June jobs report: Payrolls rise by 372,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%
Source: Yahoo! Finance
The U.S. labor market remained strong in June, even as the Federal Reserve tightened monetary conditions and some companies warned of layoffs. The Labor Department released its latest monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:
Non-farm payrolls: +372,000 vs. +268,000 expected Unemployment rate: 3.6% vs. 3.6% expected Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: +0.3% vs. +0.3% expected Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: +5.1% vs. +5.0% expected
In the previous jobs report, U.S. payrolls rose by 390,000 in May, while the unemployment rate held at a steady 3.6%. Prior to June and May's releases, the U.S. economy had added at least 400,000 jobs each month over the last year, bringing employment within 1% of pre-pandemic levels. Although employment growth is showing signs of abating, monthly figures remain robust on a historical basis -- monthly payroll averaged about 164,000 per month in 2019.
The Labor Department's June report comes as investors worry about rising costs associated with inflation and higher interest rates, raising the specter of a potential recession hitting the labor market.
Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/june-jobs-report-july-8-2022-211628954.html
TGIF to all and stand by for DU's resident economy watchers to provide the data and deep dives.
WaPo (live update) -
By Abha Bhattarai8:31 a.m.
Job growth remained strong even as it continued to slow in June, with U.S. employers adding 372,000 new positions, according to a new Labor Department report released this morning. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6 percent.
“The labor market is still running hot even though the temperature has come down by a few degrees,” said Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor. “We did see recession concerns pick up significantly in June, but labor demand seems to be holding up.”
The latest figures underscore the strength of a labor market that has rapidly rebounded after more than 20 million people lost their jobs in the first months of the pandemic. But after months of unprecedented growth and decades-high inflation, the focus has shifted to cooling the economy enough to a more even-keeled pace.
“What we see in the last few months of data are a strong labor market and also one that’s beginning to make the transition from historic economic recovery to steady, stable growth,” a senior White House official said in a Thursday media briefing ahead of the unemployment report.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/07/08/jobs-report-june-2022/#link-DUCGSIDJZBB6VLUVS5Z73Z6WPE
= new reply since forum marked as read
and the prognosticators are honing in on being able to get closer to actuals... well... except for being off by 100,000! 
I did just find the revisions for previous months, which seemed to be somewhat small for last month -
to +368,000, and the change for May was revised down by 6,000, from +390,000 to +384,000. With
these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 74,000 lower than previously reported.
(Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from businesses and government agencies
since the last published estimates and from the recalculation of seasonal factors.)
where you have a similar situation of interpreting "models" (that are based on statistics), need I say more about how that often goes? 
In the case of weather, they will look at the model output and then will go back historically to try to find analog years where conditions were similar and then try to come up with some forecasts, and sometimes that helps a bit (but not always).
So in this case with economic conditions, I'm not sure if there is an analog to what we are going through.
Some 20 years ago, there were dire predictions of baby boomers suddenly leaving the marketplace about 10 years ago as the oldest turned 65 but that didn't happen. The pandemic certainly became a trigger for that type of forecast exodus but then it seems many are deciding to creep back into the marketplace - on their own terms.
We have inflated prices and very low unemployment and as the President noted at his E.O. signing today - we have now "recovered all of the pre-pandemic jobs that were lost (in terms of numbers - not necessarily types), and then some". That isn't the same as having high unemployment and high inflation, or even high interest rates, where some pundits were trying to insist we were undergoing "stagflation" like was seen in the '70s, to define what was going on now, and that isn't panning out.
There is a concern about all the "liquidity" the Fed pumped into the system but what also happened was that money was sent out to the populace during the pandemic and people actually used it to pay down or pay off their credit cards and in some cases, start saving (and the pundits whined about that because people "weren't buying" ).
But now that people ARE buying again, the complaint is "why are people using their credit cards and not saving!!11!11!!!! 
