Moderate Dem Congressman Loses to Progressive Challenger in Oregon

[BumRushDaShow]

Source: Daily Beast

Progressive challenger Jamie McLeod-Skinner has defeated incumbent Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) in Oregon’s fifth congressional district, according to the Associated Press, kicking one of Congress’ most moderate Democrats to the curb. The two candidates were forced to wait more than a week for the results of the May 17 primary, in part caused by ballot-counting delays in Clackamas County, one of the state’s most populous.

The state is also navigating a new vote-by-mail provision that allows returned ballots to be postmarked as late as Election Day, meaning ballots could continue to arrive and shift the totals over the next few days. Schrader and McLeod-Skinner’s matchup followed a year of tribulation between moderates and progressives in Congress during talks on passing the party’s signature social spending bill, the Build Back Better Act.

Schrader was a member of the so-called “unbreakable nine” group of House members that said they would refuse to vote in favor of the Build Back Better package - filled with progressive priorities - unless the bipartisan infrastructure bill was passed first. Months later, the infrastructure bill became law, while the social spending package was essentially spiked. Schrader’s role in that legislative maneuver, in addition to his positions on pharmaceutical pricing and other Democratic priorities, were points of contention in the race.

His decision to hold the social spending bill hostage drove a number of local officials, including four county Democratic parties, to endorse McLeod-Skinner over Schrader. Some national figures also came to her backing, including the Working Families Party and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA).

Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/incumbent-democrat-rep-kurt-schrader-falls-to-progressive-challenger-jamie-mcleod-skinner-in-oregon

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I've been saying this for awhile now (since last year) but there is something "bubbling up" under the surface. I suppose it's what a tsunami does when it is deep out in the open ocean where at the surface, you don't see much, and it only gains strength as it gets closer to shore and the water is shallower, after which the huge wave crests.

[mountain grammy]

1. Hopeful sign..

[Peregrine Took]

40. +1,000 nt

[vlyons]

2. People are f-ing tired of the stagnation and the hemming and hawing

I know I sure am tired of it.

[Me.]

3. Here's The Problem

538 gives him 1/100 chance of winning against the con. We cannot afford to lose any seats.

[quakerboy]

4. Gives who a 1/100 chance?

Because the apparent winner is Her, not him.


Also.. The apparent chances for the incumbent were not significantly different. Lets see what things look like when the GE contest actually gets going.

[Me.]

8. 538

and while it may not be a huge advantage an incumbent usually has an edge

[quakerboy]

42. You misread (and possibly mistyped?)

You said 538 gave "Him" a 1/100 chance.

But the apparent winner is a "Her".


Im also curious if you have a link to this, because multiple search queries into google and at fivethirtyeight are not getting me any results that remotely resemble what you are saying.

Edited to add... I responded, then read the rest of the thread below. My points have been more than adequately presented by others there, no need to respond to the same thing again

[JudyM]

5. Her.

[llashram]

6. 538

is wrong a lot these days. To hell with 538...and it's her, not him

[Me.]

7. Let's Hope They Are Wrong

and what was I thinking with the her/him...

[Ace Rothstein]

9. That appears to be from 2018 in what I'm assuming was a different district.

[leftieNanner]

10. In 2018 she ran in District 2, which is bright RED

She ran against Greg Walden (who has since retired - replaced by the odious Cliff Bentz) and I worked on her campaign. She lost, but she did turn Walden's home county blue!

I think she can win this one.

[muriel_volestrangler]

11. Really? Cook Political Report says the 5th is a toss-up, but on the Democratic side

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

1/100 sounds like BS from 538, to me.

[Me.]

13. Has The Race For The Cons Been Called Yet?

It's not going to be easy whoever is the con candidate is

"“The redrawn 5th District leans Democratic, according to the Cook Political report. However, it’s less securely blue than it was before redistricting, and national Republican groups are expected to target the district’s voters in their effort to win a majority in the U.S. House.”

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/05/25/kurt-schrader-close-to-losing-seat-oregon-5th-district/

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. Yes - from your link:

Democratic party voters in the state’s 5th Congressional District appear to have rejected the seven-term incumbent, and chosen Terrebonne attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner to run against Republican candidate Lori Chavez-DeRemer in the November general election.

"Not easy" is a world away from "1 in 100 chance".

[Me.]

18. You Are Quite Right

her hope is better but still...

“Cook Political Report, a noted national elections ratings agency that forecasts the likelihood of how congressional races will pan out, has moved the Oregon 5th from a “Lean Democrat” to a “toss-up” with McLeod-Skinner’s nomination.”

https://centraloregondaily.com/jamie-mcleod-skinner-liza-chavez-deremer-5th-district/

[KPN]

23. You are right about that. In fact, 538 gives Oregon's current 5th District a 3 point edge

for Democrats in 2022. election.

[link:https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon%27s_5th_Congressional_District_election,_2022_(May_17_Democratic_primary)|

[scipan]

16. That doesn't sound right.

538 has the district at D+3. A 1/100 chance for her to win is just not plausible.

I'd like to see your source for that. I won't hold my breath.

[Me.]

19. Never Wise To Hold Your Breath

sadly that 1/100 was as the poster above noted was from 2018.

[Demsrule86]

37. you are kidding! I hope that is not true. Why would anyone vote for someone who can't win a

General.

