More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems

[pstokely]

Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats’ support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party’s inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm-elections-biden-covid-health-presidential-e50db07385831e67f866ec45402be8b9

---

this from AP, not Faux?

[Casady1]

1. It is really 300,000

It is a misleading headline.

[pstokely]

5. I didn't write it

and that was before last Friday I assume

[obamanut2012]

7. Yup, I have done it here in FL

[freedomrock1970]

25. I do the same here in TN

If there is Dem on the ticket, there is only one, so they win their Primary anyway.

It give me two chances to not vote for the local GQP.

[obamanut2012]

26. Exactly

[mentalsolstice]

56. A lot of my friends here in the panhandle do it.

Unfortunately declaring Independent precludes one from voting in any primary. I’m registered democratic. Because of our sunshine laws we can see how anyone is registered in this state. And yeah when I meet a new, potential friend, I will look it up. However, like you I know it’s not a litmus test.

[Eliot Rosewater]

10. IC

[riversedge]

14. Lets hope you are 100% correct. I saw this headline earlier and it almost made me sick.

[elleng]

19. Yes, this is recent; the OP is about' over the last year.'

'A 10-point swing to the Democrats post-Dobbs.'

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216854726

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

23. For some yes

But for all, no. Not all states have closed primaries. Actually, I believe the the number of states with closed primarys are only 14 or 15. So the location of these switches are important.

[AnrothElf]

28. Yup. Moved to Wyoming recently...

Will vote (ugh) for Cheney in the primary and then vote against her in the general

[Fullduplexxx]

33. There's also massive fraud in florida tricking people into

Switching

[sdfernando]

37. Yeah..this was my thought as well

How many of those "switches" were unbeknownst to the voter?

[SergeStorms]

42. Even if it was 1,000,000 voters....

that's 23, 255 per state. what percentage of those are from states that already solid red?

I'm not going to lose any sleep about this, whatever the numbers. Come November, we're going to kick their stinking asses.

[Rebl2]

39. Yep

I have done the same in the past.

[oldsoftie]

40. How do they not see this? I did it. I told EVERYONE to do it.

Trumpism needed to be defeated at the state level.

[onetexan]

54. Thank you for reminding us of this!!

[jaysunb]

3. Bullshit ! Nt

[liberalla]

4. Let's see how many switch and embrace Dems after the anti-choice SC decision...

** plus we know dems have switched to vote in the R primaries **

[liberalla]

15. A 10 point swing to the Democrats post Dobbs

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100216854726

[obamanut2012]

6. As I keep stating, I am one of them

I changed from D to R to vote in the FL GOP Primary. We have closed primaries here.

[obamanut2012]

29. hahaha

[lefthandedskyhook]

8. Warning?

C'mon AP!

[YoshidaYui]

9. What the flying...

fuck, thinking fascism is better then democracy? Did they think the insurrection was legitimized? Who the fuck are these people who still think Donald Trump should not be President, But Emperor King?

[lefthandedskyhook]

11. look under the lining

[YoshidaYui]

16. more like in their depends...

[lefthandedskyhook]

21. LOL

.

[PatSeg]

12. I really have my doubts about that

[elleng]

17. 'over the last year,' may be significant;

need more recent voter decisions.

[pnwmom]

18. Then suburban women will be switching back, after the demise of Roe V Wade.

We need to make this a one issue election, the demise of Roe v. Wade and THE RIGHT TO PRIVACY, upon which depend Women's right to make medical decisions about their own bodies, and LGBT rights.

[SouthBayDem]

57. When was the last "one issue" election, 1974?

Just one year after Roe and three months after Nixon resigned, Nixon's party took major losses in the midterms. The Democrats gained a veto proof Senate majority (57 to 61 seats) and flipped 49 House seats. On top of the struggling economy of the time, the disgraceful fall of the party leader tarnished the Republican brand for a few years.

[pnwmom]

20. And, by the same statistical guesswork, about 630,000 switched TO the Democrats.

In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats.

So the Democrats shouldn't be making any hasty decisions about becoming more conservative to appeal to suburban voters.

[lapfog_1]

22. They are looking at their 401k and the purchasing power.

My "retirement" account, made up mostly of unrealized restricted stock units, has dropped by 50% in the last 7 months. There is absolutely nothing I can do about that.