So they really don't know what is going to happen and what they always say in forecasting weather - "the trend is your friend" (but you have to pick the correct features to look at).
and most importantly, beating any Slobfather era number.
https://www.google.com/search?q=biden%3A+%22recovered+all+of+the+pre-pandemic+jobs+that+were+lost+and+then+some%22&sxsrf=ALiCzsYa1ECFAQLRJa54PiEuL_O7GTYYyw%3A1657364429147&source=hp&ei=zV_JYonRBO2kptQPjcak-As&iflsig=AJiK0e8AAAAAYslt3R79Rcgh3KPF2er1Gfr9JjWkiYzt&ved=0ahUKEwjJ67vQ0-v4AhVtkokEHQ0jCb8Q4dUDCAk&uact=5&oq=biden%3A+%22recovered+all+of+the+pre-pandemic+jobs+that+were+lost+and+then+some%22&gs_lcp=Cgdnd3Mtd2l6EANQAFgAYPgXaABwAHgAgAGAAYgBgAGSAQMwLjGYAQCgAQKgAQE&sclient=gws-wiz
Private Sector Jobs, IN THOUSANDS
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0500000001
YEAR January February March Yada *IN THOUSANDS*
2019 127581 127595 127787 128037 128117 128246 128364 128482 128589 128657 128875 129058
2020 129344 129625 128181 108609 111734 116244 117537 118750 119709 120508 120914 120806
2021 121229 121922 122572 122784 123165 123673 124311 124808 125217 125911 126538 127099
2022 127591 128295 128680 129048 129384(P) 129765(P)
(P)=Preliminary
Clearly beating the Slobfather high of February 2020 of 129,625,000
Odd that government jobs are still below SlobFather highs ... you'd have thought that "Biden and the Squad" would have done away with the private sector by now, according to conventional political stereotypes 
==============
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/08/statement-by-president-biden-on-the-june-jobs-report/
In the second quarter of this year, we created more jobs than in any quarter under any of my predecessors in the nearly 40 years before the pandemic. We have more Americans working in the private sector today than any day during Donald Trump’s Presidency – more people than any time in our history.
Some people have commented in the past several months on various threads that Yahoo Finance is a RW source, and people who post from this source are "Yahoos" ha ha ha. Well this story doesn't sound like one designed to make the Biden economy look bad.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-react-to-junes-blowout-report-180922367.html
Jobs data 'make a mockery' of recession fears: Economists react to June's employment report, Alexandra Semenova, Yahoo Finance, 7/8/22
... “The strong 372,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June appears to make a mockery of claims the economy is heading into, let alone already in, a recession. That may be enough to solidify the case for another 75bp rate hike at the Fed’s meeting later this month, although signs that wage growth is cooling and the recent plunge in commodity prices both suggest the inflation outlook could improve more quickly than officials had feared.”
...“Overall, the jobs data support our view that talk of the economy being in recession right now is fanciful,
And on and on similarly with analyst after analyst opinion. But it does end with this:
"In contrast to what some pundits are suggesting, the economy is not currently in recession and we should expect the labor market to expand but at a slower pace as firms still struggle with finding suitable workers. Firms will still likely be increasing wages as they deal with a shortage of qualified workers and elevated quit rates. The high number of people not returning to the work force is one of the nagging problems with the labor market right now. Relative to pre-pandemic levels, the economy has 4.8 million more people out of the labor force. Some likely took early retirements but that does not explain the rest of the story. The labor market will remain tight with low unemployment as roughly 5 million people have not yet rejoined the workforce."
The BLS numbers of Labor Force Level are different. The labor force is 610,000 below its pre-pandemic peak of 164,633,000 in December 2019.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11000000
YEAR January February yada ... *In thousands*
2019 163072 163114 163035 162642 162803 163029 163472 163774 164015 164336 164434 164633
2020 164479 164583 162764 156358 158122 159834 160015 160707 160153 160834 160539 160671
2021 160184 160359 160631 160978 160801 161114 161375 161505 161471 161610 162126 162294
2022 163687 163991 164409 164046 164376 164023
January of every year is "Data affected by changes in population controls."
and it goes back to that quote I posted above from the Philly Fed about "shocks" - there is one "shock" that happened during the early part of the pandemic and that is the supply chain issue. What ended up happening was an extreme backup of cargo ships at ports - notably in California, where pictures were routinely shown of hundreds of ships waiting to dock and tens of thousands of containers waiting to be trucked away.
