Ukraine ready to discuss adopting neutral status in Russia peace deal - Zelenskiy
Source: Reuters
LVIV, Ukraine (Reuters) -Ukraine is prepared to discuss adopting a neutral status as part of a peace deal with Russia but such a pact would have to be guaranteed by third parties and put to a referendum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in remarks aired on Sunday.
...
Security guarantees and neutrality, non-nuclear status of our state. We are ready to go for it. This is the most important point, Zelenskiy said.
Zelenskiy said Ukraine refused to discuss certain other Russian demands, such as the demilitarisation of the country.
Speaking more than a month after Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, Zelenskiy said no peace deal would be possible without a ceasefire and troop withdrawals.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-zelenskiy-russia/ukraine-ready-to-discuss-adopting-neutral-status-in-russia-peace-deal-zelenskiy-idUSKCN2LO0GK
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)I.e., "neutral", although looking to join the EU at some point.
Kashkakat v.2.0
(1,752 posts)HUAJIAO
(2,385 posts)and demilitarization, although he said that was off the table.
Lovie777
(12,262 posts)Zelenskky needs a much better binding contract with penalties against Russia if they break it like what is happening now
blue-wave
(4,353 posts)Yeah, just what Ukraine needs. More "promises" from Russia that they will leave Ukraine in peace.
Ukraine had this promise from Russia in the Budapest Agreement, when Ukraine gave up it's nuclear weapons. Guess what? Russia has since invaded and slaughtered thousands of Ukrainians not once, but twice since then.
Russia and Pooty have no honor. They have PROVEN that they cannot be trusted. If Ukraine accepts more promises, they are leaving the future open to more Russian aggression.
The Budapest Agreement: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances
And a Brookings article from 2014 (just after the first Russian invasion) on the subject: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/12/04/the-budapest-memorandum-and-u-s-obligations/
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)is that Russia is less than a week from defaulting. Putin destroyed their entire economy that was 30 years in the making, in less than a month.
blue-wave
(4,353 posts)magically change the Russian mindset and their dreams of empire? I think not. Too many people do not understand the Russian mindset because we have never lived in the brutal, as President Biden remarked yesterday "might makes right" Russian society. With many, if not most Russians, violence is a tool to achieve a desired end.
If some sort of "promise" agreement is concluded, the Russians will be back after they have licked their wounds and healed from the present fiasco.
Supply the Ukrainians with what is needed to push the Russians back over the border. Negotiate a peace deal from a position of strength and let the Ukrainians build a stronger military that will deter Russian aggression into the long term future.
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)They can "dream" but multi-million dollar each planes and couple million dollar each T-90s (since their latest tanks have supposedly NOT been spotted on the battlefield and the production schedule had been delayed as it is) cost ₽₽₽₽.
So does ammunition, food and other supplies, and more importantly, pay for the soldiers.
I suppose they can "dream up" one of these to pay for all of their "dreams" -
PortTack
(32,767 posts)Having said that, I would not put it past them to strike again several years down the road.
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)That's assuming all those who are currently sanctioning the country, even lift some fraction of that and Russia actually will have any money to "strike again" anywhere. As it is, in their zeal to capture Mariupol, they bombed it into oblivion so how is it going to be reconstructed and who is paying for it? Those trying to take over an area will at least leave some infrastructure intact as "booty". But when one just dives in with no feasible plan, then one is left with the messed-up bed they made and will have to lay in it.
I remember the last go-around in 1998 when the IMF (with the encouragement of the U.S.) essentially helped to bail Russia out -
By Michael R. Gordon and David E. Sanger
July 17, 1998
Seven weeks ago the chief of the International Monetary Fund, Michel Camdessus, assured the world's financial markets that there was no reason to panic about Russia. ''Contrary to what markets and commentators are imagining,'' Mr. Camdessus insisted as investors were fleeing the Russian markets, ''this is not a crisis. This is not a major development.'' This week, in a complete reversal, the I.M.F. and the Russian Government announced a bailout package that will inject $17.1 billion in new loans to the beleaguered nation over the next 18 months. The Clinton Administration was the driving force behind the reversal, impelled by the specter of Russia's financial collapse.
