New York Manufacturing Plunges by Second-Most in Data to 2001

[mahatmakanejeeves]

Source: Bloomberg

Markets
Economics

New York Manufacturing Plunges by Second-Most in Data to 2001

-- Empire State business activity index dives more than 42 points
-- New orders and shipments gauges underscore weaker demand

By Vince Golle
August 15, 2022, 12:30 PM UTC Updated on August 15, 2022, 1:16 PM UTC

A gauge of New York state manufacturing activity plunged by the second-most in data back to 2001, with sharp declines in orders and shipments that indicate an abrupt downturn in demand.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s August general business conditions index slumped more than 42 points to minus 31.3, with the drop just behind that seen in April 2020, a report showed Monday. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the figure was far weaker than the most downbeat forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-15/new-york-manufacturing-plunges-by-second-most-in-data-to-2001

[Historic NY]

1. I said this before they were cranking out stuff to keep up with demand.

The survey likely shows “that industries extrapolated orders from the Covid period and they ordered too much stuff,” said Thomas Costerg, senior US economist at Pictet Wealth Management. “What we’re seeing and what explains the violence in the downtrend is that it seems that manufacturers are seriously re-examining their orders, and I suspect in many cases simply canceling.”

Months & months of people ordering stuff from home vs going to store, left them struggling to get ahead. Then suddenly...poof
Its been a worldwide trend. My niece sent me a Lowes florida sale going on with Disney merch, looks like those shipments arrived from overseas clogging up Disney warehouses. The normal routine was to send it to the outlets, but its now really dated.

[moonshinegnomie]

2. ive always paid attention to the ISM survey over the empire state survey

as long as that stays over 50 im not really worried about a recession

[mahatmakanejeeves]

3. It looks as if we last covered that on August 1.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/111693876

We have another couple of weeks until that comes back.

Thanks for writing.