I got a 3% raise... which will do very little to offset the increase in rent (8%) or food (10%) which are my main expenditures.

I know Biden and Democrats did not create this.. the market was overheated, the Fed had to clamp down and raise rates... but, of course, the Fed is looking more at lagging indicators and probably course corrected too much and too late. Plus, China is deliberately trying to screw the USA by continuing with a Covid lockdown response when it is very clear that the virus is now post pandemic... it is endemic. Plus the China vaccine is for shit, apparently. Anyway, supply chain is fucked and will continue to be fucked. The invasion of Ukraine and resulting oil supply crunch (already bad by everyone in Europe and the US returning to travel like it's 2018) have added to the inflation spike.

I hope the educated suburban women vote for Democrats this fall... even if they are now registered as Repukes.

The men won't give a shit... sadly.

[LeftInTX]

30. Exactly

[Xoan]

24. AP is playing games.

Ignore them.

[SergeStorms]

43. This.

[brooklynite]

65. Absent evidence, ignoring data you don't like is a bad idea.

[Stuart G]

27. Come November we will all see who is correct.Will the Democrats gain a huge majority in both houses?

Or, will it be the opposite.

If angry women do vote against this decision, then they will vote for Dems. ...Question...

.....HOW MANY WOMEN IN THE U.S. ARE ANGRY THAT ONE RIGHT THAT THEY HAD FOR MANY YEARS, IS GONE?

(even those who would never use that right, are they angry about losing it?)...

For example..I almost never buy booze, but I want to have that right cause someday I might buy some.
Get the Point?

[Baitball Blogger]

31. Wasn't it reported recently that Democrats intentionally switched to Republicans

in order to vote against Trump candidates in their primaries?

And seriously, 1 mil over 43 States? That's a problem?

[Lovie777]

32. I read something like this at least 6 months ago . . .

Gosh right on time when crazy republicans decisions are starting to backfire. So far as to crimes, ugh, Democrats want realistic gun control.

[moose65]

34. Ugh

Notice how the article interviewed two people who switched from Dem to Rep, but didn't talk to anyone who went the other way?

Also, this is not just based on actual numbers - they also used statistical analysis to "estimate" the number who switched.

So, it's a million who became Republicans vs. 630,000 who became Democrats. They also don't mention that many states don't do registration by party affiliation, and they also don't mention that there are lots of unaffiliated voters out there. In NC, the number of unaffiliated voters is now more that the number in each major party.

I don't understand party switchers, really. Are people really stupid enough to believe that Biden, one of the most normal politicians out there, is a socialist? Geez.

[erronis]

35. I got a jury alert: This post may interfere with moderation. WTF? This post may be off, but

it doesn't interfere with moderation. Whoever alerted should be noted.

[Beastly Boy]

36. Lousy reporting and lousy journalism from AP. No surprise.

From the article: "In all, more than 1 million people became Republicans compared to about 630,000 who became Democrats."

There are so many holes in this sentence alone, it discredits the entire article:

- Despite the headline, there is no switching implied in these numbers. The numbers show how many people became Republican in the past year vs how many became Democrats. These may be newly eligible voters, or previously unregistered voters, or independents and non-partisan voters declaring their new affiliation, or, indeed, members of the two major parties switching affiliations, or all of the above. No specific numbers of voters who switched have been identified.

- The click bait header doesn't mention the 630,000 voters who became Democrats, in warning to Republicans or otherwise.

- Nowhere in the article does it mention that the net difference between the newly minted Repubs and Dems amounts to 360,000 people in 43 states. The distribution per state, or its effects on swing states, or the demographic breakdown per state, and thus the likely effects on outcomes in the next election, are all unknown.

In addition:

- The remaining 7 states are mysteriously missing from the data analyzed by AP, and we don't know what these states are.

-The analysis is based on data "over the last year". Was it 2021 or 2022? Or was it a period between June 28 of last year and today? Or a random one-year period? How does this compare to any other comparable time period?

Very sloppy journalism. I am calling bullshit on AP.

[erronis]

41. Ditto. Good analysis of AP's shitty reporting.

[maxrandb]

61. It's not sloppy reporting

It's purposeful reich wing propaganda.