United States Treasury officials were worried that while negotiations with the Russians dragged on over forcing real economic change, the political peril to the Government of President Boris N. Yeltsin was growing. They pressed the fund to double the amount of money it was willing to lend to Russia, even though it depleted the I.M.F.'s own resources for fighting the economic contagion that is spreading beyond Asia. The Russian predicament once again casts a spotlight on the critical decisions made by the I.M.F. at a moment when the Asian financial crisis has made the institution more powerful than at any time in its 52-year history.
Critics of the I.M.F. charge that in this case, fund officials underestimated the gravity of the crisis and dragged out the negotiations while the markets turned against Russia and the eventual cost of the bailout rose. I.M.F. officials counter that it would have been a waste of money to offer yet another bailout to Russia without extracting a commitment to fundamental economic changes that are painful and politically unpopular. By last week, the negotiations turned into a race to rescue the Russian economy before the Government's financial reserves were exhausted. Without new funds, Russian officials feared they would run out of money to prevent a default on Russia's debt and prop up its currency by the end of the month.
''Last week was the most dangerous period,'' Yegor T. Gaidar, the former Prime Minister who is now an economic adviser to Mr. Yeltsin, said in an interview. ''If we followed all the standard procedures, the money would have arrived too late. I think the position of the leading industrial nations was very constructive and the U.S. Treasury helped a lot.'' The final package is not a permanent solution; it buys time for what American officials believe is the most reform-minded government in Russia in years. In Washington, however, there is palpable nervousness about the deal that was struck. It is unclear whether Mr. Yeltsin and his new Prime Minister will be able to fulfill their commitments to remake their economy.
https://www.nytimes.com/1998/07/17/world/rescuing-russia-special-report-bailout-kremlin-us-pressed-imf.html
Anyone think the IMF or the U.S. is going to bail Russia out this time?
(maybe China but certainly not anyone else that has an economy large enough to even try)
PortTack
(32,767 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)because that is when the shit can hit the fan with respect to interest payments being due -
Last Updated: March 26, 2022 at 2:19 p.m. ET
First Published: March 26, 2022 at 1:51 p.m. ET
By Lydia Moynihan
Investors breathed a sigh of relief last week after the Russian government made a $117 million interest payment on its foreign debt. But a much bigger payment comes due April 4 to the tune of $2.2 billion and creditors are far less optimistic Russia will pony up this time. The last payment was a small investment in credibility, but when Russia has to start writing billion dollar checks its a different calculation, Jay Newman, former Elliott Management portfolio manager and author of Undermoney, told The Post. I dont think its realistic that Russia comes up with the $2.2 billion.
The bond payment last week panicked investors because it was unclear whether Russias central bank would be able to able to use its frozen reserve of US dollars to make the payment and whether US banks would work with the country to transfer the money. There was also a dispute about whether Russia could pay the debt in its own currency. The Russian Finance Ministry insisted the country could pay in rubles RUBUSD, +3.10% but people with knowledge of the contract say its required to be paid in dollars.
For some smaller installment payments Russia is allowed to pay in rubles. But for the previous payments of $117 million and the upcoming payment of $2.2 billion, the terms mandate Russia must pay in US dollars. Russia came through last time. But debt experts take a grim view of what comes next. These people tell The Post they dont think Russias ability and willingness to service its previous debt obligation means anything when it comes to the future especially because Russia faces nearly $4.8 billion in debt payments this year.
And April 4 will be the first big test: Two billion is real money, Newman warns. The U.S. Treasury Department clarified Russia can use frozen funds to make debt payments until May 25. After that, the country likely needs to scrape up the money from other sources borrowing cash or selling oil to countries like China or India.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/russia-will-likely-default-with-april-4-payment-due-of-2-2-billion-experts-say-01648317115
PortTack
(32,767 posts)oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)They apparently squeaked through a smaller $117 million payment a couple weeks ago. But they are rapidly running out of other options (and the payments that are due must be in dollars).
