The euro and the dollar are a penny away from parity for the first time in 20 years
Source: CNN Business
New York (CNN Business) For the first time in 20 years, the exchange rate between the euro (EUU) and the US dollar is nearly the same -- the two currencies are less than one cent away from parity. The euro hovered around $1.007 on Monday morning, down nearly 15% since the start of the year. Fears of recession on the continent abound, stoked by high inflation and energy supply uncertainty caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The European Union, which received roughly 40% of its gas through Russian pipelines before the war, is attempting to reduce its dependence on Russian oil and gas. At the same, Russia has throttled back gas supplies to some EU countries and recently cut the flow in the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany by 60%. Now that critical piece of gas import infrastructure in Europe, has been shut down for scheduled maintenance due to last 10 days. German officials fear that it may not be turned on again.
The energy crisis comes alongside an economic slowdown, which has cast doubts over whether the European Central Bank can adequately tighten policy to bring down inflation. The ECB announced that it will hike interest rates this month for the first time since 2011, as the eurozone inflation rate sits at 8.6%. But some say the ECB is far behind the curve, and that a hard landing is all but inevitable. Germany recorded its first trade deficit in goods since 1991 last week as fuel prices and general supply chain chaos significantly increased the price of imports.
"Given the nature of Germany's exports which are commodity-price sensitive, it remains hard to imagine that the trade balance could improve significantly from here in the next few months given the expected slowdown in the Eurozone economy," Saxo Bank foreign exchange strategists wrote in a recent note. series of aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks, including the Fed, coupled with slowing economic growth will keep pressure on the euro while sending investors toward the US dollar as a safe haven, say analysts.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/11/investing/euro-dollar-parity/index.html
Buh buh buh,,,
= new reply since forum marked as read
Just had to cancel my trip to visit family because they tested positive for COVID. 
and COLA estimates for my CSRS annuity!
Author: Adam Hardy
Published: Jul 06, 2022 4 min read
Surging inflation could lead to the biggest boost to monthly Social Security benefits since 1981. The 2023 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, would be 10.8% if inflation continues at its current pace, according to a new prediction from the non-profit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). Each year in October, the Social Security Administration officially announces the following year’s COLA based on inflation trends. Since inflation has been lingering near four-decade highs,
Social Security beneficiaries are expected to get their biggest raise in four decades as well. A 10.8% COLA would be the highest rate in 42 years. The COLA for 2022 is 5.9%, which is also historically high. Currently, the average monthly Social Security benefit is $1,540, according to the latest figures from the Social Security Administration. A 10.8% COLA would increase that benefit to $1,694 — a bump of $154 a month. The CRFB made several predictions based on what inflation could do in the coming months, before the Social Security officially calculates the 2023 COLA.
If inflation were to slow down or completely stop for the remainder of the year, the COLA could be as low as 7.3%. While some economists predict that the inflation rate may dip later this year in response to the Federal Reserve’s aggressive moves to tame it, it is very unlikely that inflation will halt entirely by the end of 2022. Other recent predictions have been slightly more modest than the CRFB’s upper-bound estimate.
For example, an official at the Social Security Administration estimated in June that the 2023 COLA would likely be around 8%. The non-profit Senior Citizens League’s latest COLA estimate is 8.6%. The official COLA is based on inflation data from July, August and September of the previous year. Since no one knows yet what the inflation rates for these three months will be this year, estimates will continue to shift as we get closer to autumn.
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https://money.com/social-security-cola-2023-prediction/
It's "inflation forever!!!1!!!!!!" until "uh oh what if it goes away????!!11!!1!!!".
