The highest COVID-19 excess mortality rates were observed in Andean Latin America, eastern Europe, and central Europe, with high mortality rates in many high-income northern hemisphere countries and similarly high rates in nearly all of Latin America. Comparatively low excess mortality rates were seen in east Asia, Australia, and high-income Asia Pacific. The April-August 2021 surge in south Asia brought cumulative excess mortality rates from the COVID-19 pandemic across that region up to or above the levels that were observed in some high-income countries. The cumulative global excess deaths from the pandemic makes COVID-19 potentially one of the leading global causes of death during the period of the pandemic, given the rates and trends in other causes of deaths before the pandemic.22

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736%2821%2902796-3/fulltext#seccestitle160

The IHME team collected data on the deaths from all causes in 74 countries and territories. For countries that do not produce such data, the authors used a statistical model to produce mortality estimates. The team's analysis indicates that reported deaths from the virus totalled 5.9 million between 1 January 2020 and 31 December 2021, but global excess deaths due to the pandemic for that period might have totalled 18.2 million.

The highest estimated excess death rates were in Andean Latin America (512 deaths per 100,000 population), eastern Europe (345 deaths per 100,000), central Europe (316 deaths per 100,000), southern sub-Saharan Africa (309 deaths per 100,000) and central Latin America (274 deaths per 100,000). Wang says his group's results are useful because they allow researchers to compare countries and regions that responded to the spread of the virus in different ways.

The IHME's results are the first estimate of excess deaths to appear in a peer-reviewed journal. A rival analysis being prepared by the World Health Organization (WHO) has run into delays but is scheduled to be published later this month.

The IHME's central estimate is similar to that of the The Economist magazine in London, which estimated some 18 million excess deaths by the end of 2021. But the error bars on the IHME's analysis are notably narrower.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0

[cstanleytech]

1. And a whole lot of Republicans bear a lot of responsibility and have blood of on their hands

for the number of deaths that occurred in this country because of their choosing to worship Trump and take his word as gospel that the news of the virus was all "fake".

[Hugin]

3. Something I witnessed and will never forget...

One of the biggest hoax blowhards I know literally had their best friend die of the virus right in front of them and they continued on their diatribes about how fake the pandemic is and protesting any mitigation efforts.

I ask you, how do you get through to that?

I don’t know the eventual status of the individual as I walked away stunned and avoided any further contact. I haven’t heard anything through the grapevine. I am thinking they didn’t make it.

[Hugin]

2. It makes some sense that Andean Latin America would have the highest rates...

Some of the world’s highest altitude populations, what is mostly (but, not all) a respiratory disease, thin cool dry air, & so on.

Also, if I recall correctly, even though it took large tolls in more populated areas, Delta was originally found there.

I think once the data has been collected for Omicron, it will be shocking compared to these numbers. Despite all through it’s wave there was a constant chorus about how mild it is. Much larger numbers particularly in the older (60+) population.

[peppertree]

4. Also, Bolivia and Peru have exceedingly high poverty

Those two countries, according to this estimate, appear to have the highest adjusted Covid death rates.

[Hugin]

8. For sure, poverty is right up there...

I was glancing at the reported hot spots to see if any correlation jumped out at me. It looks like climate and socioeconomic conditions were vying for the critical factor at that point in the pandemic. What I was surprised by is that population density wasn’t nearly as prominent. However, I don’t know the actual patterns of life in those areas. It might be even though there is a lower population there they live in closer situations.

[peppertree]

9. You're right. There seem to be few obvious correlations.

Excess mortality almost seems distributed at random. Poverty was a factor - but not reliably so; cold climates also contributed - but not necessarily:



Under-reporting, on the other hand, is clearly higher in poor and/or authoritarian countries (the old "if you admit you're sick - no soup for you!" )

[Hugin]

11. Based on my earlier observation of a link between climate and...

Fatality rates I would like to see a map of the rates overlaid over climatic regions instead of political boundaries. I have never seen such a thing. Of course it would be confounded by different nations reporting, but, could prove enlightening as to the role of climate in this particular disease. Also, a socioeconomic regional map.

It might possibly be useful in targeting vaccination drives to those populations of highest risk. Since like it or not global mitigation and treatment resources are terribly finite.

[peppertree]

17. A task made all the more difficult by the fact that many 3rd world nations keep poor data sets

Not only incomplete Covid morbidity/death data - but mortality data for all causes.