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. Great news - hopefully 2022 will see the dismantling of the Sabotage Squad. Nt

[Me.]

14. Not So Fast

Things are still at the anything can happen stage...

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. If anything can happen, then...

Dismantling the Sabotage Squad is one of those possible “anything’s”.

[Me.]

30. According To Univeral Rules, The Anything Can Happen Possibility

is even Stevens

[KPN]

17. As an Oregonian the past 35 years, let me just say AWESOME.

[Tree Lady]

21. Me to fellow Oregonian here

I voted for her twice before and glad she won this time. I went in person to see her speak years ago and really liked what she had to say. She worked hard and went to every county no matter right or left.

[Demsrule86]

38. Not if we lose the seat. It we lose the house, it will be a disaster.

[quakerboy]

43. If we lose the seat we were going to lose the seat anyway.

Kurt was no more likely to win the post redistricting area than Jamie.

[KPN]

44. Well, the fact that the 4 County Democratic Party

Organizations supported her over Schaefer is important and a good sign. I don’t think the County party orgs that comprise the district would have made the decision to support her if they thought she would lose. Now voters, without support of the county orgs, is perhaps a different story.

[KPN]

45. Well, the fact that the 4 County Democratic Party

Organizations supported her over Schaefer is important and a good sign. I don’t think the County party orgs that comprise the district would have made the decision to support her if they thought she would lose. Now voters, without support of the county orgs, is perhaps a different story.

[DownriverDem]

20. Good, but

they are both Dems to me. I don't identify with the progressive label.

[KPN]

22. Well, apparently, Oregonians do. Including local Democratic Party leaders. Isn't that enough?

[DownriverDem]

24. No

I'm a proud member of the Democratic Party. It's who we are. I don't think we should waste time with labels that aren't official. Watching the MAGA repubs shows what division does. Isn't that enough?

[KPN]

25. Ah, sorry, I misunderstood you to say you are not a Progressive as opposed to

you identify with the label Democrat as opposed to a specific subset of Democrats. My mistake. That is good enough.

[Fiendish Thingy]

28. Shouldn't replacing Democrats who obstruct Biden's agenda and block legislation be a priority?

[Demsrule86]

39. Not unless they can win the General...and as far as I can see those who have voted against Biden

in the house did call themselves progressive? What am I missing?

[former9thward]

46. President Biden didn't think so.

He traveled to Oregon and endorsed Schrader. It was his first endorsement of the 2022 primaries.

“We don’t always agree, but when it has mattered most, Kurt has been there for me,” Biden wrote in his announcement. “And in doing so, he has helped to pass much of my agenda into law — making a huge difference in the lives of the Oregonians he represents and all of America.”

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/04/23/president-joe-biden-endorses-incumbent-kurt-schrader-for-5th-congressional-district/

[Fiendish Thingy]

47. Wasn't Schrader one of the "Problem Solvers" who pushed to de-link the BIF & BBB?

Thereby sabotaging the centrepiece of Biden’s legislative agenda?

[former9thward]

48. I didn't make the endorsement.

President Biden did. And I suspect he knew Schrader's views.

[Hortensis]

26. Great! McCloud-Skinner's a good sensible liberal Democrat, not a faux prog.

Like many of us, left of Biden but same ideology and goals.

All liberal Democrats are progressive. But not everyone who identifies as "Progressive" is a Democrat, or liberal, or even progressive. In any case, she's one of us, not those who want to dismantle the Democratic Party and sabotage our progressive legislation to undermine support for us.

[Me.]

29. What A Great Distinction & One More People Should Be Aware Of

"But not everyone who identifies as "Progressive" is a Democrat, or liberal, or even progressive"

[ananda]

35. I want more like that... liberal and sensible.

Thanks

[mountain grammy]

41. In any case, she's one of us..

good enough for me.. in fact, I would say even better!

[Voltaire2]

31. 'Most moderate' is bullshit framing.

These are right wing Democrats. There are no ‘moderates’ in a polarized political system.

[McKim]

32. She will be great!

She will be great! She has campaigned all over and won with new fresh ideas. Rep. Schrader voted agains Biden's agenda. He is a DINO. This is a liberal state.

[Lunabell]

33. The writing is on the wall!

We're mad as hell and we ain't gonna take it any more! It may take longer than I have left on this earth, but change is a comin'!!

[jalan48]

34. Big Pharma Kurt. Glad to see his sorry ass going out the door.

[neverforget]

36. As a resident of this district, good riddance to Kurt. He can take his pharma

dollars and enjoy retirement but he'll probably be a pharma lobbyist.

[Hortensis]

50. Another of the "Unbreakable Nine" who opposed the Biden progressive

infrastructure spending goes down or is already gone. They may end up only three or four before long.

"Unbreakable's" Carolyn Bourdeaux is voted out here in GA, lost in a redistricting race to Lucy McBath. Though fiscally more moderate than average, she's a solid liberal progressive who helped create and pass the Biden agenda and is well regarded by the couple hundred fellow house Democrats who also did.

The voters speak.

[neverforget]

51. Voters have the power!

[Joinfortmill]

49. Yup.

[brooklynite]

52. OR-05 is a D+1 district

Cook Political has it as a TOSSUP. Sabato has it as LEAN D.

This could be a challenge to win without an incumbent.

[Tarc]

53. Good.