It's designed to push the "Dems in disarray", or "Dems in trouble" meme

[IronLionZion]

38. COVID vaccines, violent crime, focus on racial justice

Plenty of people are enjoying the benefits of injustice and would like to maintain the status quo. Those folks are afraid of CRT, LGBT, and similar stuff in schools.

The recent overturning of Roe would also impact many voters. Some conservatives might get complacent if that was their main issue.

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

44. Holy shit. If I were younger I would pack it all and move to a more progressive country.

[jimlup]

45. Don't ever over-estimate the intelligence

of the electorate. The majority are short sighted and barely see the news in front of their face.

[Dopers_Greed]

46. We're going to get annihilated in November

This is probably the last couple months of democracy, even if in name only.

[onenote]

48. It's 1 million R switchers and 630,000 D switchers

So its a net 370,000 Repub switchers. But that' s not just D to R. It includes Libertarians, Independents, etc. And it doesn't tell you how many of them already were voting for Republicans.

Maybe not the best news, but not worthy of a panic response.

[cstanleytech]

49. 1 million scattered across the country is hardly a tidal wave seeing as there are

millions of other voters.

[pnwmom]

58. Especially when 630K others switched from the R's to being Democrats. n/t

[cstanleytech]

59. What would be concerning is if the ones joining them had a history going back 20 years of

only voting for Democrats.
My bet is though that most if not all of them are ones that actually have a history of mostly voting for Republicans and they are simply making it public now.

[pnwmom]

63. Or they could be good Democrats in solid red districts, who join to vote against

the worst R's, like Lauren Boebert or Marjorie Taylor Greene.

[Joinfortmill]

50. To vote in primaries so Trump nominated candidates don't win?

[keopeli]

51. People don't usually switch parties mid-year because they know they will vote for the Repub in Nov.

It doesn't matter what party you are in. You just vote. The main reason people switch parties is to vote in the primaries.

This article really is stretching to think a surge in party switching is related to how one will vote differently in November than in the past. How many people were registered Dems, but voted for and liked Trump and are only now switching so they can vote in the primaries? Being an election judge and clerk, this is the most likely cause of such an event. These switchers were already voting republican, but never voted in the primary. Their asshole friends are convincing them they need to vote in the primaries, but they can't if they aren't registered properly. So, they switch.

I say this whole article is click-bait.

[BigmanPigman]

53. Dems will pick up millionS from suburban moms over "pro choice".

They should take that survey again in a few weeks.

[imavoter]

55. I just read a different article that Rs are worried after abortion decision.

So which is it?

[dsc]

60. Not that this is the main thing they wrote about

but Raleigh is bigger than both Cleveland and Pittsburgh and has been for quite a while. It is pretty odd to see an implication that Raleigh is a medium sized city and smaller than those cities. Raleigh has just under 500k while Cleveland is under 400k now and Pittsburgh has just under 300k.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

62. Dear easily upset DUer who doesn't understand the concept of news:

Just because you don't like the results of the poll, that doesn't mean the story is a right wing talking point.

mahatmakanejeeves

[FreepFryer]

64. It also doesn't mean it isn't. Beau of the Fifth Column had an excellent piece on this "story."

[RandiFan1290]

66. An analysis claiming one million voters switched to the GOP last year was fatally flawed

https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/an-analysis-claiming-one-million

Aww, Bless your heart

On Monday, the Associated Press reported that “More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data… A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.”

The bombshell story was shared far and wide by election analysts, political reporters, and even some politicians. Texas Governor Greg Abbott tweeted them matter-of-factly to his followers; Florida Senator Rick Scott said the report was “another sign of the red wave coming this November as Democrats continue to go full force on their radical agenda.”

There’s just one huge problem: the reported shift is not actually real.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

67. Thanks for providing that. It's a newsworthy rebuttal.

I hope that G. Elliott Morris called the AP and offered to be interviewed, so that they could carry his analysis of the data.

Any subsequent AP story about it would be worthy of appearing on DU.

If somebody alerted on the DU story linking to it and I were on the jury, I would vote to keep the story in place.

Recently a few DUers have taken it upon themselves to suppress news they don't like. That bothers me. I vote against their attempts at suppressing the news, every last time.

I don't care what the story says, but I do care that some DUers think it's their job to suppress it.

That's my point.

Thanks for writing.