I post this often but it give you a perspective on the GDP of the countries around the world and since this pie chart was created, Russia would have now shrunk to a dot (Russia's GDP carve-out is sitting on the edge of the circle on the right next to the word "Europe" ) -
oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)They are now but a mere dot. The ruble is less than 1 cent in dollars, going from ~30 per dollar in the early 2000s to averaging somewhere around 100 per dollar now, give or take.
https://liveexchanges.com/convert-USD-RUB.html
former9thward
(32,006 posts)These economic predictions don't seem to be working out. We were told they were going to default two weeks ago. They didn't. We were told the stock exchange would not reopen. It reopened last week and went up. We were told the ruble would be worthless. It has stabilized and gone up.
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)And if you think the ruble has much "value" being more or less 1/100th of a dollar, then there is no helping you to understand - https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2894920
former9thward
(32,006 posts)That is a circular argument which proves nothing. The predictions of imminent doom have not happened.
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)but is to a post in this same thread that includes an excerpt (and link to) and newer article from Marketwatch. But not choosing to read more, is not surprising.
yaesu
(8,020 posts)pay extorsion in order to save thousands of lives. If the west wasn't so afraid of what pootie might do things would be different but it is what it is.
PortTack
(32,767 posts)onetexan
(13,041 posts)blue-wave
(4,353 posts)weapons sent and billions more in sanctions as well as refugee aid and foreign legion troops fighting for Ukraine and the west is "impotent???'
Add to this cannibalized Russian equipment with only a 10% ready rate, meals ready to eat outdated by years and medical bandage packs dating to the late '70's (Um, that's when disco music was big) and it appears to me it's the Russians who are impotent.
yaesu
(8,020 posts)the bottom line is how long can Ukraine hold out, that is completely up to them, no one else is in this fight, they are alone. There is no Iron Man or Rambo that will save the day.
blue-wave
(4,353 posts)You don't need one. The Russian military is a mess.
oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)By multiple nations.
Yes, more can and should be done. And I believe more WILL be done. But short of NATO troops joining the war thats about it. And Russia's military has been revealed as the paper tiger that many suspected long ago. Which is a HUGE loss for Putin.
yaesu
(8,020 posts)are broke & mired in corruption but are still very dangerous as they have the nuke tRump card. Iis a shame that its 2022 & there is still no process in place to stop out of control nuclear powers. The more we need to do & do right now is sanction countries that refuse to sanction russia like China, India & Turkey.
oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)Look at Putin
Yes, we've long known the faults of Russias military but we'd never come out and SAY it because they'd want to prove otherwise sooner than now
BumRushDaShow
(128,979 posts)assembled nearly 1 million troops, including almost 700,000 U.S. troops alone to remove Iraq from Kuwait, Kuwait being a country that is around 2/3rds the size of Crimea (not ALL of Ukraine but just the Crimea peninsula portion). Most were stationed in or near Saudi Arabia and in the Persian Gulf on ships.
Here is a map for comparison -
The small blue circle is around Kuwait. The red oval is around the bottom 2/3rds of Ukraine.
Putin has been attempting to take the entirety of Ukraine with perhaps somewhere south of 200,000 troops.
Im not convinced the arms shipments really are all good. I think a strong argument could be made that what its done is drag the invasion out and is turning Ukraine into a wasteland.
If NATOs goal was to weaken Russia without losing a single member soldier - great. If it was to save Ukraine from destruction, Im not sure its working.
GP6971
(31,158 posts)A neutral, sovereign nation? You're joking...right?
oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)No, there is no "strong argument" for NOT helping UKR defend itself. Unless Vladimir Putin is making the argument.
James48
(4,436 posts)Never negotiate with yourself.
Mr. Putin needs to come to a negotiating table and talk. It is time.
Mike Nelson
(9,955 posts)... countries can decide to be neutral, and decide not to be neutral, too. I wouldn't give up the military, however; that's just Putin planning the next invasion.
oldsoftie
(12,536 posts)And they know they're more competent than the "2nd best military in Ukraine"
Strelnikov_
(7,772 posts)And calms the Russian paranoia (and understandably so) of being invaded that Putin is able to feed on.
The west helps rebuild Ukraine, and flood it with defensive weaponry.
Most importantly, though, the west needs to win the peace once Putin's regime falls. NATO membership for Ukraine and a truly democratic Russia?
Also, I think the days of one country invading another, when both countries have modern man-served weaponry, are over. We are back to August 1914, where the defensive capabilities of the weaponry exceeds offensive capabilities.