And the assumption it seems, was that this was still going on and that those same ships were STILL sitting out there 2 years later (above pic was from October 2021), rather than the reality of the result of an E.O. requiring 24/7 operations at the biggest hung-up port in Los Angeles, where stuff DID finally start moving, and went on its way to wholesalers, distributors, and retailers, en masse.
What would be a different "shock" would be actual "NEW" supply source disruptions from China due to their continued on and off COVID lockdown protocols, but the stuff that was shipped before and during the early and mid-parts of the pandemic, had finally reached the warehouses months ago.
And you have this as a result -
By Brendan Case and Allison Nicole Smith
May 28, 2022, 1:00 PM EDT
Big retailers rushed to build up inventories last year amid soaring consumer demand and transportation bottlenecks -- going so far in some cases as to rent their own cargo ships. Now, they’re trying to figure out how to sell all their stuff.
Inventories rose $44.8 billion for companies on S&P consumer indexes with a market value of at least $1 billion that reported earnings over the last two weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up 26% from this time last year. The glut dented profits at some retailers, with Walmart Inc. paying more for storage and Target Corp. and Gap Inc. cutting prices on key goods.
It’s far from clear what comes next. In the past, ballooning retail inventories have signaled economic slowdowns or recessions as shoppers bought less. But consumer spending in April climbed at the quickest pace in three months after adjusting for inflation, the Commerce Department said Friday. As long as Americans keep shopping, well-stocked warehouses could buoy retailers if port congestion worsens this summer.
“The just-in-time mentality is broken now,” said Jen Bartashus, a retail analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. “So you’re seeing retailers carry more inventory than they traditionally carried.” Economists expected money allocated toward services would outpace merchandise as pandemic concerns subsided, but both categories have continued to move upward. Inflation-adjusted spending on services increased 0.5% in April from the prior month while goods rose 1%.
(snip)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-28/walmart-gap-and-others-amass-45-billion-in-extra-stuff-to-sell#xj4y7vzkg
In fact, it seems those ports apparently caught up quite a bit several months ago and are only now seeing an uptick - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2022-06-07/supply-chain-latest-los-angeles-ports-see-container-volumes-rise
And it is now to the point where I heard a business report on the radio last evening that noted the embarrassment of big box retailers like Target, admitting they were sitting on what they called upwards of a "30%" overage of goods, which is going to force them to slash prices in order to "right-size" or "re-balance" their inventories. And THAT was actually a story that came out a month ago that didn't seem to rise above the drumbeat of "inflation inflation recession recession".
Now they are paying for storage.
The latest talking points to uphold "The Narrative®" is this - "Well hiring is going to slow!!!!111!! REALLY!!!!11!!1!!!"
I suppose it will as the economy eventually starts to settle into something of a steady-state after what was a triple-shock (pandemic + recession + war abroad), which are outside of the annual smaller "shocks" that impact commodities, like droughts/heat/floods impacting crops and large livestock, and animal diseases (like bird flu) affecting poultry.
But as I mentioned earlier, there is no good "analog" situation to work off of to help predict the outcomes.
I saw this article defining some of the things that contribute to "inflation" (just did the bullet points from it) -
Kevin L. Matthews II Updated Mar 16, 2022, 3:03 PM
(snip)
Here are the major causes of inflation:
1. Demand-pull inflation
(snip)
2. Cost-push inflation
(snip)
3. Increased money supply
(snip)
4. Devaluation
(snip)
5. Rising wages
(snip)
6. Policies and regulations
(snip)
https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/causes-of-inflation
#1 seems to fluctuate but I think once people got what they needed for essentials, they shifted to looking at discretionary purchases.
#2 seems to be associated with various things like weather conditions and labor shortages in certain industries but then also points to wage increases to adjust for that and a refusal to allow profits to take an initial hit because the business media will excoriate them.
#3 was done to deal with the recession at the beginning of the pandemic and this is where we see the Fed interest rate hikes being used to reign it in
#4 is NOT happening despite #3, to the point where so far, the dollar has been amazingly resilient
#5 wage hikes continue to be multi-decade bullshit argument when the wage growth time and time and time again has been shown to have been stagnant for nearly half a century
#6 are policies where many of those put in place the past year were done to buffer from the shocks
(sorry this is long as I try to sip the coffee - I blame you guys for this!
)