For most developed nations - and the more advanced ones in the 3rd world - they were able to guesstimate the under-reporting by simply taking 2020 mortality data (from all causes).

But for countries with spotty data, how can we really know?

Reminds of a documentary about the largest slum in São Paulo, Brazil.

They asked one of the community leaders if he knew how many people lived there. "I don't know," he said, "no census taker has ever come around."

The slum was as vast as the eye could see, in every direction.

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Delta was first found in India

It was the variant that really got the Greek letter naming going, since the Indian government objected to 'Indian variant'.

Yes, Omicron may still be a big problem, especially in unvaccinated (or without a booster in time) areas.

[Hugin]

7. Yes, I was mistaken...

It was Lambda which was found in Peru, December 2020.

Also from the Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanam/article/PIIS2667-193X(21)00108-3/fulltext (cookie alert) and Delta didn’t arrive until June 2021. That country anyway.

Thanks for pointing that out. My timeline on this is all messed up. Somewhere in there I’ve managed to lose an entire year.

[peppertree]

18. Something similar happened with the 'Gamma' variant

It was, of course, the Manaus variant - among the most contagious and deadliest of the lot thus far. It wrecked havoc across South America last year.

It's widely suspected it also killed many more in Florida than deSatan has been willing to admit - as Rebekah Jones can attest to.

[Farmer-Rick]

6. It's not over yet.....

There are still 1,500 Americans dying every day of COVID.

When that drops to 250, then you can claim it is equal to the flu.

I heard TFG claiming Biden was somehow killing people because of his support to Ukraine. While he totally ignored the millions of Americans he really did kill by doing nothing, downplaying and discouraging public health measures about a very deadly pandemic. We should call this the Trump pandemic. If not for him, the numbers would have been a lot smaller.

[SunSeeker]

15. THIS

[70sEraVet]

10. It certainly stands to reason, that if a nation's political leaders,

who are responsible for that nation's pandemic responses, are also in control of the official numbers of the dead from that pandemic, that those official numbers would be false.
For the same reason, I don't trust the numbers that are coming out of many U.S. states.

[Botany]

12. Thanx Donny Timeline of Trump's Coronavirus Responses

May 2018 The Trump Administration disbands the White House pandemic response team.

July 2019 The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency left the post, and the Trump Administration eliminated the role.

https://doggett.house.gov/media/blog-post/timeline-trumps-coronavirus-responses

[JudyM]

13. Thanks for posting this link, Botany, it's a fascinating look-back.

[Botany]

14. President Obama had left the needed resources in the people, protocols, materials, and links with ..

... other nation's health/science organizations in place that in all likelihood would have stopped
the virus in China or at least mitigated the spread of the disease in place but TFG got rid of all
of "that stuff."

[JudyM]

16. We knew but this should've been widely publicized. I hope it gets more press in '24 as a contrast

narrative for Biden.

[JCMach1]

19. Some countries just are not even bothering to count... We had a friend

Who recently passed away in in Saudi Arabia due to inherent racism and poor medical care

She died of it but was never diagnosed there...

[ProfessorGAC]

20. I Find This Believable

The actuaries I've known for decades have been telling me, for at least 18 months, that the US death rate was 30-40% over reported figures.
As I've never remotely be believed any figures out of China, India, Russia, Brazil, Indonesia and 80% of the countries the Middle East & northern Africa, i always believed those numbers were much higher.
I don't know I would have extrapolated to 3x, but I was certain it was far higher than reported.

[mackdaddy]

21. My Mother Passed last year, and not technically from Covid, but

She was exposed to Covid two days after her first Pfizer shot in January 2021. She had just turned 87, and was in a Covid treatment ward for nearly six weeks, but did survive.

But her health was extremely affected on both mentally and physically. She was now easily confused, and had to have two people transfer her from her bed to wheelchair instead of being able to do it herself.

She was back and forth between the Assisted Living facility and hospital many times for various reasons for the next months.

She finally passed in November from "Cardio Pulmonary failure". So she did not die on the statistics either "from COVID", or "with COVID" as some people try to push.

But there is no doubt in my mind that the damage done to her body by Covid shortened her life by many months or years. So yes, those numbers are most likely off.

And many people who had Covid and Survived will be dealing with lingering health issues for years.