Russia says first phase of Ukraine operation mostly complete, focus now on Donbass
Source: Reuters
Russia’s defence ministry said on Friday that the first phase of its military operation in Ukraine was mostly complete and that it would focus on completely “liberating” eastern Ukraine’s Donbass region.
The announcement appeared to indicate that Russia may be switching to more limited goals after running into fierce Ukrainian resistance in the first month of the war
Russian news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying that Russian-backed separatists now controlled 93% of Ukraine’s Luhansk region and 54% of the Donetsk region - the two areas that jointly make up the Donbass.
The ministry said it did not rule out storming Ukrainian cities that had been blockaded and that Russia would react immediately to any attempt to close the airspace over Ukraine - something Kyiv has asked NATO to do, but NATO has resisted.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-russia-military/russia-says-first-phase-of-ukraine-operation-mostly-complete-focus-now-on-donbass-idUSL5N2VS459
This is likely to mean a more concerted effort to push beyond the "line of contact" that separates Ukrainian government-held territory in the east of the country from the Russian-backed separatist "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk.
The pace of Russia's advance in other areas of Ukraine remains glacial. Its forces have been pushed back from positions around the capital, Kyiv, and are said to have started digging defensive positions to avoid losing more or prepare for some kind of pause.
It's probably way too early to conclude that Russia has given up on capturing Kyiv, but Western officials say that Russia continues to experience setback after setback.
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"Russia is recognising that it can't pursue its operations on multiple axes simultaneously," one official said.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60882156
= new reply since forum marked as read
And of course sanctions are the least we should be doing.
The morale of Ukrainian forces is high but they are fast running out of weapons and new equipment promised by the US and others needs to be delivered immediately to hold their positions let alone push the Russians into any major retreat.
The prospect of a long, drawn-out conflict — possibly akin to the Donbas war after 2014 but on a larger scale — has forced western leaders this week to reassess how they prop up Ukraine over the longer term and how they might respond if Moscow tries to regain the initiative by using weapons of mass destruction.
“There is a need to keep this sustainable. Nobody knows how long this will go on for. [Nato leaders] considered the possibility that Putin [will] just grind on, get stuck, bogged down into a war of attrition, and how we can sustain our support for Ukraine in those circumstances,” says a senior western official present at the meeting.
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It is unclear whether Russia will actually pull back forces from the rest of the country to concentrate on the east or whether Friday’s statement was intended to explain Russia’s failure to make advances in recent days.
Western officials and analysts warned earlier this week that the Kremlin might refocus its offensive on the Donbas. About a quarter of Ukraine’s land forces, including some of its best trained units, are fighting there and defeat would deliver a blow to President Volodymyr Zelensky. It would also secure a land corridor between Russia and Crimea, and possibly allow Putin to declare “victory” back home.
https://www.ft.com/content/9e3711d5-c809-4164-8daf-616fc818196b
Personally, I fear this war going on for years.
In a war of attrition, experts say that population disparity ultimately becomes a major issue, and Russia has 100 million more people than Ukraine.
This is why I feel the current and even planned level of support will most likely prove inadequate and that large portions of Ukraine will be reduced to rubble in a war zone.
So that's what getting your ass kicked means.
And where, oh where is that sea of Russian armor and clouds of sophisticated Russian aircraft I kept hearing about during the run up thru a couple weeks into the invasion? You know...the ones that were simply going to overwhelm those poor, ill equipped Ukrainians.....who've been fighting the Russians in eastern Ukraine since Obama was President. Seems a lot of them are scrap at this point. Oops. Seems Ukraine was ready for what seems in hindsight inevitable. And possibly more if Ukraine get worn down in a protracted years long war.
